A year after Dobbs, Republicans are entering risky territory regarding abortion

In the year since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, one of the nation’s most emotionally charged issues has been defined by two seemingly contradictory political realities.

In a competitive general election, abortion rights emerged as one of the greatest electoral strengths for Democrats and, often, a clear liability for Republicans: Do Americans say up record levels that they support at least some access to the procedure, and the issue has led to Democratic victories across the country.

At the same time, Republican-dominated state legislatures have taken swift action to sharply restrict or ban access to abortion. Activists demand that GOP presidential candidates make firm commitments on federal restrictions and push for progressive legislation in the states.

This headlong stampede into risky territory for the national Republican Party — and the extraordinary reaction to some of those measures — represents the lasting political ramifications of the Supreme Court decision, which reversed a partisan deadlock 50 years in the making.

Anti-abortion activists and some Republican strategists applaud the approach of many state lawmakers, arguing that voters expect their lawmakers to uphold one of the core tenets of the conservative movement.

“If you can, you should,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of major anti-abortion rights group Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. “Not to do so would be politically disastrous for pro-life voters who put them in office.”

But as the anniversary of the Dobbs decision overturning Roe approaches Saturday, interviews with more than a dozen Republican lawmakers, strategists and anti-abortion activists paint a portrait of a party still struggling to find a consensus on the abortion policies and struggles with how to incentivize core voters on the issue without alienating floating voters.

Many observers see the wave of new restrictions, which vary in pregnancy limits and exceptions and have sometimes been held in court, as a function of several factors: years of promises and pent-up energy on the right; deep-seated beliefs about when life begins; and gerrymandering that often leaves Republican lawmakers more concerned with far-right primary challenges than with knocking out moderate voters in a general election.

But for a critical segment of Republicans—those who represent competing districts in state legislatures or Congress, who support some degree of abortion rights, or, in some cases, presidential candidates—the issue represents a particularly difficult balancing act.

Their decisions and calculations are at the heart of the tensions over the abortion debate within the Republican Party in the post-Roe era.

“I heard strongly from both sides,” said Florida State Representative Mike Caruso, a Republican who opposed a measure — eventually signed by Governor Ron DeSantis — banning abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, with a few exceptions. “It was actually a ban on abortion.”

“I’ve had seven kids, nine pregnancies,” he added. “I don’t think I ever knew, we ever knew, that we were pregnant before six weeks.”

But demonstrating the vastly different views on the issue within the party, Florida State Representative Mike Beltran said that while he voted in favor of the measure, “honestly, I don’t think it goes far enough.”

“All of these bills were huge compromises,” said Mr. Beltran, who said that he personally opposed the right to abortion without exception. prematurely. “We should face electoral consequences if we don’t do what we said we would do.”

Anti-abortion activists and lawmakers have vigorously made a version of that argument for Republican candidates, sometimes citing polls to show lawmakers what they think voters in a given state will accept. (Some of these studies were commissioned by abortion opponents, and their findings may be contrary to the public poll.)

“It’s a fundamental issue for Republicans to protect lives,” said Tami Fitzgerald, executive director of the North Carolina Values ​​Coalition. She supported the state’s new ban on most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy, though she wants restrictions that go much further, calling a six-week ban “step two.”

“A candidate needs the pro-life voters to win,” she added.

In an interview this month, Susan B. Anthony’s Ms. Dannenfelser urged candidates to “be very clear about what it means to be ambitious for life,” while trying to create contrasts with Democrats on the issue, warning of the risks of being defined by the other side.

This is not a “theoretical messaging moment,” she said. “This is real life.”

In the presidential contest, however, some candidates have tried to evade questions about which national restrictions they would support. contenders included former President Donald J. Trump — who helped get through Supreme Court justices who enabled Roe to be overthrown — have indicated they believe the issue should be resolved by the states, though Mr. Trump has also remained vague on the matter .

“Their hesitation to communicate was frustrating,” Ms. Dannenfelser said, referring broadly to the field. But the debate phase, she said, is “where the rubber meets the road, and our bright red line that says you have to have a limit of 15 weeks or better or we can’t support you.”

But when South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham proposed a federal ban on abortion at 15 weeks gestation last year, with few exceptions, he immediately provoked opposition from numerous fellow Republicans, evidence that some in the party see a political danger in an national ban.

A Gallup survey released last week found that a record 69 percent of Americans, including 47 percent of Republicans, believed abortion should generally be legal in the first three months of pregnancy.

“I just wonder if there might be some room for nuance within the party,” said Lydia Saad, Gallup’s director of US social research. “But nuance is generally not very successful in politics.”

In some states, Republican lawmakers have issued bans, with some exceptions starting after 12 weeks the end of the first trimester, as something of a middle ground. And from Nebraska to South Carolina there have indeed been legislators who said they couldn’t support a six-week ban, but indicated they were more comfortable with 12 weeks, even though such proposals have drawn condemnation from some in the local community. business and medical communities.

In North Carolina, Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, vetoed the 12-week ban. He and other abortion rights supporters warned the move would hinder critical medical decisions and create dangerous barriers for women seeking abortions.

State Representative Ted Davis Jr., a Republican, indicated during his campaign last year he supported state law permitting abortions up to 20 weeks gestation. When the state legislature passed the 12-week measure, he skipped the voice.

But citing factors such as loyalty to his caucus, frustration with the other side and voters who, he said, seemed divided about overriding the veto, he said eventually joined fellow Republicans to override the veto, allowing the more restrictive measure to prevail.

Still, he tried to distinguish between the two voices.

“What worries me is what’s going to happen in the future in terms of access to abortion,” he said. “Are the Republicans going to try and narrow it down even further?”

Other lawmakers have tried to penalize women who want abortions or the like who help them. Some South Carolina Republican legislators moved – in vain — to treat abortion at any stage of pregnancy as murder, which may be punishable by death.

That measure would have “given more rights to a rapist than to a woman who was raped,” said Representative Nancy Mace, a South Carolina Republican who turned a chair from a Democrat in 2020. “That’s where the conversation went.”

“They listen to some of the extreme voices, and they operate and vote and legislate out of fear,” she said. “They don’t hear from the rest of the electorate, the 95 percent of people who vote in elections. They hear from the 5 percent who say, ‘You’re not a Republican if you don’t want to ban abortions without exception.’”

Even in her conservative state, there were Republican resistance groups to efforts to enact a near-total ban on abortion. A six-week ban has been passed by the legislature, but is now deadlocked in court.

“I’ll probably draw a primary challenger,” admitted state senator Katrina Shealy, who opposed that measure, with its many requirements for women seeking abortions. She already has been rejected by a local Republican county party.

Some on the far right, she suggested, “don’t want people to wear masks. They don’t want people to get vaccinated.”

They believe, she said, that “they should have full rights — but don’t let women make this decision.” And that is not right.”