What to watch in Nevada's weird election week

The divisive Republican presidential nominating contest playing out in Nevada this week – a non-binding primary on Tuesday and a caucus on Thursday – was orchestrated by Republican leaders to ensure another delegate victory for Donald J. Trump in his march to the nomination .

Nikki Haley, the former United Nations ambassador, isn't even spending time or money in Nevada and is turning her attention to the primaries later this month in South Carolina, her home state. The contest has given Trump's last remaining rival the opportunity to borrow a phrase from the former president.

Nevada has been “rigged for Trump,” Ms. Haley’s campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, told reporters in a conference call on Monday, adding: “We have not spent a dime or an ounce of energy on Nevada.”

Given all this — and the fact that Trump has already scored big victories in Iowa and New Hampshire — the Nevada contests are not expected to be a turning point in a race that many Republicans already think is all but over. . Polls show Trump with a large lead over Ms. Haley in South Carolina.

But it does have some capacity to reveal more about voters — and not just any voters, but swing-state voters. And it may not be a total breakout for Ms. Haley.

Perhaps more than that, the Nevada race has emerged as an objective lesson of what Mr. Trump — who for years has accused Democrats of tampering with election rules — has done, in the courts and through aggressive use of party lines , to ensure he wins his party's nomination. (There is also a Democratic primary, but President Biden has the field virtually to himself).

Here are some things to look out for:

Two games?

Yes indeed. There is a primary, as mandated by the state legislature. But the Republican Party has challenged that in court and won the right to hold its own party primaries to select the delegates Nevada will send to the Republican convention this summer. Hence a primary one day and a caucus two days later.

The primaries will be held by mail and in person and are expected to draw thousands of voters.

Caucuses, on the other hand, are tightly controlled affairs and will attract a much smaller number of voters. They were created and led by Trump's allies in the Nevada Republican Party.

Look at the first contest as a benchmark for how much support Ms. Haley can muster without spending a lot of money or campaigning. But look at the second if you want to know what really matters: the delegates Trump continues to roll towards the nomination.

Dare we say rigged?

That's what Ms. Haley's campaign called it on Monday. “And to be frank, it's rigged,” said Rebecca Gill, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “It was designed to deliver all the congressional votes to Donald Trump.” Under Republican Party rules, candidates can participate in either the primary or the caucus, but not both. Mr. Trump's name will appear in the caucus, and Ms. Haley is on the primary ballot, under the assumption that she could never overcome Trump's forces in a caucus.

It seems important to point out that while this contest has been described as rigged — which basically means the outcome is predetermined — there is nothing illegal about what the Trump campaign is doing. She has used the courts and her allies in the party to bend the rules in her favor. That's what campaigns do.

And Mr. Trump's campaign disputed the idea that it manipulated the outcome, noting that the caucus system was created by Nevada's Republican leaders. “I can't help it if in Nevada the vast majority of Republicans work and vote for Donald Trump and not Nikki Haley,” said Chris LaCivita, Mr. Trump's senior campaign adviser. “The fact that the system is this way means nothing other than that the system is this way. It's really a shame that they say that.”

Are there possibilities for surprises?

Prepare for a blizzard of numbers from the Haley and Trump camps to try to present the results as a victory. Yes, Mr. Trump will capture the delegates; but it is conceivable that Ms. Haley will walk away on Tuesday with more actual votes than Mr. Trump will get in the caucus on Thursday. That's because there will almost certainly be more Nevadans participating in these primaries than will bother going to a caucus.

Should Ms. Haley receive more votes, she could certainly present this as a victory, a sign of her popularity with a broader electorate. After recovering from losses in Iowa and Hampshire, she is understandably looking for even a glimmer of good news that could help her build support in her home state.

The Trump forces aren't leaving this to chance: They're encouraging voters to show up at the primaries and vote for “None of these candidates,” a de facto line on the ballot. If Ms. Haley loses to the “none of these candidates” line on Tuesday, it will be another difficult outcome for her.

And anyway, it's the 26 deputies that matter.

The future of Nevada

Political leaders and analysts have long sought to boost Nevada's importance in the presidential selection process. Longtime Nevada political commentator Jon Ralston calls it the “#wematter” reads. The truth is that the split system has dropped Nevada a few rungs on the #wematter ladder of political importance.

“It has seriously jeopardized Nevada's interest in this year's nomination process,” Ms. Gill said. “Regular voters in Nevada are used to being inundated with ads this time of year. We didn't get anything difficult from anyone.”

But rest assured, Nevadans: this is unlikely to last long. Nevada may not be important in choosing the two party nominees. But it is one of the few critical states that will decide November's general election. Mr. Biden won Nevada in 2020 with 50.1 percent of the vote.

Look no further than who's been in Las Vegas the past two weeks: President Biden and Donald J. Trump.

Jonathan Weisman reporting contributed.