Friday briefing: Putin’s re-election
Why the Russian elections matter
Russians begin voting for president today, but there is no suspense over the outcome: Vladimir Putin, 71, will surely be declared the overwhelming victor.
The elections, which will take place in three days, are being held as the war in Ukraine rages on and the Russian opposition tries to turn grief over the death of Aleksei Navalny into momentum to protest against Putin. The three other candidates on the ballot do not pose a challenge.
Since his appointment in 2000, Putin has consolidated his power and amended the constitution to expand his rule. If Putin lasts two more terms, until 2036, he will surpass Joseph Stalin’s 29-year rule.
“These elections are a ritual,” Anton Troianovski, our Moscow bureau chief, told me. “It is a very important ritual for the functioning of Putin’s state and power system. But you shouldn’t expect it to change that much either.”
Here’s more from my conversation with Anton.
What is Russia trying to achieve with these elections?
Anthony: The aim is to give Putin a new degree of public legitimacy for his fifth term – and, crucially, to portray Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as overwhelming public support.
The Kremlin has always used these elections – even though they are not free and fair – to say that Putin has all this power because all these people support him.
So we expect that when the polls close on Sunday they will announce that there was a turnout of more than 60 percent – and that more than 70 percent of the people voted for Putin. After that, there will probably be a big victory speech from Putin.
What is the mood among Russian voters?
I don’t think anyone is biting their nails waiting for the first exit polls on Sunday evening. But where you do see a lot of concern is around the question of what happens after the elections.
Perhaps the biggest thing the Russians fear is mobilization: a new military draft. There was one in September 2022, which caused the exodus of people trying to flee the country. It was the most chaotic time in the entire country since the start of the war. At this point, analysts say it doesn’t seem very likely to happen. That’s because Russia has the initiative on the battlefield.
But there is also the issue of repression. Will there be another wave of repression? Of arrests? Of new and repressive laws passed after the elections? That is also a possibility.
These elections are important for Putin. He needs the show of public approval for him and his war.
How did Aleksei Navalny’s death change the elections?
Navalny’s death simultaneously caused much despair and much hope among anti-Putin Russians.
Despair, because he was more or less the only figure people could imagine as president of a more democratic post-Putin Russia.
Hope, because after his death there was a huge outpouring of grief, including in Russia, where by many estimates tens of thousands of people came to his funeral and to his grave in the days after his burial.
People in Russia knew that there were many who were against the war, but you almost never saw them express this publicly. His funeral became this message: that there are still critics of Putin, critics of the war in Russia, who are capable of making their voices heard when they see the right opportunity.
How do Navalny’s supporters want to protest this time?
Russia is currently more repressive than at any time in the post-Soviet period. The question is: In this environment, can the Russian opposition still somehow use the elections to send a message of dissent?
One of the last things Navalny published on his Instagram page before his death was a call for protest at the polls on the last day of voting, Sunday, March 17, at noon.
The idea is: there is no law that prohibits voting. In fact, the government want to you to vote. And there is no law that prohibits showing up at a certain time. So why doesn’t everyone who is against Putin and against the war show up at noon on March 17?
Navalny’s team hopes that we will see these huge lines and that this will show the government how many people are against the war. But turnout will be difficult to gauge as Russia has tens of thousands of polling stations.
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