After the break: Trump chooses a running mate
With his nomination assured, Donald Trump is turning to what will almost certainly be a lengthy, orchestrated process to select his running mate. The former president, who knows a thing or two about television dramas, is dropping hints about it Who participates And who is outfueling interest in his rematch with Joe Biden.
“The VP selection process is the only time Trump is completely in charge, and watch him work hard, all the way to the announcement,” said Scott Reed, campaign manager for Bob Dole’s 1996 campaign for president.
But despite all the hoopla ahead, it is hardly guaranteed that the vice presidential pick will significantly change the contours of the presidential campaign. That rarely happens. Considering how Trump dominates the stage, it seems fair to wonder whether a running mate can break through.
“The vice presidential pick is something that generates a tremendous amount of press coverage but has the most minimal impact on the election,” said Dan Pfeiffer, White House communications director under Barack Obama.
Over the past fifty years, there has been no shortage of examples in which vice presidential selections arguably made no discernible difference: Hillary Clinton, for example, turned to Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia in 2016.
And every time the choice of a running mate has seemed to boost the ticket — as when Bill Clinton, the 1992 Democratic nominee for president, chose Senator Al Gore of Tennessee — there have been cases when it hurt more than that it helped. . (For example, Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee for president in 2008, came to regret wiretapping Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.)
Trump’s choice of Indiana Governor Mike Pence in 2016 fell into the “helps more than it hurts” category. Pence’s selection calmed conservatives and evangelicals wary of the playboy developer from New York becoming a presidential candidate.
The vice president’s position is disparaged as “not worth a hot bucket of spit,” to quote John Nance Garner, who held the position under Franklin Delano Roosevelt. While it may not be the most exciting job in Washington, it’s not all ribbon cuttings and state funerals: Pence made a choice on January 6, 2021 that had real consequences. And given that Trump is 77 and Biden is 81, their running mates may matter for actuarial reasons in the minds of some voters.
Still, in a race this close, what happens on the margins can matter. Here are a few variables that could play a role in Trump’s decision:
His feeling: Trump could very well choose the candidate he sees himself as, and Ohio Senator JD Vance likely tops that list. The choice of Vance could help Trump energize his supporters, but the question is whether this would do much to increase Trump’s own appeal.
It is reminiscent of Clinton’s contact with another baby boomer from the South, Gore, to join him. The creation of a two-of-a-kind ticket provoked a lot of skepticism in political circles, similar to the kind of skepticism a Vance pick might generate. But it worked, as became clear when Clinton and Gore headed out on their first bus tour from the Democratic National Convention at Madison Square Garden.
Race: With polls suggesting Biden is losing support among some minority voters, it may be smart for Trump to choose a black or Latino running mate. Tim Scott, the senator from South Carolina, is often mentioned among potential black candidates.
There are less obvious Latino candidates. One of the most high-profile people, Marco Rubio, the senator from Florida, has said he doesn’t have that interest in being number 2 on a Trump ticket.
“The question for Trump’s team is: Do they want to play offense or defense?” Pfeiffer said. “In other words, do they want to play a role for some Biden voters or do they want to help make Republicans uncomfortable with Trump’s chaos and criminality?”
Sex: There are many politically compelling reasons for Trump to choose a woman. He has struggled to gain support from female voters, and it would be a way to undermine the gender appeal that Kamala Harris brings to the Biden ticket.
“Trump has a reptilian political sense about where his political weaknesses lie, and that’s why I have a strong suspicion that Trump will choose a woman,” said Sarah Longwell, a Republican analyst and Trump critic. “And that has a lot to do with the fact that he struggles with women as a voting category, but also with his morality of putting women first and reproductive rights first.”
Possibilities include: Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota (more about her below), Representative Elise Stefanik of New York or Senator Katie Britt of Alabama – although Britt’s stock may have fallen after her bumpy turn that delivered the Republican rebuttal to Biden’s State of the Union Address.
The long shot: “I think Trump is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will take a good, thorough look,” Reed said. “He has 15 percent in the polls, and there is more coming from Biden than from Trump.”
Kennedy has said he has no interest in being the No. 2 pick on a ticket, and such a move could be the latest rift in his already strained relationship with his prominent family. But if Kennedy struggles to get on the ballot as an independent candidate, it could be difficult for him to resist a vice presidential nomination. “He’s very Trumpian,” Reed said of Kennedy. “And what better way to strengthen the connection between Trump, Camelot and Palm Beach than to elect a Kennedy?”
The Trumpification of Kristi Noem
South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem is preparing for her national close-up. How else should she interpret her recent controversial trip to Texas to “fix” her smile? documented in a long video?
As the race to become Donald Trump’s running mate heats up, Noem’s new smile reflects a tactical move that has as much to do with politics and psychology as it does with appearance.
“It’s all about her appeal to an audience of one,” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist. “The whole teeth thing almost seems like it was done for Trump. She shows him that she can work well in front of the camera, that she has the star power he wants on stage with him, while fitting into the fashion of women in the Trump universe.
After all, Trump was the president who often identified his staffers, especially members of the military, as coming from “central casting.”
Noem’s dental upgrade is simply the latest step in what appears to be a years-long makeover that has transformed her, more than any other woman on Trump’s shortlist, into what Samantha Sheppard, a professor of film and media studies at Cornell University, “the perfect decoration for Trump.”
Even beyond her popularity and credentials as governor and her MAGA platform, she offers an example of a certain kind of “Miss America-esque white femininity,” Sheppard said, also reflected in Fox News hosts and that includes cascading hair, extensive eyelashes and a dazzling smile.
This approach to political imagery has its roots in the pantomimed femininity of Phyllis Schlafly and Sarah Palin, where the promise of a powerful woman was undermined by her participation in the pageantry of traditional gender cosplay.
The teeth just complete the picture, as does the fact that Noem took the opportunity to talk to the dentist who performed the procedure. If anyone would see the value in using power to promote products, it would be Trump himself. And maybe you recognize a kindred spirit.
— Vanessa Friedman
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