Welcome to Japan, where the bad news is the good news

The economy is now in recession, after decades of barely growing. The population continues to shrink, with births hit rock bottom last year. The country’s politics seem frozen because one party effectively holds power, no matter how scandalous and unpopular that party becomes.

But do not worry. This is Japan, where all bad news is relative.

Take a look around. There are few signs of the social divisions you would expect in a country with trend lines like Japan’s, such as trash piles, potholes or picket lines. The country remains remarkably stable and coherent, with little sense of impending doom.

That equanimity reflects the no-rock mentality: “Shouganai” – “nothing can be done about it” – is a kind of national refrain.

It’s easy to understand why people can be nonchalant. Unemployment is low, the trains run on time and the cherry blossoms bloom every spring. Tourists are flooding the shrines and shopping areas and the stock market is at an all-time high. Even after some inflation, a bowl of ramen can be had for less than $7, or a multi-plate lunch for around $12. Housing is generally affordable, even in Tokyo, and everyone is covered by national health insurance. Crime is low: in 2022, there were only three gun murders in all of Japan. If you forget your cell phone at a restaurant, chances are it will still be there when you return.

“I’m quite satisfied with my living conditions,” said Chihiro Tsujimoto, 26, a classical music percussionist who emerged from a movie theater with his sister last week in Chofu, western Tokyo. Japanese, he said, “have given up and feel quite happy as long as their lives are full and happy.”

“I think Japan is at peace,” he added. “So the young generation doesn’t feel like they have to change this country.”

That soothing sense of calm is reinforced by an outside world plagued by wars and social challenges.

“I often have business trips to the US and Europe, and I feel that Japanese society and system are very stable compared to other countries with different problems such as immigrants, high crime rates and riots,” said Hisashi Miwa, 65, who works for a chemical manufacturer and was shopping for toilet paper in Setagaya, also in western Tokyo.

Yet many deep-seated problems remain beneath Japan’s calm surface. With its intense work culture and social pressure, Japan is among the unhappiest developed countries, according to an annual report UN-backed reportand suicide is a major problem. Gender inequality is deep-rooted and slow to change, and the poverty rate among single-parent families is one of the highest among rich countries. Rural areas are rapidly becoming empty, and an aging population will continue to increase pension and healthcare costs.

By next year, nearly one in five people in Japan will be 75 or older, a phenomenon that will increasingly expose labor shortages in a country struggling to accept and integrate immigrants. Gaps in service delivery are already emerging in some of the country’s most esteemed institutions.

“It takes four to five days to receive a letter,” said Sayuri Shirai, a professor of policy management at Keio University, referring to Japan’s postal service, which reliably delivered letters a day after they were sent.

When she has problems with cable TV or other utilities, she said, “Sometimes you want to ask questions on the phone, but there are no more phone-related services.”

“I can really see that they don’t have people,” Ms. Shirai said. “The quality of service is no longer that good.”

However, such inconveniences are more of an annoyance than a sign of impending societal collapse. Japan’s decline has been gradual, and in some ways barely noticeable, after the country experienced tremendous growth in prosperity in the decades following World War II.

The economy – now the fourth largest in the world after dipping below Germany’s this month – has been up and down but has largely weathered public debt at record highs. highest in the world. The population is declining by about half a percent a year, but Tokyo remains the most populous city in the world, people queue for an hour to score a trendy donut and reservations at the top restaurants must be made weeks in advance. Prime ministers may come and go, but they are expendable emissaries of the status quo.

“I think everyone kind of knows what’s coming our way, but it’s happening so slowly that it’s very difficult to advocate for massive change one way or another,” said Mieko Nakabayashi, a professor of politics at Waseda University in Tokyo.

Even those who think Japan could use a shake-up are resigned rather than radicalized.

“I thought the Japanese were a little smarter, but our economy, once said to be first rate, is now second or third rate, and our government may not even be fourth or fifth rate,” he said. Fuchi Beppu, 76, a retired hotel worker who was walking near Yokohama Station last week.

He said he felt sorry for his children and grandchildren and the future that awaited them.

“At the end of the day, it’s a democracy,” he said. “So I guess the level of government reflects the level of citizens.”

That government was led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for almost the entire post-war period.

The party’s disapproval ratings are now very high – based on a newspaper poll, the highest since 1947. But even if people get frustrated with the LDP, in the end “they don’t really care, as long as they can survive and deal with the day-to-day life isn’t like that.” bad,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo. “That is why LDP politics is very stable.”

The current disapproval ratings reflect the public’s exasperation over a financial scandal that has gripped the Japanese media but is too secretive for most of the general public to follow in detail.

Late last fall, allegations emerged that several factions within the LDP had failed to record the full amount of proceeds from ticket sales to political fundraisers. In some cases, it appeared that lawmakers received kickbacks from some of the sales, and prosecutors have indicted three lawmakers, accusing them of violations of the Political Funds Control Act.

But unlike in other countries where politicians have been accused of outrageous acts of corruption, the Japanese media has unearthed relatively tame evidence of campaign gifts and dinners. Some news reports suggested that a lawmaker may have used the political money to buy books, including thousands of copies of a title he wrote himself.

With the political opposition in disarray, it appears the LDP will once again outlive one of its many own objectives. One reason: Voters just aren’t very connected.

“I don’t know who my mayor is or watch the news much,” said Mr. Tsujimoto, the percussionist. “I just watch internet news for things like when a new animal baby is born in a zoo.”