Zelensky, citing equipment gaps, says it is too early for a counter-offensive
KYIV, Ukraine — President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday Ukraine needed more time to launch a counter-offensive against Russia as it does not yet have enough military equipment from its Western backers, though Ukrainian officials had repeatedly described the attack as imminent .
In terms of personnel and motivation, the Ukrainian armed forces are ready for the operation, Zelensky said in an interview broadcast on Thursday by the BBCbut they are still waiting for some promised hardware from the West, especially armored vehicles.
“We can move forward and, I think, be successful,” he said. “But we would lose a lot of people. I find that unacceptable. So we have to wait. We need a little more time.”
Ukrainian military and political analysts said Mr Zelensky was right about the continuing shortcomings ahead of an operation that Ukraine and its supporters hope will mark a turning point in the war. But they also pointed to other possible motives behind his comments: to pressure the Allies to increase supplies, lower expectations for the counter-offensive, and sow confusion. the Kremlin on Kiev’s intentions.
For months, Ukraine’s political and military leaders have signaled they are preparing a major assault to retake territory occupied by Russia since it invaded last year, though they haven’t said exactly when or where the blow would come. Some analysts have predicted that the counter-offensive would target the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of southern Ukraine, not the eastern Donbas region, which has seen the heaviest fighting for months.
A Russian military leader claimed on Thursday that the Ukrainian counter-offensive was already underway.
Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, head of Wagner’s private militia, said it happened in the Donbas and centered on the city of Bakhmut, where his mercenaries have led a debilitating attack that has claimed tens of thousands of lives. In an audio message posted on Telegram his press service dismissed Mr. Zelensky’s comments as a ruse.
“The counter-offensive is moving at full speed,” he said, adding that it would start in the Bakhmut area and then shift to the Zaporizhzhia region. He said about the Ukrainians: “Those units that have undergone the necessary training, received weapons, equipment, tanks and everything else – they are already fully deployed.”
Ministry of Defense of Russia said in a statement it had repelled some Ukrainian “reconnaissance operations” in the east, but described the actions in routine terms and denied there had been any breakthrough.
Ukrainian forces this week made gains around Bakhmut for the first time since March, commanders on both sides say, but it’s unclear whether those reflect opportunistic, small-scale attacks or the start of something bigger.
Mr. Prigozhin has historically been ahead of Russian officials in acknowledging what is happening on the battlefield, but he has also made questionable claims in his campaign to extort more supplies from a Russian military command he bitterly criticizes.
A Russian military blogger, Oleksandr Simonov, who often collaborates with Wagner fighters in Ukraine, posted on Thursday that they had continued their advance into the city of Bakhmut, but that Ukrainian troops had forced Russian troops to withdraw to two places north of the city. On Tuesday, the Russians ceded a few square miles southwest of the city.
Whatever Mr. Zelensky’s intentions, his comment about being unprepared is correct, said Taras Chmut, head of Come Back Alive, a charitable foundation that provides military supplies to the Ukrainian army. Despite tens of billions of dollars in arms supplies, and more to come, the Ukrainian military is falling short equipment, including artillery shells, armored vehicles and air defense systems, he said.
“The amount we have collected in recent months is still not enough for a successful counter-offensive,” said Mr. Chmut, a former military officer. But, he added, “It is the decision of the highest military command to accept the risks.”
Maria Zolkina, head of regional security and conflict studies at the Kiev-based Democratic Initiatives Foundation, said Mr Zelensky’s interview was “partly a political statement to get Western partners to accelerate those supplies.” She said he was probably also looking to temper any high expectations in case the counter-offensive “wasn’t as successful as expected”.
But, Ms. Zolkina added, “I don’t rule out that it was an information ploy as Ukraine tries to hide its preparations.”
Shashank Joshi, defense editor at The Economist, put it more bluntly: “Of course, this is what you would say if the counter-offensive was about to begin,” he said. wrote on Twitter,
Ms Zolkina said Kyiv was concerned that if the operation did not yield major benefits, there could be pressure from some Western partners to negotiate an end to the war or accept less aid.
On Thursday, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told parliament that the government would provide Ukraine with air-launched cruise missiles capable of striking from up to 250 kilometers away. The Storm Shadow missile, with a 990-pound explosive warhead, would enable Ukraine to launch powerful strikes against targets in Crimea, the peninsula Russia illegally captured in 2014.
“Ukraine has the right to defend itself,” Wallace said. “The use of Storm Shadow will enable Ukraine to push back Russian forces stationed on Ukrainian sovereign territory.”
The Biden administration has so far refused to send such long-range munitions to Ukraine, fearing to provoke some kind of escalation by Russia. But the war has lessened resistance from the White House, which has agreed to send advanced weapons that previously seemed off-limits, such as Patriot air defense systems and HIMARS missile launchers.
Ben Hodges, a retired lieutenant general who was the commanding general of the US military in Europe and is in favor of giving Ukraine long-range weapons, said on Twitter that the British cruise missiles would pose a threat to Russia’s Black Sea fleet, based in Sevastopol , in Crimea. “This gives Ukraine the opportunity to make Crimea untenable for Russian troops,” he said.
Ukrainian leaders have maintained they intend to reclaim Crimea, but for now it may be more important as a staging and supply area for Russian operations in southern Ukraine.
If Mr. Zelensky’s comments about delaying launching the campaign were an attempt at deception, it would be consistent with an information war that has been full of feints and surprises.
Last fall, the Ukrainian army announced it was planning a counterattack in the south, prompting Russia to move troops south, leaving its defenses in the northeast’s Kharkiv region understaffed. The Ukrainian military command then attacked there, surprising the Russians – as well as many of its own troops – and retaking a huge chunk of territory in a roundabout way.
Just 10 weeks ago, deliveries of Western weapons came to a standstill fall far short of what Ukraine needed for a counter-offensive, according to secret US military assessments from February and March.
But two weeks ago, NATO’s top military commander, US Army General Christopher G. Cavoli, said that by then Ukraine would received 98 percent of combat vehicles needed to go into battle.
Yet Ukrainian officials regularly say they need more and better weapons. And in recent days they have tried to manage the expectations of their own people and Western allies, saying that there may not be any decisive battles.
“It seems like we are in a Hollywood movie, where a great battle for Middle-earth begins, and one battle for Gondor will decide everything,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, a presidential adviser, referring to “The Lord of the Rings.” “It doesn’t happen that way.”
“It’s not a matter of a week or a month,” he said. “This is a matter of many events, because one may be more successful and the other less successful.”
Carlota Gall reported from Kiev, Shashank Bengali And Matthew Mpoke Bigg from London, and Lara Jacks from Rome. Oleksandr Chubko contributed reporting from Kiev, and Anatoly Kurmanaev from Berlin.