Scientists are concerned about ocean temperatures

From his office at the University of Miami, Brian McNoldy, an expert on hurricane formation, follows the latest temperature data from the North Atlantic Ocean with a mixture of concern and bewilderment.

Over the past year, oceans around the world have been significantly warmer than normal. Last month was the warmest January on record in the world’s oceans, and temperatures have continued to rise since then. The heat wave was especially pronounced in the North Atlantic Ocean.

“The North Atlantic Ocean has been record warm for almost a year now,” says McNoldy. “It’s just amazing. Like, it doesn’t seem real.”

Across the unusually warm Atlantic Ocean, in Cambridge, England, Rob Larter, a marine scientist who maps Arctic ice levels, is equally perplexed.

“It’s quite frightening, partly because I don’t hear any scientists who have a convincing explanation for why we have such a divergent position,” he said. “We are used to having things under reasonable control. But the impression at the moment is that things have gone further and faster than we expected. That’s an uncomfortable place to be as a scientist.”

Turn the globe south and the situation is also dire.

“The sea ice around Antarctica is just not growing,” said Matthew England, a professor at the University of New South Wales who studies ocean currents. “The temperature is just off the charts. It’s like an omen of the future.”

What causes the heat?

Global warming, caused by the burning of fossil fuels, has been increasing temperatures on land and in the sea for decades. Last year, average global temperatures were more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than before the industrial age. New data from various sources have led some climate scientists to suggest that global warming is accelerating.

Given the overall warming trend, higher temperatures in the oceans are not a complete surprise. Oceans absorb most of the extra heat that greenhouse gases trap on the Earth’s surface, and have been steadily warming for years. The current El Niño weather cycle is also creating additional heat in the Pacific Ocean, releasing more energy into the atmosphere.

Still, the past year has been a shock, even for those who follow the data closely.

“We all know that there has been rapid warming, especially in recent decades,” Larter says. “But over the last 18 months it has gone further than we expected.”

Scientists offer several explanations for the record heat in the North Atlantic Ocean.

A surprising factor may be a reduction in pollution in the area. In 2020, a new rule came into effect limiting the amount of sulfur dioxide in the fuel used by container ships. That has reduced the amount of particulate matter in the air, allowing more solar radiation to enter and contributing to global warming.

“When those aerosols were in the air over the shipping lanes, they helped create cloud cover, and now they are much less so,” says McNoldy. “That’s a legitimate thing.”

But the reduction in sulfur dioxide alone cannot explain the North Atlantic Ocean’s extreme heat, scientists said.

Another factor may be the complex feedback loops in Earth’s weather patterns. The North Atlantic Ocean has been unusually clear lately, with fewer clouds than normal blocking sunlight from warming the water. The area was also less windy than normal, which could also have led to a temperature spike.

Without strong winds, colder water from deeper in the ocean doesn’t rise to the surface as easily, England said.

What comes next

In the short term, McNoldy said warmer waters in the Atlantic Ocean could produce a strong and prolonged hurricane season.

“Compared to other fairly significant hurricane seasons, this is much warmer at this point in the year,” he said.

Sea heat is also expected to reduce Arctic sea ice, Larter said.

“The bad news for sea ice has a lot of knock-on effects,” he said. “Sea ice formation is the process that drives much of the ocean’s circulation. And if the overturning circulation slows down, it will really impact the climate around the world.”

Recent research has suggested that as glaciers melt and more freshwater flows into the Atlantic Ocean, a crucial ocean current could falter, potentially leading to drastic changes in global weather patterns, such as a rapid drop in temperatures across Europe.

McNoldy said it’s too early to say whether the ongoing heat wave is part of the early stages of such a change. “I hope it’s not something much worse, like a significant change in ocean currents,” he said. “That would have much greater consequences.”

RIP Flaco, the owl that got loose

Flaco, the Eurasian eagle owl who escaped from the Central Park Zoo and became a New York City icon, died last Friday after flying into a building.

There was widespread grief in the city, where the fiery-eyed bird inspired a passionate following. Flaco would have turned 14 next month.

On Saturday in Central Park, mourners walked among some of Flaco’s favorite oak trees with flowers and binoculars, looking for the right place to pay tribute, my colleague Ed Shanahan reported.

“I feel like he showed us how to break out of our cages, the mundane, the things that don’t serve us, the things that hold us back,” Breanne Delgado, one of the mourners, told Ed.

Flaco’s year as a free bird began on February 2, 2023, when someone shredded the mesh of the modest zoo enclosure where he had lived most of his life. Police said in January that no arrests had been made and the investigation was continuing.

It is not entirely clear how Flaco died. He may have crashed into a window, mistaking the reflections on the glass for open air, just like hundreds of millions of birds every year. His health may also have been affected by lead or rodenticide poisoning from something he ate, which is common among urban birds of prey.

New York City already has some of the most comprehensive crash protection laws in the country, my colleague Tracey Tully wrote. And legislation was recently introduced in Albany that would require bird-friendly materials to be used in more buildings in New York State.

On Monday, the bill was renamed the FLACO Act, an acronym for “Feathered Lives Also Count.” — Manuela Andreoni