Across the board, voters give Trump’s policies better marks than Biden’s

Not since Theodore Roosevelt ran against William Howard Taft in 1912 have voters had a chance to weigh the credentials of two men who have done the job of president.

And despite holding intense and similarly critical opinions of both President Biden and his predecessor, Americans have far more positive views of Donald J. Trump’s policies than of Mr. Biden.

Overall, 40 percent of voters said Mr. Trump’s policies had helped them personally, compared to just 18 percent who said the same about Mr. Biden’s policies. Instead, 43 percent of voters said Mr. Biden’s policies had hurt them, nearly double the share who said the same about Mr. Trump’s policies, the latest Times/Siena poll found.

That presidents are often remembered with more fondness once they leave office is nothing new. Looking back at nine of the past 11 presidents, job performance approval rose 12 percentage points after leaving office, both on average and for Mr. Trump in particular, according to a Gallup poll from June.

But recent Times/Siena polls show how relatively well-regarded Trump’s policies are, even among groups affected by policies that Democrats hope will lead to trouble in 2024. And for many, it seems to be all about the economy.

Women are 20 percentage points more likely to say that Mr. Trump’s policies have helped them than those of Mr. Biden, despite the fact that Mr. Trump appointed Supreme Court justices who ultimately overturned the right to abortion, and that about two-thirds of women in America believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

Overall, the share of women who think Mr. Trump’s policies have helped them is 39 percent, with 26 percent saying his policies have hurt them and 34 percent saying it hasn’t made much difference.

In polls from six major battleground states in October, 42 percent of women said abortion should always be legal; of that group, two-thirds said Trump’s policies had hurt them. But women who thought abortion should be more limited — including those who said abortion should be largely legal — were far more likely to say Trump’s policies helped them rather than hurt them.

“I like his policies,” said Nadeen Geller, 57, a housewife who lives in Staten Island, New York, and plans to vote for Mr. Trump. “I think they work.”

“I think he can do wonders economically,” added Ms. Geller, who supports keeping abortion legal before 15 weeks of pregnancy and later for health reasons. “I think he can do very well for this country.”

Views on the economy are deeply intertwined with views on the candidates’ policies. And while Republicans almost universally view the economy as bad, Democrats are more evenly divided. Among voters who said the economy was in excellent or good shape, large shares also said they had felt the positive impact of Mr. Biden’s policies. Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who think the economy is fair or poor are more likely to say Biden’s policies have hurt them or not made much of a difference.

Another of Mr. Trump’s first signature policies, his plan to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, was opposed by two-thirds of Spanish votersThis is evident from exit polls conducted during the 2016 elections. It was part of a series of policies, including a travel ban from several predominantly Muslim countries, that contributed to strong Democratic voter turnout and major victories for Democratic candidates in the 2018 midterm elections.

Now, 37 percent of Hispanic voters said Mr. Trump’s policies have helped them personally, compared to 15 percent who said this about Mr. Biden’s policies.

“The money flowed into Trump, even during the Covid years toward the end of his term,” said Henry Perez, 50, who lives in California’s Central Valley. He voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 but switched to Mr. Biden in 2020 because, as a union member, he was unenthusiastic about Mr. Trump’s policies toward unions.

Mr. Perez plans to vote for Mr. Trump again this fall, partly because of the economy.

“Just go to the pump and go to the store — that will tell you everything you need to know about how Biden’s policies hurt me,” he said.

Black voters were the least likely to say Mr. Trump’s policies helped them, but they still rated Mr. Trump’s policies more favorably than Mr. Biden’s.

Gameli Fenuku, a 22-year-old student from Richmond, Virginia, plans to vote for Biden — mainly because “he said he would make college more affordable for students.” But he said Mr. Biden’s policies had hurt him overall, and Mr. Trump’s had helped.

“I don’t want to say it was just because he was president, but everything was definitely cheaper,” Mr. Fenuku said of Mr. Trump, adding: “We weren’t just handing out money to other countries.” He said he would consider voting for Mr. Trump, a stance that was once a rarity among young black men like Mr. Fenuku but has become increasingly common in recent polls.

Mr. Biden’s student loan policies were also cited by Mary Turak, 64, a nurse who lives in Pittsburgh. Ms. Turak, a Democrat, said those around her were “more financially secure” under Mr. Biden, with new jobs, better wages and less student debt.

“One of my daughters has had hers completely forgiven,” Ms. Turak said, adding, “I have another daughter with student loan debt that will probably be forgiven at some level.”

But overall, across gender, age, race and education, voters were more likely to say Biden’s time in office had hurt more than helped.

“He doesn’t really take care of anything at home,” said Jonathan Jones, 35, of Plant City, Florida, citing the wars and the economy as reasons he disapproves of Mr. Biden’s policies.

Mr. Jones, who used to work in manufacturing and now cares for his mother, voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but plans to vote for Mr. Trump in 2024.

“Although Donald Trump sometimes gets on my nerves with his comments, he really helped people,” Mr. Jones said. “Whether it’s food, housing, gas or jobs.”

For the candidates’ own supporters, views on their policies seem to match their enthusiasm gap. Half of Biden’s 2020 supporters said his policies haven’t made much difference to them either way. The vast majority of Trump’s supporters in 2020 said his policies had helped them.

In fact, among the small number of Mr. Biden’s supporters in 2020 who said they planned to vote for Mr. Trump this fall, nearly 60 percent said Mr. Biden’s policies had hurt them. Only a handful said his policies had helped them.

Mr. Biden, however, is winning among the sizable groups of voters who say his policies or those of Mr. Trump have not made much of a difference.

And if we go back to the 1912 race, who did voters ultimately choose? Neither Taft, the incumbent president, nor Roosevelt, his predecessor and challenger. Woodrow Wilson beat them both.