Oscars 2024 early predictions: Barbie vs. Oppenheimer, Nolan vs. Scorsese – who will win?

Check out the early winners’ predictions for the 96th Academy Awards, taking place on March 11.

Los Angeles: Ahead of the 96th Academy Awards on March 10, Associated Press film writers Jake Coyle and Lindsey Bahr share their predictions.

BEST PHOTO
Nominees: “American Fiction”; “Anatomy of a Fall”; “Barbie”; “The Remains”; “Killers of the Flower Moon”; “Maestro”; “Oppenheimer”; “Past Lives”; “Poor things”; “The zone of interest.”

BAHR: It will be ‘Oppenheimer’. It’s not just because the film won all the other major awards: this is recognition that has been long overdue for Christopher Nolan and Emma Thomas, who have already been nominated for best picture twice before, for ‘Inception’ and ‘ Dunkirk’, but whose influence and impact on the industry and even the Oscars goes well beyond just counting nominations (including leading a charge to save film). But maybe it was worth the wait to experience this moment with a film like “Oppenheimer.”

COYLE: It’s all ‘Oppenheimer,’ and the only question is how many prizes it ultimately goes away with. (I say eight.) But let’s listen to one of the best best fields of view in recent history. There isn’t really a clunker in the mix this year. The nominees range from epic to indie, blockbuster to arthouse. You also have more comedy than usual, including “Barbie” and its evil twin, “Poor Things.”

BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Annette Bening, “Nyad”; Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”; Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”; Emma Stone, ‘Poor Things.’

COYLE: On a night that should be pretty predictable, this turns out to be a nail-biter. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) and Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) are seemingly in a dead heat, with the oddsmakers splitting them evenly. I’m going to give the edge to Gladstone, who is coming off a big win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and has a history stemming from her potential win. She would be the first Native American to win an Oscar, a prospect that “Saturday Night Live” joked her fellow nominees said, “Please don’t let us win.” However, Stone is absurdly good in “Poor Things” and her chances cannot be dismissed. She won at the BAFTAs and international Oscar voters are increasingly opting for close races.

BAHR: You know it’s a tough year when the other three highly successful and extremely committed performances aren’t even in the conversation. I want Gladstone to win, but something tells me Stone will be the one on that stage (and no, it’s not Searchlight or her publicists whispering in my ear).

BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”; Colman Domingo, “Rustin”; Paul Giamatti, “The Remains”; Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”; Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction.”

BAHR: This will be one of the bigger breather moments on Oscar night as we wait to hear whether best actor goes to Paul Giamatti or Cillian Murphy. Neither has won this award before and both gave undeniably great and memorable performances, both involving copious drinking and varying degrees of regret, but only one of which gave the actor the opportunity to melodically belt out “Monet, Manet, Picasso.” utter and then, well, fart. However, I think Murphy, who hasn’t won a single Oscar, has caught the wave and will get the trophy for his extraordinarily internal portrayal of an impossibly complex giant.

COYLE: As much as we’d all like to see a knock-down, drag-it-out fight between Murphy and Giamatti – two famous nice guys and much-admired character actors getting a leading man moment – that tete-a-tete just never happens came true. Murphy won at both the SAGs and BAFTAs, and I think the “Oppenheimer” headwind is just too strong for Giamatti to pull it off.

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Nominees: Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”; Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”; America Ferrera, “Barbie”; Jodie Foster, “Nyad”; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Remains.”

COYLE: This race has been a lock for months, almost certain to earn Randolph her first Academy Award. Of the three perfect performances in Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” (the others being Giamatti and newcomer Dominic Sessa), the sensitivity of Randolph’s grieving mother has made her an Oscar shoo-in.

BAHR: Indeed, and let’s hope whoever reads the winner’s card understands the pronunciation of her name correctly (unlike some others this season). Psst…it’s DAY-Vine.

BEST ACTOR IN A ANNEX
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”; Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Robert Downey Jr. “Oppenheimer”; Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”; Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things.”

BAHR: It’s just going to be an “Oppenheimer” night and we can all assume that Robert Downey Jr. will be the one to take the stage to accept it. The last time he was nominated was in 2008, for “Tropic Thunder,” and his win won’t just be for playing the vengeful Lewis Strauss, but, like Jamie Lee Curtis last year, an overdue acknowledgment of his life in entertainment. Plus he gives a good speech and I’m sure he saves the best for last.

COYLE: Honestly, what a strong group of nominees. Downey will win his first Oscar, which no one would say he doesn’t deserve (although I would have given it to him for “Kiss Kiss Bang Bang”). De Niro, almost half a century after winning this award for a film called ‘The Godfather, Part II’, is back and doing his best work in years. Brown, who gives “American Fiction” such a jolt, is as good as anyone working today. Ruffalo, great at everything, should one day soon get the “overdue Oscar” treatment that Downey is getting this year. And Gosling is perhaps our best comedic actor. He’s going to lose, but only because his Ken is TOO good.

DEAR DIRECTOR
Nominees: “Anatomy of a Fall”, Justine Triet; “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Martin Scorsese; “Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan; ‘Poor Things’, Yorgos Lanthimos; ‘The Zone of Interest’, Jonathan Glazer.

COYLE: I feel like there’s someone missing here. Yes, this is the site of the most high-profile snub, for “Barbie” director Greta Gerwig. Gosling may still be screaming in horror, but the noise has largely dissipated. (Still, Gerwig should have been nominated.) Anyway, this is definitely Nolan’s prize. It will be his first Oscar directing, a belated coronation for one of Hollywood’s most respected authors. To see how rare these opportunities can be, look no further than fellow nominee Scorsese. He only won it once. (Makes Gosling scream.)

BAHR: Still, it’s such a great group. And Nolan will certainly walk to the engraving station with this trophy in hand.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Nominees: “Bobi Wine: The People’s President”; “The Eternal Memory”; “Four Daughters”; “Killing a Tiger”; “20 days in Mariupol.”

BAHR: It’s a bit funny to talk about a film made by your colleagues, but it’s not difficult when it’s something as big as Mstyslav Chernov’s ’20 Days in Mariupol’, an incredible documentary and a clear frontrunner in this category. It has already won a BAFTA and a DGA. It missed the PGA by a film that was not nominated for an Oscar (“American Symphony”). It’s hard to watch, but that’s the point: this is a film that bears witness to the terrible things you might want to look away from – urgent, timely and already an essential historical document of an atrocity that is still unfolding is underway.

COYLE: This awards season has been marked by the almost total absence of on-stage mention of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The major exception to this is the sober report in ‘Twenty Days in Mariupol’, which poignantly documents the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It should also be noted that a year ago this prize went to ‘Navalny’, the intimate portrait of the recently deceased Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Nominees: “Io Capitano”, Italy; “Perfect Days”, Japan; “Society of the Snow”, Spain; “The Teachers’ Lounge”, Germany; “The Zone of Interest”, United Kingdom.

COYLE: This definitely goes to “The Zone of Interest,” Jonathan Glazer’s chilling and formally masterful Holocaust drama. It is a Best Picture nominee, demonstrating the academy’s high regard for the film. However, my favorite film of 2023 – the sublime, shortlisted Finnish film ‘Fallen Leaves’ – would have been my pick. Or the radiant ‘Perfect Days’ by Wim Wenders, easily the best film about a toilet cleaner from Tokyo that you will ever see.

BAHR: This is always the cruelest category, where all of international cinema is reduced to five nominees. Why not 10 here too? And you’re right: if an international film also gets a Best Picture nomination, you can usually safely count on it winning at least this award. But even an Oscar seems too small for something like Glazer’s triumph. To quote a friend, “’The Zone of Interest’ feels more like a museum piece than an entertainment piece.”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: “The Boy and the Heron”; “Elementary”; “Nimona”; “Robot Dreams”; “Spider-Man: On the Spider-Verse.”

BAHR: Unlike many years in the animated film category, most of these films deserve ample recognition. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” is probably the favorite, but since the first one already won the award, I’m going with Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron.” Miyazaki has won two Oscars, a competitive one for “Spirited Away” and an honorary trophy from the academy’s Board of Directors. But whether this is his last film or not (he keeps teasing), it would be one of those can’t-miss moments, especially since he wasn’t there to accept the award for “Spirited Away” during the broadcast of 2003 (his way of protesting the war in Iraq).

COYLE: This amounts to “The Boy and the Heron” or “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” I love them both, but I’m going with the “Spider-Verse” sequel. It triumphed at the Annie Awards, a strong precursor, and blew the doors off what sequels usually stand for in Hollywood. The 2018 original also won this award, so a win for “Across the Spider-Verse” would mark the first time the first two films in a franchise won best animated film.