Intelligence officials warn of losses for Ukraine without more US aid

Senior intelligence officials warned Monday that without additional U.S. aid, Ukraine faced the prospect of continued battlefield losses as Russia relies on a network of crucial weapons suppliers and dramatically increases its supply of technology from China.

In public testimony during the annual review of global threats facing the United States, officials predicted that any continued delay in U.S. aid to Ukraine would lead to additional territorial gains for Russia in the coming year, with consequences not only in the United States would be felt. Europe, but also in the Pacific Ocean.

“Seeing ourselves moving away from support for Ukraine will not only fuel doubts among our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific; it will fuel the ambitions of the Chinese leadership in contingencies ranging from Taiwan to the South China Sea,” William J. Burns, the director of the CIA, told Congress.

The assessment marked a sharp turn from just a year ago, when the Ukrainian army appeared on the march and the Russians appeared to be retreating.

Over the course of just over two hours of testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Mr. Burns and Director of National Intelligence Avril D. Haines described an increasingly dire situation for Ukraine, in which Russia is producing far more artillery shells and has secured a steady supply of drones, grenades and other military supplies from two major suppliers.

“It is difficult to imagine how Ukraine can maintain the extremely hard-won progress it has made against the Russians, especially given the continued increase in Russian munitions production and purchases from North Korea and Iran,” Ms. Haines said.

Mr. Burns, who recently returned from his 10th visit to Ukraine, said the war there was at a crossroads, both for security in Europe and for American interests around the world.

If the House of Representatives were to approve the $60 billion in security aid to Ukraine that passed the Senate, Kiev could deal a strategic blow to Russia, Mr. Burns said.

“We believe that with additional assistance, Ukraine can hold its ground on the front line until 2024 and early 2025,” he said. “That Ukraine can continue to exact costs against Russia, not only with deep penetration attacks on Crimea, but also against its Black Sea Fleet.”

Over the past six months, Mr. Burns said, Ukraine has managed to sink 15 Russian ships.

With additional funding, Ukraine should be able to regain the “offensive initiative” by the end of this year or early 2025, Mr. Burns said. Such a shift, he added, would put Ukraine in a stronger position to negotiate with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

“Ukraine could assert itself as a strong, sovereign, independent country, anchor itself in Western institutions and have the space and security to recover from this terrible aggression and leave Russia to the long-term consequences of Putin’s brutal and foolish invasion. said Mr. Burns.

However, he made no mention of whether securing such space and security would ultimately require Ukraine to surrender territory in the south and east to Russia.

Intelligence officials referred only indirectly to the objective put forward by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III shortly after the war began in February 2022: that the West leave Russia in a condition that would prevent it from ever entering another neighboring country traps. .

Ms. Haines noted that Russia had suffered more military losses than at any time since World War II and had lost thousands of its most modern tanks and armored vehicles, “setting them back years.”

But both Ms. Haines and Mr. Burns appeared to recognize that Mr. Putin had a high tolerance for the economic pain of sanctions and the political risk of continued large numbers of casualties.

Instead, Mr. Burns described a situation on the ground that left Ukraine on the defensive, and perhaps even on the retreat. Without additional U.S. aid, Ukraine will lose significant ground this year, Burns said. He pointed to Ukraine’s hasty withdrawal from Avdiivka last month.

“Without additional aid in 2024, you will see more Avdiivkas,” he said. “And that would, it seems to me, be a huge and historic mistake for the United States.”