Last exit before Trump: New Hampshire
Let's be honest about the stakes of Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.
If Donald J. Trump wins decisively, as the polls suggest, he will be on track to clinch the Republican nomination without a serious fight. The race will be as good as over.
The background is simple: Trump has a dominant lead of more than 50 points in the polls, with just seven weeks to go until the heart of the primary season, when the preponderance of delegates will be awarded. His position has only improved since Iowa, with national polls showing him now routinely holding more than 70 percent of the vote.
Even skeptical Republican officials are consolidating behind the party's frontrunner. Ron DeSantis' decision to suspend his campaign and endorse Mr. Trump is just the latest example.
The state-by-state polls aren't much better for Nikki Haley, Trump's only remaining opponent. He leads Ms. Haley by at least 30 points in every state after New Hampshire until Super Tuesday. So without a monumental shift in the race, he will secure the nomination in short order.
New Hampshire is the only state where – however unlikely – we can entertain the possibility that the race could be shaken up enough to bring even more states into play.
Why is New Hampshire the only real opportunity?
It's the only state where the polls are even close. On average, Ms. Haley follows Mr. Trump by about 15 points in New Hampshire polls 49 percent to 34 percent. That's a comfortable lead for Mr. Trump, but there have been occasional polls showing a race in single digits. It's close enough to consider a Trump loss.
There is no other state where Trump has less than a 30 point lead in the latest (often outdated) polls. Even Ms. Haley's home state of South Carolina appears uncompetitive.
New Hampshire is about as good as it gets for Haley. Its appeal is almost exclusively limited to moderate and college-educated voters, and New Hampshire is an excellent state for a moderate Republican. The state ranks eighth in achieving four years of college education, and independent voters are allowed to participate in the primaries. It has a moderate Republican governor who supports Ms. Haley, not Mr. Trump. And in presidential primaries, the state typically supports moderate candidates — think John McCain and Mitt Romney. While Trump won by 35 percent in 2016, moderate establishment candidates collected a combined 49 percent of the vote — more than in any other primary state in 2016 except Vermont and Ohio, John Kasich's home state.
If she can't win in New Hampshire, there's no reason to think she can win elsewhere.
It is the only state that can create the perception of a new competitive race. I'm not 100 percent sure that New Hampshire is actually the No. 1 chance for a Haley win. Maybe Vermont is a better one, though a recent survey says no – or the District of Columbia. What I am certain of, however, is that none of these other opportunities can be treated as a “game changer” that could revive a small glimmer of hope for the potential opposition to Mr. Trump.
The early primaries in New Hampshire are receiving enormous media attention, and that would only increase if Ms. Haley pulls off an upset victory. It's early enough in the primary season that the state scoreboard would read “Trump 1, Haley 1” at the end of the evening. Come March, a win in a state like Vermont won't get nearly as much media attention. By then, a Haley victory would also be drowned out by other Trump victories, perhaps even on the same night — or, if not, just a few days later with another primary result. New Hampshire, on the other hand, will let the conversation drag on for a month. There will be no new elections with both Ms. Haley and Mr. Trump on the ballot until South Carolina, on February 24.
Beyond New Hampshire
It is important to emphasize that Trump would be an overwhelming favorite to win the nomination even if he were to lose New Hampshire. Ms. Haley is a classic factional candidate with limited appeal to moderate and highly educated voters. It's technically possible that New Hampshire will offer her a chance to broaden her appeal. But it is not even remotely likely that a conservative, populist, working-class party will swing 50 points against a well-known former president over the next 45 days toward the moderate, establishment candidate of highly educated voters. Even if Ms. Haley were to win New Hampshire, she could still be the underdog in every other state.
And conversely, the race may remain contested in some sense even if Trump wins New Hampshire decisively. Ms. Haley would likely move on to South Carolina, where Mr. Trump has a 30-point lead. But without New Hampshire to give her a political tailwind, there's no reason to think she could overcome this kind of staggering deficit. Instead, New Hampshire could put Trump on track for control of fifty states.
With a Trump victory on Tuesday, the race would begin to exhibit some of the hallmarks of the Democratic primaries. Yes, the leader is dealing with a challenger. But no, it would be unrealistic to believe that the front-runner could be defeated by campaigning as usual and winning the primaries — with the obligatory caveat that Trump's legal challenges could ultimately take a separate and new approach. bid because he loses down the line.