MARK ALMOND: This flashpoint in Yemen could turn into a global conflict: China could send in its navy after US-British attacks on Iran-backed Houthi rebels. We must remember that it is easy to get into a war. It can take years to get out

We are waking up to the news that the RAF and our US allies are bombarding Houthi strongholds across Yemen with a series of devastating airstrikes.

For weeks, the bloodthirsty Yemeni militia has been attacking Western shipping in the region, disrupting international supply chains and causing millions, if not billions, of dollars in damage to the global economy.

After the group's leaders ignored repeated warnings from Western leaders to stop their attacks, and following an emergency Cobra meeting called by the Prime Minister last night, hellfire explosions have rocked Yemen. The death toll will certainly be high.

But what is the prospect of success?

It's easy to get into a war. It can take years to get out. And I fear that even highly effective attacks will not be able to neutralize the Houthis immediately, threatening further escalation.

Huthi fighters brandish their weapons during a march in solidarity with the Palestinian people in the Huthi-controlled capital Sanaa on January 11

A plane takes off to join the US-led coalition to carry out airstrikes on military targets in Yemen, a photo released Friday shows

The bitter lessons of Iraq should have taught us that local fires could soon engulf the wider region – and with the planet so unstable, amid flashpoints from NATO's eastern flank to the Taiwan Strait, the risk that other actors are involved, all too clearly.

Let me emphasize: the Houthis are not ragtag militias armed with scavenged artillery. They are highly motivated, battle-hardened and lavishly funded by Iran's Islamic mullahs.

Tehran funded the group through a long war with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, from 2015 until a ceasefire last year. An estimated 300,000 people were killed – but the Houthis emerged victorious.

This bitter conflict was fought against much wealthier neighbors, armed with the latest Western arsenal, including fighter-bombers and every explosive device short of nuclear weapons. They have already withstood much of the heaviest bombing that Britain and the US can muster.

So it would be a fatal mistake to equate the Houthis with their counterparts across the Red Sea: Somali pirates who threaten shipping. Pirates just want loot, and they'll quit when they get it. Houthi leaders want, among other things, the large-scale destruction of Israel.

Their coast is nearly 1,500 miles from Gaza City, but the Houthis see themselves as part of a global Islamist army waging war against Israel and the West. When asked last week why they wanted to get involved in a war so far away, a Houthi warlord replied: “Does US President Biden live in the same apartment building as Israeli Netanyahu?”

An unverified image appeared to show the result of British and American airstrikes in Yemen this evening

HMS Diamond, a £1 billion Type 45 destroyer known as the jewel of the Royal Navy, blasted targets on Tuesday with a barrage of sea viper missiles – which travel three times the speed of sound

Last night the RAF launched targeted attacks on Houthi military facilities in response to a series of attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea

Burning in an RAF airstrike means martyrdom and paradise for Houthi fighters: many will happily fight to the death.

The narrow stretch of water they attacked – the 'Gates of Grief' or Bab al-Mandab Strait – is the jugular vein of global shipping. It is less than 20 miles wide and narrower than the English Channel, but 12 percent of international maritime freight passes through it.

So these airstrikes are unlikely to convince global shipping giants, many of whom now avoid the region at significant cost, that stability has been restored.

If disruptions worsen, Britain's oil and natural gas supplies will be seriously affected, as will the supply of computers, smartphones and virtually every other import. Inflation will rise again.

The costs of these attacks are already serious. On Tuesday, the Houthis launched attack drones on NATO ships at a cost of just $500 each. The Royal Navy Type 45 air defense destroyer HMS Diamond shot down seven using its guns and Sea Viper missiles costing more than £1 million each – not to mention the price of the unfolding aerial bombardment.

While international attention is focused on Gaza, hostilities at the Gates of Grief have been escalating since November. In late 2023, US Navy helicopters sank three Houthi speedboats, killing their crews, in a failed attack on a container ship.

Before that, a freighter registered in Britain and Japan was hijacked and the civilian crew taken hostage. Palestinian and Yemeni flags were raised in triumph and Houthi leaders claimed the ship was Israeli, although Tel Aviv denies this.

The only major maritime power so far not involved in this growing conflict is China. Houthi attacks have avoided Chinese shipping, but whether this is due to a secret agreement or just a sign of caution from the Yemenis is unclear.

What is also unclear is how Beijing will respond to a pre-emptive strike by the West on Houthi bases. One possible outcome is that China could seize the opportunity to intervene, with its extensive fleet helping to keep the peace – but this is not necessarily the desirable outcome it seems.

The last thing we need is for the world's superpowers vying for influence to fail to cooperate in this increasingly volatile theater of war.

Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute, Oxford.