In Arizona, Democrats could see opportunity in an 1864 abortion ban

Arizona Democrats are eager to battle over abortion access in the state, a political battleground where they will need every advantage to support President Biden and retain a key Senate seat.

But the battle lines have become increasingly confused amid a heated legal dispute over which Republican-backed restrictions will come into effect in November.

After the party introduced a 15-week abortion ban in 2022 with virtually no exceptions, with support from anti-abortion groups, some Republicans are now trying to get that law set aside. Instead, they favor an even more restrictive 19th century law that effectively bans the procedure altogether. And some Democrats, while strongly opposed to both measures, quietly acknowledge that a near-total ban could be a boon as they seek to inspire voters to vote.

Since the Supreme Court’s decision in the Dobbs case, which overturned Roe v. Wade and effectively returned the issue to the states, voters have overwhelmingly supported measures aimed at protecting abortion access, even in the Republican-led states. And if the stricter ban is upheld, “there is likely to be a benefit” to Democrats campaigning for abortion access, said Tresa Undem, a pollster who studies abortion.

“Certainly, if there is a total ban, voters will be mobilized on this issue,” Ms Undem said.

The unusual dynamic stems from various courts’ interpretations of Arizona’s 15-week ban, signed by former Gov. Doug Ducey a few months before the Dobbs ruling struck down the constitutional right to abortion. Republicans and supporters of the 15-week ban had intended the legislation to make way for restrictions enacted in 1864, when Arizona was still a territory.

That law, which requires prison time for anyone who helps a woman obtain an abortion and includes no exceptions for rape or incest, was reinstated in Arizona shortly after Roe was overturned, when a district court judge said it should take precedence get on the law. the 15-week ban. But an appeals court said months later that doctors could not be prosecuted under the territorial law, effectively allowing them to perform abortions again up to 15 weeks.

Now the focus shifts to the Arizona Supreme Court, which is likely to make a final ruling on the dueling abortion ban this summer after anti-abortion groups appealed the lower court’s ruling.

Arizona Democrats are well aware of the political consequences; it seems more likely that a more restrictive law would give pro-abortion voters access to the ballot box, which could put Democrats in power. But few in the state are willing to openly acknowledge the political calculus, and Democrats emphasized that the real consequences of women’s loss of access to abortion far outweigh any strategic judgments.

“Would it be easier to continue if there were a total abortion ban in Arizona? Sure, but that would be cataclysmically bad for the next nine months for the women of Arizona and that’s just not something I want to see happen in any way shape or form,” said Democratic Party candidate Conor O’Callaghan . primary to challenge Rep. David Schweikert, a Republican from a district northeast of Phoenix.

In addition, abortion rights groups in Arizona are collecting signatures for a ballot measure that would enshrine access to abortion until “fetal viability,” or about 24 weeks, in the state constitution, returning to the standard set by Roe v. Wade. The coalition, Arizona for Abortion Access, announced in January that it had already collected 250,000 signatures. Nearly 400,000 people are needed by July to get on the ballot and put the question to voters this fall.

Opponents of the measure argue that the proposed language is too broad and would “undermine common sense safety standards and precautions,” said Olivia Escovedo, spokeswoman for It Goes Too Far, the campaign fighting the measure.

Supporters say they are confident Arizonans would approve the measure if it were put to a vote. Dawn Penich, a spokeswoman for Arizona for Abortion Access, said she had heard from people who said they wanted the government to stay out of their health care decisions.

“This is a human rights issue, this is a women’s rights issue,” Ms. Penich said. “In Arizona, people really value their freedoms and their autonomy.”

Arizona Democrats could see an advantage at the ballot box because of the prominence of the abortion debate, said Christine Matthews, a national pollster who specializes in surveying female voters in swing states. But it may not be a panacea. When abortion access measures came up in recent elections, the issue has drawn moderate and conservative voters to the polls in greater numbers, across party lines.

“A total ban brings out a much broader coalition to undo that, but voters from centrism to center-right and Republicans could say, ‘A total ban is extreme, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to vote for Biden.’ said Mrs. Matthews.

Either way, Democrats are leaning heavily on their support for abortion access, while Republicans are trying to focus on the issue. Kari Lake, the Trump ally who ran for governor in 2022 and once called abortion the “ultimate sin,” now opposes a federal abortion ban. In an interview with NBC News this monthMs. Lake, who is running for Senate, praised the 15-week ban but also seemed open to the proposed ballot measure’s abortion limit. (Ms. Lake’s opponent, Representative Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, has vowed to protect access to abortion and has repeatedly hammered Ms. Lake for her past comments.)

And Mr. Schweikert, who co-sponsored a bill in Congress that would amount to a federal abortion ban, support expressed for in vitro fertilization treatments in February after an Alabama court ruled that frozen embryos must legally be considered children, putting the practice in jeopardy. Some feared that limiting IVF, the popular fertility treatment, would be a natural consequence of the Dobbs decision, but Republicans have largely been quick to take positions in favor of IVF.

Cathi Herrod, president of the Center for Arizona Policy, a conservative lobbying group that has supported both abortion bans in Arizona, said she expected voters in November would oppose expanding access to abortion in the state.

“Once Arizonans learn the extreme nature of this amendment, Arizonans will firmly reject it,” Ms. Herrod said, adding that they “will see that it does not reflect their position on abortion.”

The abortion debate has also divided the Arizona Legislature, which Republicans control by razor-thin margins in both chambers.

Eva Burch, a Democratic senator, couched the abortion debate in poignantly personal terms during a floor speech on Mondaywhich details the barriers she faced when trying to obtain an abortion for a recent pregnancy that she discovered had no chance of survival.

“My medical provider was forced to tell me several things that do not apply to my situation, and some of them are just transparently factually incorrect, and they are doing this because of laws passed by this legislature, as opposed to medical testimony and advice, ” said Mrs. Burch. “From where I sat, the only reason I needed to hear these things was a cruel and truly uninformed attempt by outside forces to shame, coerce and scare me.”