It’s 2024 and the candidates are campaigning at breakneck speed

Twelve days. Not that we count.

That’s how much time remains until Caucus Day in Iowa, where early voting will kick off the 2024 presidential race, when Republicans gather at gyms, community centers and churches across the state on Jan. 15.

The Republican hopefuls seeking to topple former President Donald J. Trump for the party’s nomination have already spent tens of millions of dollars and months campaigning across Iowa. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has at least four events planned for Wednesday, and Vivek Ramaswamy, the wealthy entrepreneur running for office, is keeping up a breakneck pace with his poll numbers barely budging. Mr. Trump, with polls looking insurmountable, has faced significantly less pressure to cross the state. But even Mr. Trump is heading to Iowa this week for campaign events.

Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador, has stormed Iowa and is battling Mr. DeSantis for second place. But she will campaign Wednesday in New Hampshire, the next state to vote in the Republican nominating contest and a state where she is pinning her hopes.

But they’re all staring straight at Trump, who persists daunting double-digit lead in polls in Iowa, despite 91 felony charges against him and after two states barred him from their primaries following the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol.

His campaign is seeking an upset victory in Iowa to shut out his rivals before most Republicans have a chance to vote in the primaries. Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis, who remain far behind Mr. Trump in the Iowa polls, appear to be competing fiercely for second place.

Mr. Ramaswamy, who has brashly promised a surprise appearance in the caucuses, is in a distant fourth place in Iowa, with less than 10 percent support. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, the race’s staunchest Trump critic, has not campaigned in Iowa and is in fifth place behind Mr. Ramaswamy, the race’s leading Trump supporter. Mr. Christie has instead staked his candidacy on the New Hampshire primary.

Iowa is not a particularly valuable state to win in the presidential nominating process. The state awards very few delegates, and the victor there is not assured of the party’s nomination. The last non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate to win the Iowa caucuses was George W. Bush in 2000.

Yet the state has a symbolic importance as the first votes cast in the country. The results could indicate signs of momentum, with candidates rising or falling as the battle moves to larger states.

But despite months of intensive campaigns and hundreds of millions of dollars spent, the race in Iowa has changed little from the summer, when hopefuls walked through the Iowa State Fair: Trump is still by far the favorite.

One exception was the rise of Ms. Haley and the decline of Mr. DeSantis. (They will compete in CNN town hall matchups on Thursday.) While Mr. DeSantis was widely seen as the clear No. 2 when he entered the race, Ms. Haley has overtaken him in the battle for second place.

That position is still far behind Trump’s, but observers are watching it closely: A strong performance by either candidate could put pressure on the other to resign, creating a stronger anti-Trump coalition can originate.