Title 42 is gone, but not the conditions that drive migrants to the US

Relative calm has reigned along the southern US border since Friday, despite widespread fears that ending a pandemic-era policy of immediately deporting most migrants, even asylum seekers, would trigger a stampede from Mexico.

Indeed, there was a wave of migrants leading up to the expiration of the pandemic-era eviction policy known as Title 42. Uncertain about the impact of new deterrent measures, migrants braved turbulent rivers, cut concertina wire and scaled the steel border wall encircling the United States. Reaching states and turning themselves in to US Border Patrol agents. On some days last week, detentions reached about 11,000, one of the highest on record.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said on Sunday that officers detained just 6,300 migrants on Friday and 4,200 on Saturday. The Biden administration’s new policy, combining the carrot of new legal roads with the stick of more punitive measures for illegal crossings, worked, Mayor Mayorkas said in televised interviews.

Most migrants now have to prove that they were first denied asylum in a country they passed through on their way to the United States. And they could face criminal charges, lengthy detention and a five-year ban from re-entry.

But the calm can be the calm before another storm.

The economic, political, and environmental forces driving people to the United States are not likely to abate in the coming months, and the new US policies may not all hold up. Minutes after the new policy went into effect, immigrant advocacy groups sued for a provision designed to discourage asylum seekers from coming to the border, similar to a transit ban enacted during the Trump administration. And hours before Title 42 expired, a federal judge in Florida issued an order prohibiting the release of migrants from U.S. custody with no court dates. (The U.S. government is challenging the decision.)

Beyond US borders, political instability, gang violence and climate change will continue to drive emigration.

Much of the developing world, from Africa and Asia to South America and the Caribbean, is still reeling from the economic downfall wrought by Covid-19 and exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

“Everyone is looking at the arrivals at the border, but the root of the problem is push factors within the countries of origin that will persist,” said Justin Gest, a political scientist at George Mason University who studies immigration. “When crises occur, they generate flows to the north,” he said.

In recent years there has been a growing exodus from problem countries in the Western Hemisphere, such as Venezuela, Cuba and Haiti. Unlike Europe, where multiple countries are potential destinations for migrants, in the Western Hemisphere almost all roads lead to one country, the United States.

And beyond the factors that drive migrants from their home countries, the labor market is the magnet that draws people to the United States. Unemployment is at its lowest level in decades, yet there are millions of unfilled jobs.

“There has never been a better time for migrants to seek employment in the US,” said Wayne Cornelius, an immigration scholar and professor emeritus at the University of California, San Diego.

“Even most asylum seekers are strongly motivated by the prospect of a higher-paying job, and many have contacts that can quickly direct them to job opportunities,” he said.

The Biden administration’s policy is aimed at deterring migrants from making their way to the border.

So while Title 42 is no longer in effect, other new restrictions are. Migrants are not allowed to apply for asylum at the border unless they prove that a country they have traveled through has denied them protection. Exceptions are only made under extraordinary circumstances, such as medical conditions, or for asylum seekers who have used a mobile app to make an appointment at an official port of entry. So far, the number of appointments has been extremely limited.

The Biden administration has announced it will open regional centers, starting in Colombia and Guatemala, where migrants can apply for refugee status and undergo initial screening to qualify for legal entry into the United States. Canada and Spain have agreed to take in some of these asylum seekers.

Mr Gest, the political scientist, said the United States wants to spread responsibility for taking in so many migrants, “but it’s not clear if that’s going to work.”

Since the beginning of this year, Washington has been encouraging Venezuelans, Cubans, Nicaraguans and Haitians to apply for a “humanitarian parole” program that would allow them to fly directly to the United States and stay there for two years, if they have a financial sponsor. to have.

But many migrants come from countries not covered by the program, such as Colombia, Ecuador and Honduras. And even for the four targeted countries, the number of people trying to access exceeds 30,000 monthly slots, and many people don’t qualify because they don’t have connections in the United States.

Shauyuri Mejias, 48, from Venezuela, studied the program but realized she couldn’t participate. So she traveled with her son, daughter-in-law and grandchild through the treacherous Darien Gap, a jungle that stretches across Colombia and Panama.

“We are the first generation of our family to come to the United States. We don’t have anyone here to lean on,” said Mrs. Mejias, sitting on the bottom bunk in an El Paso shelter.

The Mejias family managed to use the government’s app to book an interview at a port of entry and crossed the border before Title 42 was lifted. However, among the many frustrated migrants who have gathered in Mexico, patience will run out. Historically, there is no conclusive evidence that more aggressive enforcement and tougher sanctions deter mass migration.

El Paso, one of the hardest hit border towns in recent months, recorded a sharp drop in migrant arrests, to just 639 on Saturday, according to internal data shared with The New York Times, compared to 2,131 on May 10. But that masks potential challenges to come.

US intelligence estimates that there were 60,000 to 65,000 migrants on the Mexican side of the border, said Raul Ortiz, the border police chief. Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said smuggling networks were spreading misinformation that the border would be open once Title 42 expired.

A renewed wave could deepen both the humanitarian crisis and the political headache for the Biden administration. In recent weeks, shelter managers and doctors in border towns have reported a spike in hospitalizations for injuries sustained by migrants climbing the border wall.

While climbing the towering steel barrier under cover of darkness, Rosmarie Cepeda slipped and fell to the ground on the El Paso side of the border, shattering her left foot. She underwent surgery and would take six months to recover. The 40-year-old Venezuelan chef said she decided to take a chance after failing to make an appointment through the mobile app.

“I was determined to go to the United States. I have three children in Venezuela who depend on me, said Ms. Cepeda, who is recovering in a church shelter and has to use a wheelchair.

A new large influx would put a strain on border processing centers. To reduce overcrowding, migrants have sometimes been released without a date to report to immigration court for hearings.

That practice is coming under fire from Republicans as they prepare to put immigration at the center of their 2024 election campaigns.

If legal challenges offer facilities dangerously overcrowded, the optics will hurt the government, said Stuart Anderson, executive director of the National Foundation for American Policy, a think tank. “The American public will blame the president.”