Taiwan ambassador says Ukraine’s success against Russia will deter China

Why it matters: Some Republicans want to prioritize aid to Taiwan.

Ms. Hsiao’s statement counters arguments by some Republican lawmakers and former US officials that the United States should cut arms aid to Ukraine to prioritize building Taiwan’s defense capabilities and US military assets aimed at countering China. Missouri Senator Josh Hawley does make this argumentlike Elbridge Colby, a Pentagon official in the Trump administration Mr. Hawley advised.

They say some of the same missile and weapon systems Taiwan needs to prevent a possible Chinese invasion — including Javelins, Stingers and Patriots — are being sent to Ukraine. The fastest way for the weapons to reach partner countries is through a process known as the Presidential Withdrawal Authority, which allows the US government to transfer weapons from the Pentagon’s stockpiles. But those reserves have been exhausted by aid to Ukraine.

Those current and former Republican officials also say Taiwan should be given priority in receiving weapons rolling off production lines years in the future. Ms Hsiao said she is not concerned about that as Taiwan’s arms orders are on a different track from those of other governments.

Background: China eventually wants Taiwan under its rule.

Ms Hsiao’s main point is that China is closely monitoring the Russian invasion of Ukraine and learning from it. The greater the cost to Russia, the less likely China will take similar steps, the thinking goes.

“Our best hope is that Beijing also learns the lesson that aggression will not succeed, that there will be a huge international backlash against aggression,” she said.

China is Russia’s most powerful partner, and the two nations declared their relationship knew “no boundaries” before Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, is has continued to show support for Mr Putin, but has so far refrained from giving arms aid to Russia, US officials say. This shows that China is cautious about running into sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and other countries.

Like the Chinese leaders before him, Mr. Xi claims that Taiwan must eventually come under Chinese rule. But senior officials in the Biden administration say there is no information to indicate that Mr Xi has explicitly set a timeline for this. Ms Hsiao said Taiwan also has no evidence of a specific timeline.

What’s Next: Taiwan steps up its own preparedness.

The US government is determined to turn Taiwan into a “porcupine,” an entity brimming with weapons too painful to attack. Ms Hsiao said Taiwan is aware of the need to build military deterrence while reassuring China that it wants to maintain the status quo rather than declare independence. She noted that Taiwan is extending the length of compulsory military service for men from four months to one year; works with the United States to improve military training; and creates the possibility to maintain F-16 fighter jets yourself.