Fact-checking candidates sparring over Social Security and Medicare

The leading contenders for the 2024 presidential election have accused each other in recent weeks of endangering Social Security and Medicare, key entitlement programs for seniors.

The future of the programs has been fodder for endless political debate – and disruption – because of the long-term financial challenges they face.

Social Security’s main trust fund is currently projected be exhausted by 2033, meaning the program would then only be able to pay about three-quarters of the total planned benefits. For its part, Medicare is at risk of not having enough money to fully pay hospitals in 2031.

President Biden, former President Donald J. Trump, Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, and Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida are among the candidates targeting these vulnerabilities, often by referencing each other’s past positions.

Here’s a fact check.

WHAT WAS SAID

“Trump in 2020: we are cutting social security and healthcare”
– Biden campaign in a Social media post from December including a clip of Mr Trump

This is misleading. The Biden campaign has repeatedly claimed that scaling back the programs is one of Mr. Trump’s policies. But while Mr. Trump has suggested in the past that he might pursue entitlement cuts, he has repeatedly pledged during his campaign to protect the programs.

In this case, the Biden campaign shared a short clip of Mr. Trump during the campaign a Fox News town hall in March 2020 and ignored his clarification at the time.

The clip shows a Fox News host, Martha MacCallum, telling Trump, “If you don’t cut back on rights, you’re never really going to pay off the debt.”

“Oh, we’re going to have cuts, but we’re also going to have growth like you’ve never had before,” Mr. Trump responded.

The Trump administration immediately walked back his comments, saying he was referring to deficit reduction. “I will protect your Social Security and Medicare, just as I have done for the past three years,” Mr. Trump said wrote in a message one day later.

During his time in office, Trump has proposed some cuts to Medicare — though experts said the cost savings would not significantly affected benefits – and to social security programs for people with disabilities. They are not established by Congress.

Like other candidates, including Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump has shifted his positions over time. In a book from 2000 Mr. Trump suggestedfor people under 40, raising the age for receiving full social security benefits to 70. said it was open on the idea of ​​privatizing the program, even though he didn’t like the concept. He no longer promotes these positions.

The former president became president last January said in a video that “under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut even a cent from Medicare or Social Security.” But he has not outlined a clear plan to keep the programs solvent. The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Mr. Trump proposed last month that the government could prevent any changes to social security by expanding drilling in the United States, but experts say this is not feasible.

“Spending current oil and gas lease revenues on Social Security would cover less than 4 percent of the deficit, and it would be impossible to fix Social Security even if all federal land was opened for drilling operations,” According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

WHAT WAS SAID

“And unlike Ron DeSantimonious, we will always protect Social Security and Medicare for our wonderful seniors. He wanted to destroy Social Security and Medicare.”
– Mr. Trump at a campaign rally in mid-December

This is misleading. While in Congress, Mr. DeSantis supported budget frameworks that proposed raising the full retirement age for Social Security to 70 but leaving the early retirement age the same. As a presidential candidate, he has said he would not cut Social Security benefits for seniors, but has sometimes expressed openness to changes for young people, without specifying what they are.

Currently employees are eligible for their full benefits at their full retirement age, which ranges from 66 to 67 depending on year of birth. But recipients can qualify for reduced benefits as early as age 62.

As a Florida congressman, Mr. DeSantis did just that vote for Republican budget proposals – which in themselves would not have changed the law – that supported gradually raising the full retirement age for social security to 70 years. The proposals did not call for a change to the early retirement age.

The proposals too called for changes to Medicare, including by eventually raising the retirement age from 65 to 67 or 70, and by transitioning the program to ‘premium support’, in which the government would offer payments for seniors to purchase various health care plans.

Mr. DeSantis has not made clear his plans for Medicare as he runs for president, but he has often rejected the idea of ​​changing Social Security. “As Republicans, we’re not going to mess with Social Security, I think that’s pretty clear,” he says said in March.

That said, he has indicated he is open to adapting the program for youth. In a Interview in July on Fox News, Mr. DeSantis said: “Talking about making changes for people in their 30s or 40s so that the program is viable, you know, that’s a whole different thing, and that’s something that I think needs discussions will be. on.”

The DeSantis campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

WHAT WAS SAID

“Nikki Haley, she has claimed that the retirement age is way, way, way too low. That’s what she said. So you have a lot of people who have worked hard all their lives. Life expectancy is declining in this country. It’s tragic, but it’s true. So if you look at those demographic trends and say you would ramp it up so people can’t get benefits. I mean, I don’t know why she says that.’
– Mr. DeSantis last month on CNN

This needs context. Life expectancy in the United States fell during the coronavirus pandemic, but is slowly rising again. And Ms. Haley has only called for changes to Social Security for younger people — similar to what Mr. DeSantis himself has entertained.

“The way we deal with it is we don’t touch anyone’s pension or anyone who has been promised an appointment, but we go to people, like my children in their 20s, when they come into the system, and we say, ‘The rules have changed,” Ms. Haley said in an interview in August with Bloomberg. “We are changing the retirement age to reflect life expectancy.”

Ms. Haley did not specify what the new retirement age should be. “What we do know is that 65 is way too low, and we need to increase that,” she said when pressed. “We have to do it according to life expectancy.”

Ms. Haley also called for determining benefit adjustments based on inflation, instead of the current cost-of-living calculation, and limiting benefits for the wealthy.

As for Medicare, Ms. Haley has proposed expanding it Medicare Benefitwhere private companies provide plans and are paid by the government to cover the beneficiary.

But before 2023, the government was projected to spend $27 billion more on Medicare Advantage plans than if these enrollees were in traditional Medicare. Experts note that expanding Medicare Advantage while achieving overall savings would require structural changes that would be politically challenging to implement.

“It would require a change in payment policy, which would likely be met with fierce opposition,” said Tricia Neuman, a senior vice president at the nonprofit KFF and executive director of the program on Medicare Policy.

Curious about the accuracy of a claim? Email factcheck@nytimes.com.