The most enduring force in American politics: Trump's ties to his voters
Bill Clinton once explained the country's two political parties by saying that Democrats want to fall in love, while Republicans want to align.
That adage has not survived the Trump era. These days, it's Republicans who are in love.
Donald J. Trump's decisive victory in Iowa revealed new depths in his party's reservoir of devotion. For eight years he has maintained a relationship with his supporters that has little precedent in politics. He validates them, he entertains them, he speaks for them and he uses them for his political and legal advantage.
This connection—a hard-earned bond for some, a cult of personality for others—has unleashed one of the most enduring forces in American politics.
Iowa Republicans, following party officials across the country, rallied behind the former president despite a list of reasons to reject him. Republicans lost control of the presidency, Senate and House of Representatives during his four years in office. He failed to deliver the red wave of victories he promised in the 2022 midterm elections. He has been charged with 91 crimes in four criminal cases in the past year.
And they stuck with him even though they were presented with viable alternatives: Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, a popular young governor who embraced Trump's policies, and Nikki Haley, one of the Deep South's first female governors, who credibly sage promised that she could do that. win back voters. Mr. Trump drove away.
But in the first chance Americans had to pass judgment on Trump since he tried to overturn an election, many Iowa Republicans made it clear they are not condemning him. They love him.
“Trump is not a candidate, he is the leader of a national movement,” said Newt Gingrich, a former speaker of the House of Representatives who has advised Mr. Trump. “Nobody knows what it's like to take on the champion of a movement. That's why even if all these legal issues pile up, it only enrages his movement and increases their anger incredibly.”
The risks associated with the kind of unusually strong grip Trump has on the party have already been exposed.
He has encouraged supporters to view him as above blame or defeat, a mentality that could lead to the kind of political violence that shocked the nation during the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. Elevating charisma above character could open the door to this kind of violence is opened. of the authoritarianism that Mr. Trump promised during his campaign last year.
“Many people who support Donald Trump are really fed up with democracy, representative democracy. They think an authoritarian-style government would probably be preferable at this point, to save the nation or whatever,” said former Rep. Charles. Bass, a New Hampshire Republican, previously voted for Trump but said he would not do so again. “I don't think they feel threatened if they have someone who at least has the quality of being more authoritarian than previous presidents.”
While Trump's victory was resounding, the results in Iowa indicate the party remains deeply divided over his return to power. About half of Iowa Republicans voted for one of Mr. Trump's rivals, including about 20 percent who supported Mr. DeSantis, who came in second, with Ms. Haley close behind.
Republicans who opposed Trump in Iowa included the party's youngest voters and anti-abortion rights conservatives who supported Mr. DeSantis, entry polls show.
Likewise, Ms. Haley won over moderate voters, Republicans who believed Trump lost the 2020 election, those who support a muscular foreign policy and the portion of the party that prioritized temperament in their choice of presidential candidate.
Party strategists and officials in other states warn against drawing sweeping conclusions from the votes of a small share of Republicans in a small state. As the Republican nominating contest moves to New Hampshire next week, a poll this month found that Ms. Haley at striking distance from Mr Trump. The state's voters tend to be more moderate and less religious, suggesting there is an opening for her.
Mr. DeSantis' ability to threaten Mr. Trump is less clear. He marketed himself to voters as a Trumpian wunderkind, capable of delivering America First policies without the drama and chaos that often dog the former president.
But Republicans showed they are less interested in policy than they are the man, and Mr. DeSantis was rebuffed by MAGA Nation, which rivals the Queen's Guard when it comes to being ready to defend their sovereign.
“I know God chose him for this hour,” said Patricia Lage, an Iowa caucus-goer who spoke in support of Mr. Trump Monday evening in Carlisle, outside Des Moines. “There are things he has done in the past, but we all have a past.”
Mr. Trump has spent years catering to his voters — targeting their shared enemies and anticipating their grievances. He has compulsively tried to ensure that he never stepped out of line.
That preoccupation repeatedly drove his decisions in the White House, from refusing to wear a mask during the first outbreak of Covid-19 in 2020 to his opposition to removing the names of Confederate generals from US military bases.
More recently, Mr. Trump has attacked Mr. DeSantis for signing a six-week abortion ban and avoiding a federal ban on the procedure, counting on his voters to agree or forgive him for deviating from a conservative core priority.
Perhaps most importantly, he has rallied their support amid unprecedented legal challenges, including detailing the persecution of these people it as an attempt at silence them.
“You and I have been in this fight side by side, together – and we have taken on the entire corrupt system in Washington like no one has ever done before,” Trump told Iowa supporters at a rally on Sunday. adding that the political establishment and global elites “are at war with us – we must fight.”
Voter anger over political institutions remains sky-high — a dynamic that explains what at first glance seems like nothing less than an act of political magic: the billionaire son of a multimillionaire has become the voice of working-class Americans.
“His gift is that the average voter in Iowa, New Hampshire and state after state feels connected to them,” said David Bossie, Trump's 2016 deputy campaign manager. “He's a blue-collar billionaire.”
Both Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley have sought to weaken Mr. Trump's ties with his supporters without launching many direct attacks on Mr. Trump. But the race to emerge as the Trump alternative is becoming increasingly urgent, with limited time for the candidates to cement that position.
Former Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, a supporter of Haley, lamented that much of his party had become “a kind of cult” around Mr. Trump. However, he still considers himself a Republican and views Mr. Trump as the intruder.
“I don't think Trump is a Republican,” Gregg said. “He is a demagogue.”
David Kochel, a Republican politician from Iowa who has long opposed Mr. Trump, said the former president's bond with his voters is unlikely to be replicated by other candidates. The party has become more populist and anti-establishment, but Mr. Trump's ability to capitalize on his celebrity status while tapping into the swirling mix of anger at elites, racial grievances and rising distrust of political, judicial and international institutions was unique for the time being. .
“He is a unicorn in our company,” Mr. Kochel said. “Republicans have become more populist and anti-establishment, but that doesn't mean the party will nominate Majorie Taylor Greene or Jim Jordan next. There is no way back to the old party.”
Alyce McFadden reporting contributed.