Even the battle for second place turned out well for Trump in Iowa

If there was any question about whether Donald J. Trump was on track to clinch the Republican nomination, it was answered by Iowa voters Monday night.

The first Iowa caucuses gave him a landslide victory and provided the most concrete evidence yet of his dominance over the Republican Party.

With almost all votes counted, Trump's share was 51 percent. Ron DeSantis finished a distant second with 21 percent, while Nikki Haley finished at 19 percent.

The result is not surprising or even unexpected, but Trump's victory is no small achievement. A year ago, it didn't look like Iowa would have an easy time for the former president. Eight years ago, voters in Iowa rejected Trump in favor of Ted Cruz. And unlike the rest of the country, Iowa's political establishment has refused to rally behind Trump.

Not only did he win by a landslide anyway, but his 30-point margin of victory set a record for a contested Republican caucus in Iowa.

Better yet for Mr. Trump, neither Mr. DeSantis nor Ms. Haley posted a strong second-place finish, showing that this would have provided clear momentum for future races. If anything, Mr. DeSantis' second-place finish could dampen Ms. Haley's momentum heading into New Hampshire.

Trump's decisive victory was built on his usual — if still notable — strengths among working-class and rural voters, who made up the vast majority of the Iowa electorate. In county after county in rural Iowa, Mr. Trump won more than 60 percent of the vote — and sometimes 70 percent — while his rivals languished in the teens or single digits. He also excelled among white evangelical Christians and self-described “very conservative” voters — two groups that stopped him here eight years ago. It's a coalition that obviously gives him a big advantage in a party that is disproportionately conservative, working class, evangelical and rural. It was enough for him to win all but one of the state's counties, with his only defeat coming by one vote in Johnson County.

Mr. DeSantis suffered a serious setback for his already ailing candidacy. He seemed like a perfect fit for Iowa because the caucus' electorate typically favors ideologically conservative candidates. He followed the winning caucus playbook, including campaigning in all 99 counties and earning high-profile endorsements from the state's governor, many other elected Republicans in the state and prominent evangelical leaders. None of this seemed to make a difference.

The road ahead is bleak. No upcoming contest clearly offers Mr. DeSantis a better chance at victory, and his poll numbers are even weaker in the upcoming states. If he can't compete at Iowa, it's hard to imagine where he can. It raises the question of whether he will continue in the race, even though he has said he stays inside. Either way, Ms. Haley has overtaken Mr. DeSantis as Mr. Trump's closest, if distant, rival.

For Ms. Haley, third place is a disappointment, but not terrible. She showed significant strength among college-educated, independent suburban voters, who have long been Trump's biggest skeptics. She defeated Mr. Trump by a comfortable margin in districts where the majority of residents have four-year college degrees. She also won 64 percent of self-identified moderates.

Ms. Haley's strength among moderates and college students wasn't enough for second place in Iowa, as several late polls suggested, but voters like these will represent a much larger share of later primary voters. It could be just enough for her to compete in relatively well-educated states with a larger number of independent voters, including New Hampshire next week — where polls already show a close and tight race.

But the results also confirmed that its appeal is extremely limited, virtually confined to moderate and highly educated voters. In rural working-class neighborhoods, she routinely failed to get 10 percent of the vote. Admissions polls showed her winning just 9 percent among voters who never went to college.

College-educated and independent voters can only take so far with a candidate in a working-class Republican Party. Monday night certainly didn't get her far in Iowa. There is no way for Ms. Haley to win the nomination without significantly broadening her appeal among these base constituencies.