What happens next in Trump’s immunity case?

A federal appeals court in Washington has now heard arguments on former President Donald J. Trump’s sweeping claim that he is immune from prosecution on charges of conspiring to overturn the 2020 election.

The court has already disposed of the case at an exceptionally brisk pace and is expected to make a decision fairly quickly according to the standards of a typical appeal.

Here’s what can happen once that decision is made.

What happens after the appeals court rules?

If the appeals court rules in Trump’s favor, Jack Smith, the special counsel leading the prosecution, will almost certainly challenge the loss before the Supreme Court, assuming the justices agree to hear it.

But the most likely outcome is that the three-judge panel will rule against Mr Trump and reject his claims for immunity.

At that point, he could try to have the entire court hear the appeal — a move that, if nothing else, would eat up more time. If the full court were to refuse to hear the case or rule against him, he too would most likely ask the Supreme Court to intervene.

What happens if it goes to the Supreme Court?

The Supreme Court was given the chance to hear the case itself last month after Mr Smith took the unusual step of asking the justices to get ahead of the appeal court. But even though they turned down his request, it’s likely they’ll get another chance.

At that point, the court could theoretically refuse to hear the case altogether and simply uphold the appeals court’s ruling. That option could be attractive to the justices if they want to avoid stepping directly into a highly charged political issue — just one of many they are likely to face that could impact Trump’s chances for the White House to win back.

If that were to happen, the case would go back to Judge Tanya S. Chutkan, who is handling the underlying case in Federal District Court in Washington, and she would begin preparing for the trial, which is set to begin March 4. the handling of the case so far suggests she would move on quickly.

However, if the Supreme Court were to hear the case, the justices would have to make another crucial decision: how quickly to hear the case. It is possible that they could consider the matter quickly and rule on the immunity issue before – or even well before – the end of their current terms in June.

But Mr Smith has expressed concern in filings with the court that the judges may not be able to complete their work before the end of this term. If they don’t, the case would drag on into the next legislative session, which doesn’t start until October, too late to find a solution before Election Day.

What does all this mean for the start of the lawsuit?

If the appeals court quickly rules against Mr. Trump and the Supreme Court upholds that decision, the trial could be delayed, but perhaps only by a few weeks. In this scenario, it is conceivable that the case could go before a jury in April or May, well before the heart of the campaign season.

If the Supreme Court takes up the case and hears it on an expedited schedule, the trial could be delayed a little longer – perhaps by a few months. That would mean a trial could take place in the summer, a difficult possibility given that the Republican nominating convention is in July and that Mr. Trump, assuming he is the party’s nominee, could be prevented from doing many traditional to conduct campaigns during the duration of the elections. process.

But if the Supreme Court takes up the case and considers it calmly, there may be no trial at all before the general election in November. In that case, voters would not have the chance to hear the evidence in the case against Mr. Trump before making their choice — and a President Trump could try to ensure they never get that chance by trying to bring charges Pull.