Deadly Iranian strike in Kurdistan fuels tensions in the region

A deadly Iranian ballistic missile attack in northern Iraq on Tuesday drove a wedge – at least temporarily – between Baghdad and Tehran, adding to the already volatile and tense situation in the Middle East.

The Iraqi government recalled its ambassador to Tehran and summoned Iran's chargé d'affaires to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Baghdad after at least eight ballistic missiles launched by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps overnight in Erbil, the capital of Iraq's Kurdistan region. the other day, killing four civilians. including an 11-month-old girl.

The strike took place amid widespread fears that Israel's devastating war could degenerate into an even deadlier confrontation. The war has already sparked a low-level regional conflict between Iranian proxy forces in Iraq, Syria and Yemen and the United States and other Western powers.

The United States, France and Britain denounced the latest Iranian attack, which shook Erbil and set off sirens at the US consulate and airport, forcing it to suspend flights.

“They contribute to the escalation of regional tensions and this must stop,” Catherine Colonna, France's minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, said in a statement, referring to Iran.

Iran said the attack was in retaliation for this month's suicide bombing that killed 84 people during a memorial parade for respected Iranian military leader Qassim Suleimani. Islamic State claimed responsibility for that attack. Other Iranian missiles on Tuesday targeted Idlib, Syria, where Islamic State continues to have a presence.

Iran also said the attack in Kurdistan targeted Israeli agents, who it claimed had been in Iraq and involved in the bombings.

Iraq's national security adviser Qassim Al-Araji said the statement was “baseless”, using the strongest language Baghdad has used against Iran, which has close political and military ties with the government in Tehran.

“The house that was bombed belonged to a civilian businessman,” said Mr. Araji, who rushed to Erbil from Baghdad a few hours after the bombing.

Mr. Araji, the Iraqi government's point man on a number of sensitive issues related to Iran, has a long history of close cooperation with Tehran and is rarely publicly critical. His comments on Tuesday suggested Baghdad felt it was being undermined by its neighbor.

Those killed in the strike included Peshraw Dizayee, a Kurdish businessman; his daughter, Zina; her nanny; and a visiting business acquaintance, Karam Mikhail.

Iran has sent conflicting signals about its overall intentions in the region, saying privately that it wants to avoid a wider conflict while making bullish statements to promote its proxy forces in the Middle East and making clear that it wants they retain power. putting pressure on Israel's allies through attacks on US bases and shipping lanes in the region.

Such regular attacks by Iranian allies and allies increase the risk of killing U.S. or allied troops or civilian sailors, which could make the situation more unstable and deadly.

The attack on Erbil may have been an attempt to convince the Iranians that despite the inability of Tehran's intelligence and security forces to prevent the attack on the memorial procession, the government was taking steps to punish the perpetrators, analysts said.

It is not the first time that the Revolutionary Guards have targeted Kurdistan. There were at least two attacks in 2022 and many during the 2019 Iranian protests, which Iranian government leaders said were encouraged by Iranian dissidents hiding in Kurdistan.

But this week's attack played into the fraught politics surrounding the Iraqi government's efforts to end the U.S. troop presence on its soil. U.S. troops have been in Iraq since 2014 to help the country fight the remnants of Islamic State and suppress its return.

Iran also wants US troops to withdraw because it considers their presence a security risk as the two countries are enemies. Iraq is in the middle of it.

Iraq's parliament – ​​which now includes many lawmakers with ties to Iran – recently voted in favor of the troops' departure. After a US strike killed a leader of an Iran-linked militia in Baghdad, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani announced his intention to determine how to carry out the troop departure and set up a committee to work out the details to work. .

He did not give a date, but recent interviews by The New York Times with many of the people involved have suggested that, unlike in the past, when the Iraqi government said it wanted the troops to leave, it did little to achieve that goal , this time , it's serious.

But Tuesday's strike could significantly complicate negotiations.

One of the obstacles to negotiating a departure — in addition to concerns about an Islamic State resurgence — has been the Kurds, who have a close relationship with the United States and have benefited from the continued American presence. U.S. forces protected the Kurds in 2014, when Islamic State militants came within miles of the Kurdish capital. Kurdish leaders were already reluctant to approve the departure of American troops, but the attack on the Kurdish capital seemed to deepen that understanding.

“We do not think that terrorism has ended, and last night's event is an indication that instability in the region is still very much at stake,” said Masrour Barzani, the Prime Minister of Kurdistan, who strongly condemned the attack on Erbil during a meeting. news briefing while attending the 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

In response to a reporter's question about whether that instability would require keeping U.S. troops in place, he added: “We need international cooperation and support to bring greater stability to Iraq and the region as a whole.” to take.”

Falih Hassan contributed reporting from Baghdad, and Kamil Kakol from Sulimania.