JASON GROVES: Judging by the panicked reaction of Sir Keir Starmer – shattering the D-Day political truce – he knows the £2,000 tax hike row is cutting through

The political truce established for the D-Day commemorations was broken yesterday as Sir Keir Starmer climbed off a landing craft in Portsmouth and told reporters Rishi Sunak was a liar.

Why was the normally mild-mannered Labor leader so angry?

Having allowed the Prime Minister to take his first major blow of the election campaign the night before by not questioning his claim, Labour’s plans will cost the average family £2,000 in extra tax.

During Tuesday evening ITV During the debate, Mr Sunak could hardly believe his luck as he was able to make the claim dozens of times without serious opposition.

Why was the normally mild-mannered Labor leader so angry? Because the night before he had delivered his first major blow to the Prime Minister

When Sir Keir Starmer climbed off a landing craft in Portsmouth and told reporters Rishi Sunak was a liar

The labor strategists became so concerned that an assistant was sent to speak to Sir Keir during the break. Only then did he finally describe the claim as “absolute nonsense” – and even that is not a denial in the Westminster lexicon.

Realizing the threat too late, Labor attack dog Jonathan Ashworth was dispatched yesterday morning to dismiss the figure as a ‘lie’. By midday, Labor’s concern that this figure was taking hold was so great that the leader himself decided to repeat the inflammatory accusation as the country commemorated the 80th anniversary of D-Day.

The problem for Labor is that the £2,000 figure cannot easily be dismissed as a ‘lie’. It is based on a document released by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in May after months of work by Treasury officials. The dossier analyzes 27 Labor tax and spending pledges and identifies a £38.5 billion ‘black hole’. The bill equates to £2,094 per working household over four years.

Calculating the exchequer costs for opposition policies has been a common practice for forty years and was regularly employed by Gordon Brown.

Some of the assumptions used come from political advisors at the Ministry of Finance. But in this case they appear to have been cautious. For example, officials could have based the cost of Labour’s proposal to provide free school breakfast clubs on a 100 per cent take-up. Instead, they have assumed that only half of all children will benefit, which will cost £1.5 billion a year by 2028. Labor itself has not provided any figures.

Labor yesterday seized on a letter from Treasury permanent secretary James Bowler distancing his officials from the figures.

The labor strategists became so concerned that an assistant was sent to speak to Sir Keir during the break. Only then did he finally describe the claim as ‘absolute nonsense’

It is true that not all data came from the Ministry of Finance, although most did. Adding up costs over four years is also a tactic that is unlikely to gain the approval of nonpartisan officials. The amount of £2,000 is based on an average of £500 per year over four years. Sharp political practice perhaps, but not a ‘lie’.

Lord O’Donnell, who served as permanent secretary at the Treasury under Mr Brown, described the practice as “one of the nastiest processes I have ever been involved in”.

It is no surprise that Whitehall mandarins describe the political process as ‘grubby’. But that doesn’t mean the £2,000 figure isn’t a useful indicator that Labor has dramatically underestimated the true cost of its plans.

And judging by Sir Keir’s panicked reaction yesterday, he already knows it could stick.

Debate viewing figures down on Boris v Corbyn

TV election debates became part of the political landscape in 2010, when the first of the televised exchanges attracted almost 10 million viewers

The first live TV debate between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer was watched by an average of 4.8 million viewers, more than two million fewer than in 2019.

Tuesday night’s showdown, which featured combative exchanges on issues such as tax increases and immigration, aired at 9pm and lasted more than an hour. But the audience fell far short of the almost 6.9 million who watched Boris Johnson play Jeremy Corbyn in the opening televised debate in 2019, including on ITV.

TV election debates became part of the political landscape in 2010, when the first of the televised exchanges attracted nearly 10 million viewers.