Rishi Sunak warns Reform beating Tories at election would only give Labour a ‘blank cheque’ for eye-watering tax hikes – as Nigel Farage admits the insurgents can pile up votes without getting as many MPs

Rishi Sunak frantically tried to calm down Tories today, after a poll showed a ‘crossover’ moment, with Reform leapfrogging the party.

The Prime Minister urged the vote to focus on who should be at number 10 between him and the Prime Minister Keir Starmerafter YouGov investigation Nigel Farage‘s insurgents in second place.

Mr Sunak warned that even if the findings were released by July 4, it would only give Labor a “blank cheque” to burden Britons with more taxes.

Meanwhile, Farage welcomed the fact that he is now leading the ‘opposition’ – but admitted the reform ‘may not get the number of seats we deserve’.

The first past the post system means that new parties often receive a spread of votes across the country, but support is not concentrated enough to win constituencies.

Rishi Sunak today sought to calm panicking Tories after a poll showed reforms saw a leap forward in the party

Nigel Farage welcomed being now leading the ‘opposition’ – but admitted reform ‘might not get the number of seats we deserve’

The Prime Minister urged the vote to focus on who should be Prime Minister between him and Keir Starmer, after YouGov research put Nigel Farage’s rebels in second place

Although it is just one widely anticipated survey, YouGov’s figures have fueled unrest over the campaign within conservative circles.

Asked whether he was desperate that Reform UK is now ahead of the Conservatives, the Prime Minister told reporters at the G7 summit in southern Italy: ‘We’re only halfway through this election so I’m still fighting very hard for every vote.

‘And what that poll shows is – the only poll that matters is the 4th of July poll – but if that poll was repeated on the 4th of July it would give Labor a blank check to tax everyone – tax their house, their pension, their car, their family – and I will fight very hard to make sure that doesn’t happen.

‘And actually, when I’ve started talking to people, they understand that a vote for someone who isn’t a Conservative candidate is just a vote to put Keir Starmer in tenth place.

‘So if you want action on lower taxes, less migration, protected pensions or a sensible approach to net zero, the only way to achieve that is by voting Conservative.’

Asked whether he needed to find a more effective way to counter the threat from Nigel Farage’s party, Mr Sunak said: ‘So we’re only half way there and when I’m out and about talking to people, people understand that eventually. If you don’t vote for a Conservative candidate, it becomes more likely that Keir Starmer will be at number 10.

“And when people think about the substance of what they want to see from a future administration, if you’re someone who wants to see control of the borders, then you’ll get that from us. You won’t get that from Labour, they are going to cancel the Rwanda programme, they are not going to introduce a legal migration limit.

“If you want a sensible approach to net zero, I have already announced it. Labor would reverse these reforms and impose everyone’s bills at no net cost. And if you want to protect your pension, we are the only ones to offer a triple lock plus.

‘So actually, if people sit down around the table especially now this week, when everyone can see very clearly the difference in the approach of the two parties, I think that choice will become clear to people between now and election day . We’re only halfway through.’

And when asked whether the election was existential for the Tories, he said: ‘I think at the end of the day, on July 5, one of two people will become Prime Minister – Keir Starmer or me – and this week the most important . What happened was that you saw the manifestos of both major parties, that is their program for government if they were elected.

“So now everyone has a very clear idea of ​​what each of us would do and as you saw in our manifesto, which we discussed yesterday, say what you want about it, but it is a very clear plan, a detailed set of bold actions. . This way you ensure a safer future for people, and crucially: there is a huge difference in terms of taxation.

‘We want to reduce your taxes at every stage of your life at work, when setting up a business, buying your first home, when you are retired, retired or have a family, lower taxes for everyone .

“The Labor Party consistently can’t tell you what taxes they’re going to raise, but they’re going to raise them and as we saw yesterday, they’re going to raise the tax burden to the highest level in the history of this country. . And that is everyone’s choice at the election.”

Farage told BBC Breakfast that his campaign had had a ‘phenomenal start’.

“When I led Ukip to the general election in 2015, we got four million votes and one seat – never before had anyone received so many votes for so little reward,” he said.

‘But we are looking at many, many more votes than 4 million this time, we hope to reach the electoral threshold. Whatever we do, we may not get the number of seats we deserve, but will we win seats in Parliament? Yes.

‘How many? There’s still three weeks to go, we’ve got the momentum behind us and there’s still three long weeks to go.”

When pressed to outline a target, Mr Farage replied: “I have no idea. The Labor Party is hugely ahead in the polls, the Conservative Party hasn’t risen a bit in the first three weeks, and it won’t.

‘And my message is very simple – that (Labour leader Sir Keir) Starmer will have a very large majority, I don’t think he has a big plan, his six priorities haven’t even mentioned legal migration, what a big deal , so I want us to become the voice of the opposition in parliament and in the country. That is the ambition.’

The YouGov poll has diverted attention from the Tories’ attempts to get their hands on the issue Work on tax plans after Sir Keir unveiled his manifesto yesterday.

The document set out plans to increase charges by £8.5 billion to pump money into the services sector, but although it promised there would be no change to income tax, national insurance and VAT Sir Keir has refused to rule out moves on council tax and capital gains.

The left-wing Resolution foundation warned last night that the proposals set the stage for five years of tax rises and cuts to public services, amid widespread criticism that neither party is being honest about the difficult choices facing the country.

The think tank said: ‘Their current position sets the stage for a parliament with further tax increases, hard-to-achieve cuts and the risk that a weaker productivity forecast from the OBR at the next budget event could force an incoming Labor chancellor to make new, tough choices to meet their established fiscal rule of reducing debt within the fifth year of the forecast.”

Labour’s promises to increase government spending are largely in departments that are already protected, such as health, social care and education, the Resolution Foundation said.

The YouGov poll has diverted attention from the Tories’ attempts to get at Labor over tax plans after Sir Keir unveiled his manifesto yesterday.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), suggested that achieving “real change” in Britain – Sir Keir Starmer’s flagship promise to voters – would require more funding than suggested in the policy document.

Johnson said some of Labor’s plans were better than “a shopping list of half-baked policy announcements” – an apparent reference to the Tories’ offer – but warned it would have to “put real resources on the table”.

“And Labor’s manifesto gives no indication that there is a plan for where the money would come from to fund this,” he said.

Commenting on Sir Keir’s launch of the policy document on Thursday, the IFS director said: ‘This was not a manifesto for people looking for big numbers. The increases in government spending promised in the cost table are small and trivial; the tax increases, apart from the inevitable reduction in tax avoidance, are even more trivial.

‘Under current forecasts, and especially with an additional £17.5 billion in borrowing over five years to fund the Green Prosperity Plan, this – within the budget line that Labor has signed up to – literally leaves no room for more spending than planned by the current government. government, and those plans entail cuts, both in investment expenditure and in expenditure on unprotected public services.’

Mr Farage is delighted to now be in charge of the main opposition, having emphasized the point in an ITV debate last night and in interviews this morning.