The Pakistani military has influenced many elections. Now it's going full speed.

Tucked away in a patch of dying grass on the outskirts of Islamabad, the gathering hardly resembled a political rally at the height of an election season. Two dozen men sat in silence on plastic chairs. There were no posters to promote a campaign, no microphones to make speeches, no sound system to amplify the crowd.

Even the candidate, Aamir Mughal, was missing: he had gone into hiding months earlier, at the first signs of an army-led crackdown on his political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI. The authorities had already raided his house. arrested two of his sons and filed a case against him in connection with anti-military protests.

“They are putting pressure on us to leave the party and politics,” Mughal said in an interview from a safe house where he was staying before coming to rallies this weekend. “It is all part of an attempt to weaken and eliminate the party.”

As Pakistan heads to the polls on Thursday, the powerful military is using a familiar playbook to sideline its nemesis of the hour, paralyzing PTI in its first national election since the party's leader, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, clashed with the generals and deposed by parliament in 2022.

PTI candidates have been detained and forced to denounce the party, the candidates say. Their relatives have been arrested and their homes looted in an attempt to kill them, candidates, their relatives and human rights observers participation. Officials have prevented other PTI candidates from campaigning, censored party coverage and used internet disruptions to block live-streamed speeches by PTI leaders. The dragnet has also captured hundreds of PTI supporters.

Last week, Mr Khan, who has been jailed since August, was sentenced to 10 years in prison on charges of leaking state secrets, and to 14 years in a separate corruption case. On Saturday, Mr Khan was given an additional seven years in prison, as was his wife, Bushra Bibi, on charges that their marriage was against the law.

While military intervention in Pakistan's elections is nothing new — Mr. Khan himself was a beneficiary in 2018 — the current crackdown is more visible than those in previous years, analysts say, making this vote the least credible in its 76-year history belongs to Pakistan.

“These elections will have no legitimacy whatsoever, even less than the 2018 elections,” said Zaigham Khan, a political analyst and columnist based in Islamabad, the capital. “And if an elected government has no legitimacy, you cannot expect political stability or economic stability.”

The military has applied a heavier hand as it faces a particularly turbulent moment in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of 240 million where frustration over the generals' iron grip has boiled over in recent months.

For most of Pakistan's existence, the military has ruled the country directly or exercised enormous influence over civilian governments. When Mr Khan was ousted following a dispute over the leadership of the army, he accused the generals of orchestrating the move. At rallies attended by thousands of supporters, Mr. Khan railed against those generals by name — direct criticism that was once unheard of in a country where people complained only in code, calling the military “the establishment.”

Viral videos produced by Mr Khan's party have fueled frustration with the military among a large group of young supporters who are coming to terms for the first time with what the generals' grip means for the country's seemingly eternal quest for sustainable politics . When Mr Khan was arrested in May, hundreds of protesters attacked military installations in once unimaginable scenes.

In the months since, the military has tried to regain control and make clear that its hand in politics will be permanent, analysts say.

Government officials have denied any illegal interference in the elections aimed at sidelining PTI. They have defended the arrests of PTI members and leaders as a necessary response to the violent protests in May.

“It appears that the party is eyeing their defeat and using the victim card to cover up the criminal actions of some of their leaders,” said Murtaza Solangi, the interim information minister. “The law has run its course,” he added.

Most election observers expect a victory for the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PMLN, the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif – which itself fell out of favor with the military in 2017, but returned to the army's favor in these elections to stand. .

The crackdown makes this perhaps the most muted election in Pakistan in decades. Streets that would normally be filled with political rallies have remained empty. For weeks, many people were convinced that the elections would not even take place on the scheduled date. By demoralizing and confusing PTI supporters, analysts said, the military hoped to deter them from going to the polls.

“It seems unlikely that PTI voters will come out – they feel like they already know the election outcome, it is predetermined,” said Mohammad Waseem, professor of political science at the Lahore University of Management Sciences.

Last month, the party of Mr. Khan not using the iconic cricket bat symbol – a nod to his own sporting fame — to represent its candidates on ballots. That dealt a critical blow to the party in a country where about 40 percent of people are illiterate and voters rely on symbols to identify candidates.

PTI candidates have also effectively lost their ability to campaign. Permits to hold public gatherings have been revoked or outright denied, according to campaigners and The New York Times paperwork. Printing houses have been told not to produce PTI posters, say employees. Those that do manage to get printed quickly disappear.

To strengthen support, PTI candidates campaign in the shadows during small, private rallies. On Monday evening, dozens of PTI supporters gathered in a dilapidated apartment complex on the outskirts of the eastern city of Lahore to hear a PTI candidate speak.

Men trickled in from the unlit street and used the flashlight on their phones to climb three concrete steps until they reached the roof. A green and red PTI flag hung on a railing.

“We are going door to door to spread Imran Khan's message in these difficult times,” the candidate, Wasim Qadir, told the crowd. “I know you all support us.” He reminded voters that with the party's cricket bat icon banned, he would be represented on the ballot paper by a wicket, while another candidate used a medallion symbol.

Mr Qadir had planned to hold a public meeting earlier that day after receiving permission from authorities for the first time since his campaign began. But that morning, four unmarked vehicles arrived at his campaign headquarters, and security officials arrested one of his drivers and seized a sound system, his campaign manager said. The message was unofficial but clear: no demonstration would be allowed.

The crackdown on PTI supporters has also reached parts of Pakistani society that were once safe from military intimidation. Women have been arrested en masse in connection with the violent protests against the army in May. Even the Pakistani elite – which traditionally has close ties with the military – has been swept along.

In Lahore, a sprawling metropolis and the capital of Punjab province, the arrest in May of the granddaughter of a former army chief sent shock waves through the upper echelons of Pakistani society. The granddaughter, Khadijah Shah, a known PTI supporter, has been charged with terrorism, sedition and rioting.

Ms Shah, who has denied involvement in illegal activities, was granted bail last month after serving seven months in jail. Many believe the military used her to send a warning to the rest of the country's elite: their days of being out of the military's reach are over.

The intimidation campaign has even confused some who say they do not support PTI. In October, an Islamabad-based podcaster, Imran Noshad Khan, was arrested and detained for three days after posting a podcast critical of the military. He has been charged with sedition.

“It has a chilling effect,” Mr Khan said. The message, he added, is this: “Do not provide a platform to people who criticize the establishment for its role in politics.”