Iran's new missile fleet: part deterrent, part sales pitch

When Iran launched a barrage of airstrikes on Iraq, Syria and Pakistan this week, it not only showed off the range and sophistication of some of its latest missiles, but also made a claim: this is a new era in which Iran can show muscles. at will and, as a side benefit, to enhance its reputation as a major arms supplier.

In at least one of the attacks – an attack Tehran says targeted the Islamic State group in Idlib, Syria – Iran appeared to use one of its most advanced, longest-range missiles, the Kheibar Shekan. Both its range and apparent accuracy caught the attention of national security officials in Europe and Israel, as well as outside experts who track Iran's technological progress.

The combination of its latest missiles and its fleet of drones, which Russia has bought by the thousands for use in Ukraine, has helped Iran become the producer of some of the most advanced weapons in the Middle East.

And Tehran's willingness to intervene — as a supplier to its proxy forces in the region and to Moscow — could well complicate U.S. calculations as the Pentagon considers the question looming in the spreading Middle East conflict : could it lead to a direct conflict with Iran?

U.S. plans to counter Iran have long been based on the assumption that Tehran's ability to inflict pain beyond its borders had its limits.

The missiles had questionable accuracy and the drone program was still new. The most powerful weapons against the United States and its Western allies have largely been cyber weapons. Even then, although it had taken a few hits – crippling the Sands Casino, for example – Iran's global threat took a back seat to China and Russia.

But Iran's ability to market drones by the thousands surprised many officials. Now its missile capability is forcing the West to think about defenses and responses.

Mark Esper, one of President Donald J. Trump's defense secretaries, noted Wednesday that “Iran provides, supports, inspires and finances all of these activities” that have disrupted life in the Middle East and beyond, including the advance of the Houthis. attacks in the Red Sea.

“We need to, frankly, work with the Western democracies and the Arab states and come up with a plan to deal with Iran and stop these flows.” Mr. Esper told CNN.

After Iran launched a drone strike on a self-described terrorist group in Pakistan late Tuesday, Pakistan said Thursday it had retaliated with missile strikes on extremists in Iran.

Iran's willingness to fire volleys of missiles at its opponents, diplomats and experts agreed, is part expression of anger, part warning and part sales pitch to prospective customers.

The run-of-the-mill missile, such as those sold to Houthi rebels in Yemen or Hezbollah in Lebanon, can be combined with drones to overwhelm air defenses. But the Kheibar Shekan can strike further and with more accuracy than anything the Iranians have attempted in the past.

Unveiled in 2022, the Kheibar Shekan is a precision-guided solid-propellant missile with a range of 1,450 kilometers, or about 900 miles – meaning it can hit Israel. But what sets it apart from the rest of Iran's arsenal is that its warhead can nimbly maneuver with small aerodynamic fins to evade at least some traditional air defense systems.

The use of the missile, both when it was first deployed and again this week, indicates that it is a favored project of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a branch of Iran's military that develops missiles separately but in parallel. a programme run by the country's Ministry of Defense.

The decision to use the Kheibar Shekan in Syria this week, when a less advanced missile would have been just as effective, is seen as a sign that Iran may have been more interested in demonstrating its power to the West than in retaliating against an terrorist group.

“It was quite interesting to see that system being used,” said Fabian Hinz, a missile, drone and Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. He added: “There is the question of whether they may have chosen to test one of their most advanced missiles under combat conditions, or to send a message to Israel, or possibly both.”

In total, Iran has more than 3,000 ballistic missiles in its arsenal and is steadily expanding its stockpile of cruise missiles, the US said. intelligence and military estimates. Last year, Iran planned to spend 41 percent of its military budget on development and weapons production. according to the Emirates Policy Center, a research organization based in Abu Dhabi. By comparison, the main combat weapons, tanks and aircraft, are largely considered obsolete or obsolete.

Iranian missile production has increased dramatically over the past fifteen years as the weapons' precision, guidance and aerodynamics have improved significantly.

Over those years, Iran has shifted from a more defensive posture in the Middle East to one in which the Revolutionary Guards have taken on a more assertive role across the region, including by joining forces with other Shia Muslim militants in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.

This week's attacks were likely both an aggressive demonstration of Iran's technological advances and a reminder that the country is a regional power with an unapologetic willingness to strike.

“There was probably a feeling among Iranian leaders that they had to do something after the attacks,” said Mr. Hinz, the missile expert. “Maybe there was also the idea that because there are so many tensions in the region, Iran cannot be seen as a country that is sitting on its hands.”

Iran's ballistic missile program has grown from an arsenal of Scud missiles it acquired from Libya and North Korea in the 1980s to precision weapons guided by satellite and GPS navigation, or infrared seekers, to hit specific buildings. The stockpile consists of medium- and short-range missiles, including some designed to strike battlefield targets as close as 20 kilometers away.

Iran has also begun beefing up its land-attack cruise missile program, including one used by the Houthis known as Quds. Mr Hinz said the Houthis have claimed that new versions of that missile, either supplied by Iran or copied from an Iranian model, have a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles). Iran has said a variant in its own arsenal, the Paveh missile, has a range of about 1,650 kilometers.

The missile programs are a vital part of Iran's military and most likely a key reason why Tehran's defense budget will be the 10th largest in the world in 2022, according to the latest analysis from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

In recent weeks, Mr. Hinz and American intelligence officials say, Iran and Russia appear to have moved closer to an agreement that would expand their agreements on Iran's supply of drones to include ballistic missiles.

That could be decisive on the battlefield in Ukraine, where the Russians in recent weeks have turned to a strategy to try to overwhelm Western-supplied air defenses by firing barrages of missiles at major Ukrainian cities, industrial areas and ports.

Mr. Hinz said it was harder to know exactly which missiles Iran has given its Hezbollah allies, who are notoriously secretive about their capabilities. But the Kheibar Shekan – or at least an exact copy of it – has been displayed by the Houthis in Yemen.

The Kheibar Shekan is named after a seventh-century battle in which Muslim forces defeated Jewish tribes.

“So you can see the mission of the rocket,” Mr. Hinz said.