What you need to know about the elections in Indonesia

The numbers are staggering.

More than 100 million people are expected to vote, many for the first time. They do this in booths on thousands of islands and across three time zones, hammering nails into ballots to mark their choices. And within hours, if history is any guide, the world will know the outcome of the biggest race of the day: the Indonesian presidency.

Indonesia, the world's third-largest democracy, will hold its general elections on Wednesday. Election day is a national holiday and on average about 75 percent of eligible voters showed up. In addition to the president, voters also elect parliamentarians and local representatives.

This election season has raised fears that Indonesia, which was not so long ago an authoritarian state, is in danger of sliding back into its dark past. The potential consequences extend far beyond the country's borders. As one of the world's largest exporters of coal, nickel and palm oil, Indonesia has a major role to play in the climate change crisis.

And in the battle between the United States and China for influence in Asia, Indonesia is seen by American officials as a swing state. Under President Joko Widodo, ties with China have deepened significantly, but he has also maintained strong defense relations with Washington.

Here's what you need to know.

What is at stake?

The elections are widely seen as a referendum on the legacy of Mr Joko, who is stepping down after two five-year terms.

Often referred to as Jokowi, he remains hugely popular for transforming Indonesia into one of Southeast Asia's biggest economic success stories. He ushered in a universal health care system, built more than 1,000 miles of roads and highways, and oversaw respectable economic growth of about 5 percent per year.

His supporters say his job is not yet complete and that there are pressing issues, such as inequality and poverty, that still need to be addressed. Critics say that while Mr. Joko has boosted infrastructure and welfare programs, he has also presided over a backsliding on democratic norms. And now, they add, he is maneuvering to expand his influence over politics once he is no longer in office.

Mr Joko appears to be backing Prabowo Subianto, a former rival accused of human rights abuses, to become his successor, alarming even some of his supporters. The outcome of the election could determine the future of democracy in Indonesia, which has the world's largest Muslim population.

Who is running for president?

For the first time in fifteen years, voters can choose from three presidential candidates: Mr Prabowo, the current Minister of Defense; Anies Baswedan, the former governor of Jakarta; and Ganjar Pranowo, who governed Central Java.

A year ago, many Indonesians thought Mr. Ganjar — the candidate put forward by Mr. Joko's political party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle — was a shoo-in. But his reputation took a hit after he tried to ban an Israeli team from entering Indonesia to play in the Under-20 World Cup. That resulted in Indonesia losing the right to host the tournament, a blow for a football-obsessed country.

Then, in October, Mr. Joko's brother-in-law cast the deciding vote at the Constitutional Court for a rule change that would allow the president's 36-year-old son to run for vice-presidency. Mr Joko's son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, quickly joined Mr Prabowo's ticket, creating the impression that the president had used his influence to sway the court.

Mr. Prabowo has touted himself as the continuity candidate, saying this month that Mr. Joko's policies were “very, very beneficial to the entire people.” But he's a polarizing choice.

For many Indonesians, he symbolizes the brutal thirty-year rule of dictator Suharto. Mr Prabowo was married to one of Suharto's daughters and served as a general in his army, which was notorious for human rights abuses. In 1998, Mr. Prabowo was fired from the army for ordering the kidnappings of student activists.

Surveys show Mr. Prabowo with a wide lead in the polls, but it is less clear whether he will win more than 50 percent of the vote and at least 20 percent of the vote in 20 provinces, which would give him the presidency without he has to take care of that. must pass a second election in June.

Mr Ganjar has also pledged to continue most of Mr Joko's policies, albeit with adjustments. He is described as “Jokowi lite.” But analysts say he has struggled to articulate his message, with polls showing his support at around 20 percent.

Mr Anies was initially seen as a distant third in the race. As a former university rector, he was seen as too scientific to resonate with the masses. Many people in Jakarta highly regard him for implementing a rapid public transportation system and controlling the coronavirus pandemic. But his past ties to radical Islamist preachers have made many voters wary.

In recent weeks, momentum has been building for Mr Anies, who is campaigning on a platform for change. His performance in the recent debates has impressed Gen Z voters and highly educated urbanites. He has argued that Mr Joko's plan to move the capital to another island would not lead to equitable development and has warned against the return of nepotism.

Some recent surveys show Mr Anies ahead of Mr Ganjar, with support at around 22 percent.

The minimum voting age in Indonesia is 17, and people under 40 make up more than half of the voters. Surveys have shown that younger voters are concerned about the economy, education, employment and eradicating corruption.

What sets this election apart from others?

It is one of the most complex one-day elections in the world. About 205 million people are registered to vote on this vast archipelago of about 17,000 islands, of which about 7,000 are inhabited.

Six million election officials are spread across the country to ensure that as many people as possible have the opportunity to vote. Logistics have been a problem in some places: Officials have mounted horses, taken boats, flown by helicopter and traveled for hours to deliver ballots to voters.

“It is a huge, colossal task,” said Yulianto Sudrajat, a member of Indonesia's General Election Commission in charge of logistics.

Voters will mark their ballot paper by hammering nails into it, which election officials say is a fairer method than using a pen as some Indonesians are unfamiliar with writing instruments. As votes are counted, election officials hold up the ballots so people can see the light shining through the hole.

Unlike India, where national elections take place over several weeks, Indonesia votes in one day. In 2019, the process took such a toll that 894 election workers died, prompting the government to urge volunteers this time to undergo health screenings.

Although it takes weeks for the official vote count to be confirmed, results are generally known by the end of the day, based on so-called quick counts, a kind of exit poll. After polling stations close at 1pm Jakarta time, independent pollsters will count ballots from a sample of polling stations across the country.

In previous elections, the snap counts — released at 5 p.m. — have accurately reflected actual results.

Rin Hindryati And Hasya Nindita reporting contributed.