Latino organizers say Republicans took a risk by ignoring Nevada
Four years ago, East Las Vegas, Nev., was a hub for presidential candidates engaged in heavy retail politics. This year it was anything but.
In 2020, Democrats came to the state months before the state's first presidential caucuses: Joe Biden, then a former vice president, selfies taken at a well-known taco spot; Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont held a “Unidos con Bernie” football tournament; And four candidates picked up next to a powerful union dominated by Latinas.
But as the 2024 election approached and a number of Republicans lined up to challenge former President Donald J. Trump, things were visibly different. There were no campaign signs along the area's malls. There were no ads for Republican presidential candidates on the air. With attention on the Super Bowl taking place in the city this weekend, many Latino voters in Clark County were unaware of the political contests also taking place this week.
The reason: Nevada's Republican Party split the nominating contests in two, rendering a state-run primary meaningless on Tuesday and holding a separate caucus on Thursday that essentially left Trump running unopposed. As a result, the candidates largely ignored the state — and, many Latino organizers argued, Republicans overall missed an opportunity to reach a key voting group early.
Nearly a dozen community leaders said the complicated dual battle had also created confusion among many Latinos, which could deter potential new voters from participating and make them less likely to return in the fall.
“Voters, especially Latino and Hispanic voters, are really paying attention now, more than ever before — so that means they're paying attention to the fact that they were ignored,” said Peter Guzman, the president of the Latin Chamber of Health. Commerce, Nevada, who identifies as a moderate conservative.
“I want them to be present and intentional,” he said of the Republican candidates, “and I think ignoring our state, ignoring a large portion of voters, is a big mistake.” Changes to the primary process, he added, caused “a lot of confusion in the Hispanic community.”
Nevada is the first state where Latino voters make up a large portion of the electorate, accounting for 20 percent of voters. That constituency has been heavily squeezed by presidential candidates from both parties in recent elections, a testament to the group's growing power as Nevada has become a contentious battleground where small shifts can determine the winner of a close race.
You only have to look at the recent past to see why starting early in Nevada can matter: In 2020, candidates flocked to the state ahead of competitive primaries, during which many made reaching Latino voters a priority. That initial outlay helped fuel the party's efforts for the rest of that year, ultimately helping Biden win the general election with support from Latino voters.
Democrats competing in Nevada have historically gained more support among Latino voters, building on years of organizing and alignment on issues like immigration policy. But Republican efforts to reach them intensified in 2016, during the competitive presidential primaries, when candidates like Trump and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio met with community leaders and sent frequent mailers.
And recent polls have shown that Democrats could be losing ground among some Latino voters — some disillusioned with their economic prospects or a lack of action on immigration, while others are looking for a strong stand against what they regard as communism.
Maria Salazar, who heads Latino outreach for the super PAC supporting Nevada's Republican Governor Joseph Lombardo, said the state's fast-growing Latino population means the two parties are “more locked in a race than ever to reach as many Latino voters as possible. But she described the Republican nominating contests as “confusing” for some, and said it has been a “learning process” for new Republican voters unfamiliar with the system.
Communication between this year's Republican slate of candidates and Latino voters has been sparse.
Although Mr. Trump, the Republican front-runner, has made a handful of appearances in Nevada, the number of trips pales in comparison to his activities in other early battleground states. His remaining rival, Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, has, according to her campaign, “not spent a penny or an ounce of energy on Nevada” — and faced a devastating second-place finish behind “none of these candidates.” option in Tuesday's primaries, in which Mr. Trump did not participate. He will participate in Thursday's caucuses, where Ms. Haley is not on the ballot.
Many of the other candidates who dropped out earlier had also rarely set foot in the Silver State, a shift from 2020, when some candidates left a year in advance. And neither Mr. Trump nor Ms. Haley had made any ad buys in Nevada in the final months before the election, according to data from AdImpact, a media tracking company.
The minimal investment may have contributed to a lack of awareness among voters on Tuesday, when the first primaries took place. Voters were in short supply at several polling places in Latino-dominated parts of Clark County in the final hours before polls closed. When a Times reporter spoke to more than a dozen patrons at a Hispanic grocery store in East Las Vegas, the majority said they did not know a contest was taking place. Only one said he had participated in the primaries: Jose Alonso, 66, who voted for Mr. Biden.
Mr. Trump's allies have pointed out his improved support among Nevada Latinos during his last campaign, as well as his dominant frontrunner status in the Republican Party primaries, as evidence that his relative absence from the state would not affect his success in the fall. He won 37 percent of Nevada's Latino vote in 2020, an increase of eight percentage points from the 29 percent he received in 2016.
“He's already dealing with general campaign issues — he's already in general mode with Nevada,” said Jesus Marquez, a political consultant and Trump surrogate.
Mr. Marquez, who for years helped lead Latino outreach efforts for Mr. Trump and other Republicans in Nevada, said he had instead focused in recent months on outreach to churches in the state.
In the absence of presidential candidates communicating Republican positions to Latino voters, a handful of groups have stepped in. Americans for Prosperity, the group founded by conservative industrialists Charles and David Koch, and the Libre Initiative, an affiliated wing that reaches Latinos, have worked in Nevada to negatively portray the Biden administration's economic approach as Nevada has faced high prices and unemployment rates.
“Any time we fail to engage voters who will feel the impact directly — more than perhaps any other demographic group — is a huge missed opportunity to connect,” said Ronald Najarro, AFP Nevada director. Underscoring that sentiment, the Libre Initative released a seven-page memo to both parties on Wednesday, saying that to reach Latino voters, Republicans must “increase tactical investments earlier and more often.”
Eddie Diaz, the strategic director of the Libre Initiative in Nevada, said the group focused on campaigning for Sam Brown, one of the Nevada candidates vying to challenge Sen. Jacky Rosen. His group has heard from moderate Latino voters who don't want a rematch between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, and he suggested that a new Senate candidate might drive those voters to the polls.
Latino groups tied to Democratic interests say the confusion Republicans caused among their voters was just the latest sign of dysfunction. They have used the lack of activity to prepare their own operations to educate voters and have pushed back on suggestions that Latinos are backing Republicans en masse, while echoing the Biden administration's sentiment: that Trump's comments about immigrants would hurt Latinos scare off.
“That rhetoric turns them off and makes you not trust the person delivering the message,” said Manuel Santamaria, Nevada state director for Mi Familia Vota, a national Latino voting group.
However, some groups argued that voters are giving short shrift. Lack of involvement from national Republicans, some say, ignores a truth about Nevada's electorate: that it is constantly changing, meaning candidates in each cycle must prepare to engage constituencies that may not have been there before.
“The shortsightedness that the Democratic and Republican parties are facing by not investing early in the primaries and caucus contests is that a lack of excitement is contagious,” said Leo Murrieta, executive director of Make the Road Nevada, a liberal advocacy group that focuses on Latinos. “It will make it much harder to engage people as we get closer to the general election and explain to them that their vote matters, that they have a role to play in shaping our democracy.”