Four takeaways from Turkey’s nail-biting presidential election

Turkey’s nerve-racking elections on Sunday made it clear that popular confidence in the country’s electoral system remains strong and that incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains a formidable political force despite his failure to secure a first-round victory.

A drain likely to be held on May 28 after preliminary results showed Erdogan 49.4 percent of the vote and his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, by 45 percent, according to the state-run news agency Anadolu. Mr Erdogan, who has led Turkey for 20 years, appeared to be in a strong position to come forward with another five years.

The elections were closely watched around the world to see how they could shape the future course of a key NATO ally with a wide range of diplomatic and economic ties across continents. Of particular concern was the fate of Mr Erdogan, who has often baffled and frustrated his Western partners, including the United States, and faced growing discontent amid high inflation and the devastation wrought by earthquakes in February more than 50,000 people died in southern Turkey.

Ahead of the vote, most polls suggested a slight lead for Mr Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of a newly formed alliance of six opposition parties. But the preliminary results showed Mr. Erdogan’s enduring appeal and influence.

Here are some key takeaways:

Turkey’s first run-off

This is the first election in Turkey’s history where no presidential candidate won a majority in the first round. That opens a complicated two-week window in which the candidates will do everything they can to attract more voters to their camps.

Sunday’s election was the second in the country since then a referendum in 2017, supported by Mr Erdogan that Turkey changed from a parliamentary to a presidential system. Mr Erdogan won the last two presidential elections, in 2014 and 2018, outright and by significant margins.

Still, his inability to do so this time makes it clear that he’s lost some support.

Erdogan has the advantage

Mr Erdogan appears to be ahead of Mr Kilicdaroglu, just ahead of an outright majority. The elimination of a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, leaves the 5.2 percent of voters who chose him, many on the right, up for grabs. Most of them will probably choose Mr. Erdogan.

In the run-up to the elections Mr. Erdogan freely drained state resources to increase its chances, by raising public sector salaries and the national minimum wage and freeing up other government spending in an effort to shield people from the immediate effects of high inflation. He could take more such measures between now and the second round.

What also helps Mr Erdogan defend his case is his party’s strong showing during Sunday’s parliamentary vote, which took place at the same time.

Preliminary results suggested that Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party and its allies would retain their majority in the 600-seat parliament. That would allow Mr. Erdogan to argue that he should win to avoid a divided government that could hamper the efficient functioning of the state.

For his part, Mr Kilicdaroglu has predicted he would win in a runoff election, telling his supporters early on Monday: “We will definitely win and bring democracy to this country.”

Turkish confidence in elections remains high

Across Turkey and in Turkish communities abroad, an overwhelming majority of the 64 million eligible voters made their voices heard. Some endured long lines and returned to earthquake-ravaged neighborhoods to practice what many consider a national duty.

While the Supreme Electoral Council, which oversees the election, has yet to release official figures, Anadolu reported turnout exceeded 88 percent. That is significantly higher than the turnout of 66.6 percent in the 2020 presidential election in the United States.

Such high numbers are not uncommon in Turkey.

In the last presidential and parliamentary elections, in 2018, about 85 percent of voters cast a vote. And since 1983, turnout in elections – including for mayors and municipal councils – has never fallen below 74 percent.

Many political scientists do not view Turkey as a pure democracy, largely because of the enormous power wielded by the president and his ability to shape the political playing field for the vote.

But Turks still take elections very seriously. So does Mr Erdogan, who told his supporters early Monday that he was ready to face a second round if necessary.

“In my political life, I have always respected your decision,” he said. “I expect the same democratic maturity from everyone.”

Nationalism seemed to gain the upper hand

Turkish voters may not prioritize foreign policy at the polls, but Mr Erdogan’s decision to ramp up nationalist rhetoric during the campaign seems to have paid off, both for him and for his Conservative parliamentary alliance.

During the campaign, Mr Erdogan had a warship in the center of Istanbul for voters to visit. He escalated his criticism of the United States, claiming it even on the eve of the election President Biden tried to overthrow him.

Mr Erdogan and members of his party also openly accused the opposition of collaborating with terrorists because they received the support of Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party. Turkish nationalists often accuse Kurdish politicians of supporting or collaborating with Kurdish militants who have been at war with the Turkish state for decades.

Mr Ogan, the third-place candidate, also spoke of prioritizing ways to send home the millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey and criticized the opposition coalition for its Kurdish support. In a second round, the candidate who more effectively espouses nationalist views could gain more of Mr. Ogan’s supporters.