After two years of bloody fighting, Ukraine is struggling with conscription
When Russian troops and tanks invaded Ukraine in February 2022, tens of thousands of Ukrainians rushed to serve in the military in a wave of patriotic enthusiasm. The influx of fighters who dutifully responded to their draft notices or volunteered helped repel Russia's initial attack and thwart the Kremlin's plans to decapitate the Ukrainian government.
But after nearly two years of bloody fighting, and with Ukraine once again needing new troops to fend off another Russian attack, military leaders can no longer rely solely on enthusiasm. More and more men are avoiding military service, while the call to demobilize exhausted frontline soldiers is increasing.
The change in mood was mainly reflected in the heated debates about a new one mobilization bill that could lead to the deployment of up to 500,000 troops. The bill was introduced to parliament last month but was quickly withdrawn for review.
The bill has fueled dissatisfaction in Ukrainian society over the army recruitment process, which has been labeled as rife with corruption and increasingly aggressive. Many lawmakers have said that some of its provisions, such as the ban on conscripts purchasing real estate, could constitute a human rights violation.
The biggest sticking point concerns the extremely delicate issue of mass mobilization. Measures that would make conscription easier are seen by experts as a way to pave the way for large-scale conscription, the kind that several military officials have recently said is needed to make up for battlefield losses and another year to endure heavy fighting. Many in Ukraine fear that such measures could fuel social tensions.
President Volodymyr Zelensky seems unwilling to take responsibility for drawing up a major draft. Instead, he asks his government and the military to come up with more arguments supporting this move. “I have not yet seen clear enough details to say that we need to mobilize half a million people,” he said in a speech. recent interview with Channel 4a British broadcaster.
The military has suggested that mass mobilization is a problem for the civilian government, a response that could worsen emerging tensions between Mr. Zelensky and his top commander, Valery Zaluzhny. The Ukrainian president reprimanded General Zaluzhny in the fall after saying the war had reached a stalemate.
“It's a hot potato,” said Petro Burkovsky, head of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, a Ukrainian think tank.
“The political leaders decided to avoid the issue of mobilization for most of the war,” Burkovsky said. But with troops depleted after two years, ignoring them is not sustainable, “and at this point someone has to be politically responsible.”
The challenge of amassing enough soldiers is just one of many facing Ukraine as foreign military and financial aid becomes harder to come by, threatening to weaken Kiev's ability to maintain the front line and support the economy.
The need to strengthen the Ukrainian armed forces has been clear for months. Although Kiev has kept the number of casualties secret, U.S. officials this summer estimated the toll at nearly 70,000 dead and 100,000 to 120,000 injured.
Russian losses, according to U.S. officials, were nearly twice as high as those resulting from sending waves of troops in bloody raids to take cities, regardless of the human cost. But Russia has a much larger population and has expanded its ranks with tens of thousands of prisoners.
In contrast, Ukraine's efforts to rebuild its armed forces have lagged behind.
Soldiers at the front said they had noticed a steady decline in the quality of recruits. Many are older, have injuries from years ago and are unmotivated to fight. More and more men are also trying to avoid the draft, fleeing the country or hiding at home. Desertion, said a Ukrainian soldier stationed in the east, is also becoming a problem.
That has prompted military recruiters to turn to more aggressive tactics, forcing men into draft offices, detaining them, sometimes illegally, and forcing them to enlist. Advocates and activists have spoken out, but there is little sign of change. Many Ukrainians compare recruiters to 'people robbers'.
General Zaluzhny said in a essay in November that the recruitment process needed to be overhauled “to build up our reserves.” But he and other officials have offered little alternative to a large-scale mobilization.
Mr. Zelensky has said that his military leaders have asked him to mobilize 450,000 to 500,000 troops. “This is a significant number,” he said last month, adding that a plan had to be put in place before he could decide.
Experts say this is the main goal of the mobilization law, which does not specify how many troops should be added. It would lower the draft age from 27 to 25, limit deferrals for minor disabilities and limit draft evaders' ability to get a loan or buy real estate. It also gives local authorities greater responsibility for conscription.
Viktor Kevliuk, a retired Ukrainian colonel who oversaw mobilization in western Ukraine from 2014 to 2018, said the bill was “specifically intended” to facilitate the drafting of hundreds of thousands of people.
“The state is taking a strong stance on how quickly it can provide its armed forces with so many personnel,” Kevliuk said.
But many lawmakers, including from Mr. Zelensky's party, have expressed concern about measures such as those affecting the disabled and draft evaders. They also say that relying on local governments can make problems worse. Regional recruitment centers are plagued by corruption, with officers taking bribes to allow men to avoid conscription.
“All in all, this made this bill unacceptable in its form,” said Oleksiy Honcharenko, an MP from the opposition European Solidarity party.
Mr Honcharenko added that the introduction of the bill in parliament had been “messy”, reflecting the government's desire “to avoid political responsibility”. The bill was introduced on Christmas Eve some critics saw it as an attempt to go unnoticed, and in the name of Prime Minister Denys Schmyhal, rather than Mr Zelensky.
After several days of debate this month, lawmakers sent the bill back for review.
“I clearly understand that the army's task is to achieve success at the front,” said Ruslan Stefanchuk, the speaker of parliament. recently told the Ukrainian news media. “However, we must work together to regulate such important and sensitive processes as mobilization.”
Rustem Umerov, Ukraine's Defense Minister, said the government was already making revisions. He expressed frustration over the lawmakers' decision, saying the mobilization had been “politicized and stalled.”
Mr Honcharenko said a broader debate is needed on Ukraine's military strategy. No one had clearly explained why it was now necessary to employ up to half a million people, he said, confusing citizens.
“If our strategy is to attack through Russian minefields, with Russian air superiority, then maybe 500,000 people are not enough, I don't know. Maybe one million, or even two million, won't be enough,” he said. “We cannot compete with Russia when it comes to the number of people. They will always win this game, they are just bigger than us.”
Mr. Burkovsky, the political analyst, said Ukrainian authorities had failed to “plan the pace of recruitment, training and replenishment of troops” in the first year of the war, forcing them to go through the conscription process without addressing the underlying issues causing concern in Ukrainian civil society.
For example, the bill leaves open the possibility of demobilizing troops after three years of service. But relatives of men who have fought since the war began say that is too long and they must now be replaced. In recent weeks, Ukrainian cities have seen a growing number protests calling for immediate demobilizationa rare show of public criticism in wartime.
Mr Zelenskiy has also highlighted the costs of mobilization for Ukraine's weak economy.
Conscription means fewer taxpayers have to cover a larger military payroll. Mr. Zelensky said last month that mobilizing more than 450,000 people would cost 500 billion Ukrainian hryvnias, about $13 billion — while the continuation of Western financial aid is in doubt.
“Where are we going to get the money from?” Mr. Zelensky asked.
Daria Mitiuk reporting contributed.