Millions are heading to the polls on a day that will determine the November vote
Voters in 15 states, including two titans, California and Texas, will go to the polls on March 5 for a Super Tuesday that will likely set up a White House rematch between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump in November.
The contests will also determine the contours of the House and Senate races that will determine the Legislature next year.
Here’s what else you can watch as the results come in.
Will Nikki Haley end her campaign or continue?
Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s first ambassador to the United Nations, won her first Republican primary in the District of Columbia on Sunday and could win several more on Tuesday. Maine’s moderate Republican senators Susan Collinsand Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski endorsed her in recent days, just in time for the Super Tuesday contests in their states.
During Minnesota’s open primary on Tuesday, Democrats can vote for Ms. Haley if they wish. And polls in Virginia showed her moving closer to Trump.
But the largest share of delegates — California has 169 and Texas 161 — will almost certainly go to the former president, and Super Tuesday looms as a big one for Ms. Haley’s backers, who need to see that she has a chance. More than a third of all delegates will be allocated on Tuesday, not enough to make Trump the presumptive nominee, but enough to make him the prohibitive favorite.
Ms. Haley will then face choices with major consequences: Will she drop out and support Mr. Trump, drop out and delay any endorsement, stay in the race until her money runs out, or consider a third-party run? (She has said she will not do so, but the centrist group No Labels remains hopeful she will join her ticket.)
How will Mr. Trump handle the victory?
The country has seen two reactions to the victory of the former president and frontrunner for a third Republican nomination. After winning the New Hampshire primary in January, Mr. Trump mocked Ms. Haley’s dress and castigated her for trying to make the most of her 43 percent second-place finish. After his victory last month in Ms. Haley’s home state of South Carolina, he stopped short of mentioning her.
Mr. Trump has made no secret of his desire to launch the general election campaign against Mr. Biden, and of his frustration with Ms. Haley’s stubborn defiance, including harsh words for the intemperance, age, fidelity to the Constitution and intemperance of her former boss. loyalty to veterans and active duty members.
It is expected to be a big night for Mr Trump. If he lashes out at a vanquished fellow Republican, he risks pushing some of her voters further away from him — and possibly toward Biden.
Will the pro-Palestinian protest dog Mr. Biden?
If anything, Mr. Biden faces even bigger challenges in reuniting the coalition of voters who delivered his 2020 victory, but unlike the Republican Party, the Democratic disharmony will not manifest itself in votes for an alternative candidate on Tuesday night. It may be visible in votes for ‘uncommitted’.
Even as Biden won overwhelmingly in Michigan last week, 13.2 percent of Democratic primary voters cast their votes for “uncommitted,” with most protesting the president’s tilt toward Israel in his brutal conflict with Hamas in Gaza. That total showed the fragility of the Democratic coalition — especially that of young progressives and Arab Americans — as Biden begins a difficult path to reelection.
The next test for Mr. Biden will take place on Tuesday in Minnesota. The state has far fewer Arab-American voters than Michigan, but Minneapolis has a powerful progressive base. Leaders of the protest are hoping for 10,000 “unpledged” votes, a fraction of the 101,436 who cast such votes last Tuesday. And Mr. Biden’s victory by seven percentage points in the state in 2020 was more comfortable than his three-point victory in Michigan.
But Biden, who is lagging in the polls, must bring his party together, and pro-Palestinian voices understand they have leverage to influence U.S. policy in the war. His headache will continue on March 12 in Washington state, where progressives mount the next “uncommitted” campaign.
The resulting California primary.
The nation’s largest state will hold its most consequential primaries on Tuesday, thanks to its unusual primary system, which pits the top two winners against each other on Election Day, regardless of party.
The big race is for the Senate seat that until last year was occupied by Dianne Feinstein, who died in September at the age of 90. The contest drew three Democratic heavyweights, all from California’s House delegation: Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee.
For much of the campaign, it appeared that the top two finalists would be the Democrats, Mr. Schiff and Ms. Porter. Then came the rise of a famous Republican, former Los Angeles Dodgers great Steve Garvey. He didn’t campaign much, but Mr. Schiff, thinking that in a Democratic state like California a Republican would be easier to beat in November, spent $10 million on ads apparently attacking Mr. Garvey as “too conservative for California ‘. but deliberately increased his candidacy.
On Tuesday, Mr. Schiff will see if his strategy will work or if Ms. Porter can take second place.
That primary system also plays a role in a House of Representatives seat in the Central Valley that Democrats are eager to take from Republican incumbent President David Valadao. The newly chosen district would have favored Mr. Biden by 13 percentage points in 2020, but before they get a chance to try to win it, Democrats will have to compete with each other.
The party’s chosen candidate, a former council member named Rudy Salas, faces a feisty Democratic opponent in Melissa Hurtado, whose Senate seat mirrors the U.S. House district. Both want to be the Central Valley’s first Mexican-American representative, but if Democratic turnout is low and divided, Valadao could face his Republican challenger Chris Mathys in November. Democrats will have fired one of their few shots to contest a Republican-held seat that favors Biden.
Redistribution cuts work both ways.
House primaries in North Carolina and Alabama will show how redrawing district boundaries will help and hurt both parties as they battle for control of a three-seat House that Republicans control.
In North Carolina, the Republican supermajority in the state legislature, Gerrymander, has changed the map so profoundly that a state with a Democratic governor and a nearly 50-50 partisan split is likely to lose its seven-to-seven delegation in the House of Representatives will see it switch to ten Republicans, out of a total of 14 seats.
Three incumbent Democrats, Jeff Jackson, Wiley Nickel and Kathy Manning, decided not to even seek re-election.
In Alabama, a Supreme Court ruling that the state’s Republican-drawn maps had unconstitutionally deprived black voters of representation forced new lines that two incumbent House Republicans, Jerry Carl and Barry Moore, would pit against each other. Meanwhile, at least 11 candidates will compete for the newly drawn district, which is nearly 49 percent black and would have been won by Mr. Biden by more than 12 points in 2020.
In Texas, an impeached attorney general seeks revenge.
When Ken Paxton, the Republican attorney general of Texas, was impeached by a state House firmly in control of his own party, it seemed the ultimate nonpartisan rebuke.
The Texas House ultimately approved 20 articles of impeachment, on a lopsided vote of 121-23, related to allegations by a former top deputy that he abused his office to benefit himself and an Austin real estate investor and campaign donor who allegedly sought to to have assisted Mr. Paxton in renovating his home and in helping Mr. Paxton conduct an extramarital affair. (Mr. Paxton stated that the allegations were false.)
Last September, the Texas Senate acquitted him after a nine-day trial. On Tuesday, Paxton will seek revenge against the Republicans who accused him.
Republicans aligned with Mr. Paxton or the state’s conservative governor, Greg Abbott, are challenging other Republicans in more than two dozen races. For the record, Mr. Paxton to reorganize the state’s highest criminal court by removing three Republican judges who serve on the Court of Criminal Appeals.
If the challengers succeed, the country’s largest and richest conservative state is likely to move even further to the right.
North Carolina voters will unleash a fierce gubernatorial race.
North Carolina has a peculiar habit of electing Republican presidential candidates, Republican legislatures and Democratic governors.
In 2024, with current Democratic Governor Roy Cooper term-limited and unable to run for re-election, Republicans hope to break this streak, although primary voters will likely nominate a candidate who can extend it. Mark Robinson, the state’s conservative lieutenant governor with a history of offensive and polarizing comments, including disparaging members of the LGBTQ community, appears poised to win the nomination for the top post, giving him a battle begins with the Democrats’ likely choice: a mild-mannered, popular Attorney General Josh Stein.
The race will be closely watched. North Carolina narrowly went to Mr. Trump in 2020, when Mr. Cooper won re-election. Mr. Robinson could get a boost from the presidential campaign — or Mr. Biden could get a boost from the race for governor.