A week after deadly riots: a fragile peace in Papua New Guinea

Bullets flew. Shops and warehouses burned down. On the edge of the prime minister's compound, hundreds of demonstrators tore down the fences and set fire to a guard booth. Inside, on the 10th floor of the beige building that housed the office of the country's leader, he faced calls to respond forcefully and perhaps even ask the former colonial ruler for help.

“We are not calling in the Australians,” Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape told a reporter visiting his office. “We can handle this ourselves.”

Last week's deadly unrest left officials unaware, leaving Marape with a rapidly evolving crisis. But discontent had been simmering for months in one of the poorest countries in the world. Papua New Guinea has a very large youth population, but offers few jobs for young people, exacerbating economic hardship.

So when hundreds of civil servants and police officers had their wages stopped – due to what the government described as a computer error – they walked off the job on January 10. Within hours, Port Moresby, the capital, was rocked by a level of violence not seen in decades. No official death toll has been released, but at least 22 are believed to have died during the unrest, according to newspaper reports. Australian news media.

Mr Marape insisted the pay error would be corrected and the missing money restored, dismissing claims circulating on social media that the pay cut was a clandestine tax increase. By nightfall he had ordered the army to restore peace in the capital. The next day, he declared a two-week state of emergency in Port Moresby and suspended the Pacific island's police chief.

During the unrest, telecommunications services in Papua New Guinea suffered disruptions. according to NetBlocksa group that monitors internet connectivity, but the causes behind the problem remained unclear.

A fragile peace has now been established. But resources are scarce and so many businesses have been looted or burned during the riots. It is unclear who will bear the costs of reconstruction. These are estimated at 600 million Papua New Guinean kina, or about $160 million according to the government, and are unlikely to be covered by the companies' insurance. Members of the military and police have a visible presence in the capital, with some services experiencing reduced opening hours and restrictions on public gatherings and alcohol consumption.

In the aftermath of the riots, seven lawmakers resigned, and rumors of mutiny have arisen over Marape's handling of the crisis.

The speed at which a wage dispute gave way to violent riots reveals the fragility of life in Papua New Guinea, says Michael Main, an anthropologist and researcher at Australia National University.

More than 68 percent of the country's population – an estimated between 9 million and 17 million people – lived below the poverty line as of 2017, on less than $3.65 per day, according to the World Bank.

According to recent studies, the country is experiencing a so-called youth bulge, with as many as two-thirds of the population under the age of 25. Although there are few reliable official statistics, youth unemployment is widespreadexperts say.

“We have in our cities and towns a large population of unemployed, withdrawn and disaffected youth with little to no prospect of becoming productive citizens,” said Christopher Elphick, 39, owner of a furniture and appliance store in Port Moresby. “They have nothing to lose.”

Those who get jobs face obligations to their community, with family members relying on them for help.

The sudden pay cut for the police, who come from different parts of the country and have complex political and clan alliances, has ignited a tinderbox. “Take away a substantial portion of their wages,” said Dr. Main, “and suddenly they are left with the same demands – but even less money.”

In a video posted on social media, James Nomane, one of the MPs who resigned after the unrest broke out, blamed Prime Minister Marape for the crisis and called for him to resign.

“The government has failed to address the 'youth bulge' problem, we have failed to create opportunities for our people, and we have absolutely failed the nation,” he said, adding added: “No blame games, no excuses – the buck stops with The Prime Minister. He must resign.”

Mr Marape came to power in 2019 promising that the country, which is impoverished but rich in resources, would be the “country of the world”.richest black christian nationwithin ten years. He avoided a no-confidence vote in 2020 and won re-election in 2022. In recent months, as both the United States and China vie for influence in the Pacific, Mr. Marape has security agreements signed with the United States and Australia, while also striking economic deals with China, the country's largest trading partner.

Marape announced a cabinet reshuffle on Monday, signaling a rift within his coalition. But while a vote of no confidence is likely, no challenger has emerged so far, and members of the prime minister's party and the media have largely rallied around him, said Maholopa Laveil, an economist at the University of Papua New -Guinea.

The timing of such a vote remains unclear, but could take place next month at the earliest. The country's laws prohibit a vote of no confidence within a year and a half after the election.

For now, the government has threatened to shut down social media, citing concerns about “misinformation and disinformation.” said the Minister of TelecommunicationsTimothy Masiu.

It is already “investigating certain social media accounts and following individuals of interest,” Mr. Laveil said. “They have the right to freeze accounts if there is a credible threat.”