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The reality of Ron DeSantis

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The political fortunes of Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis have been reversed over the past six months. After his re-election as Florida governor, DeSantis seemed like a strong potential presidential candidate, while Trump grappled with legal and personal challenges. Now Trump leads in polls, DeSantis has struggled to solidify his celebrity status, and there is a growing sense in some corners that Trump’s nomination for president is inevitable.

I would caution against that feeling, no matter what it looks like for Trump right now. After months of reporting on the early stages of the 2024 presidential race, I’ve seen how stories can miss key factors shaping the race. And so conventional wisdom begins to take shape in a way that is separate from evidence or data. (See: Expectations of a Republican surge in last year’s midterm elections.)

DeSantis is expected to formally enter the race tomorrow. Here are two stories about his candidacy that could use revision.

Story 1: DeSantis is toast.

Reality: There is an opening for a Trump alternative, be it DeSantis or someone else.

Trump’s grip on the Republican electorate has always been tenuous. He has never won a majority of the electorate in a contested Republican primary. At the winter meeting of the Republican National Committee in California this year, a delegate told me that party insiders estimated that about 30 to 35 percent of Republican voters were staunchly behind Trump, while another, smaller group felt comfortable with him as candidate while considering other options. .

For other candidates, those numbers are a roadmap to victory: consolidate the majority of Republicans favoring another candidate. This group includes factions such as the Tea Party conservatives who supported Texas Senator Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary and the business-oriented moderates who supported candidates such as Ohio Governor John Kasich in 2016.

Calling on them is a difficult task. These groups have historically opposed Trump for a variety of reasons and no candidate has successfully brought them together, but the prerequisites for an anti-Trump coalition are in place.

A route for a candidate like DeSantis or South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, who joined the Republican field yesterday, is to win the nomination without thwarting Trump. If wrote my colleague Nate Cohn, one strategy for beating Trump could be to embody his political message without directly attacking him. For some Republicans, this is a welcome direction. My reporting made it clear that given the criminal investigations Trump faces, some rivals have counted on him to implode on his own.

However, that strategy is passive, which could play into Trump’s hands. Outside the Manhattan courthouse on the day Trump was indicted for fraud related to his 2016 campaign, conservative media provocateur Jack Posobiec said people close to Trump’s campaign predicted more charges would encourage his candidacy, not in endanger. He said they believed Trump would have an opportunity to incentivize voters by portraying law enforcement officials as politically motivated and bent on suppressing his candidacy.

Posobiec pointed to the attention from the news media, the increased fundraising and the bump in the polls that Trump took after his indictment.

Story 2: DeSantis’ biggest problem is Donald Trump.

Reality: Yes, but he has another problem to face first.

DeSantis is no longer chasing candidates who were once deferential to his status as a front runner in the Trump alternative sweepstakes. Last week, several Republican governors made noteworthy moves: North Dakota’s Doug Burgum — a former Microsoft executive — made overtures to join the 2024 field, and Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin released an ad associating himself with Ronald Reagan . New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu also said he was thinking about entering the race, days after a report that former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie could also enter.

Those actions show that a party is not intimidated by DeSantis’ candidacy and are further evidence that his campaign’s first task is not to overtake Trump, but to convince primary voters and opponents that he is the strongest rival of the United States. Trump is. At the RNC meeting, a Trump adviser told me his campaign would like the field to drop to 10 candidates. “More is better for us,” the consultant said, citing the logic that multiple candidates voting in single digits would hurt DeSantis’ ability to assemble a coalition.

DeSantis’ delicate task became clear two months ago when he announced an isolationist view of the war in Ukraine, clear play for Trump supporters. DeSantis’ statement drew backlash commentators and Republican donorsand two other presidential hopefuls — former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence — used it to attack him.

That’s the danger of DeSantis’ unique electoral position: While entering the race as the incumbent Trump alternative, he draws the wrath of other rivals seeking to elevate themselves.

If DeSantis announces his candidacy this week, he’ll be an underdog, but he’s not a contender. No one who has raised more than $110 million is.

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