Venezuela announces election date, while opposition candidate remains banned

Venezuelan officials announced Tuesday that national elections will take place on July 28 that many had hoped would pave a path to democracy.

But the decision on a date comes a month after the country’s highest court barred the leading opposition candidate from the ballot, leaving many wondering how free and fair the summer elections would be.

Still, the announcement by President Nicolás Maduro’s government is at least partial fulfillment of a commitment to the United States to hold elections this year in exchange for lifting crippling economic sanctions.

In October, Maduro signed a deal with the country’s opposition, agreeing to work toward a free and fair presidential election. In the deal, Maduro said he would hold elections before the end of this year, and the United States in turn lifted some sanctions as a sign of goodwill.

But just days later, Maduro watched as opposition candidate María Corina Machado won more than 90 percent of the vote in a primary organized by the opposition and without government intervention. The decisive results highlighted her popularity and raised the prospect that she could defeat him in a general election.

Since then, Maduro’s government has declared Ms. Machado ineligible to run because of what it says were financial irregularities that occurred while she was a national lawmaker, and has arrested several members of her campaign. Men on motorcycles have attacked supporters at her events.

The temporary easing of US sanctions on the oil and gas sector expires on April 18, and the Biden administration could choose to reimpose them then.

Tuesday’s announcement “makes crystal clear that Venezuela will not have free and fair elections this year” and “all but guarantees that the Biden administration will roll back sanctions,” said Geoff Ramsey, a senior fellow on Venezuela at the Atlantic Council, a researcher. institution based in Washington.

Chavismo, the socialist-inspired movement led by Mr. Maduro, has controlled Venezuela for 25 years. Mr Maduro came to power in 2013 after the death of his predecessor, President Hugo Chávez, and remained in power after the 2018 election, the results of which were widely considered fraudulent. Those elections were followed by a period of international isolation, during which many countries followed the United States’ lead in refusing to do business with Venezuela.

The date of the upcoming elections, July 28, is Mr Chávez’s birthday. The announcement came on the date of his death, March 5.

The choice is likely intended to leverage Mr. Chávez’s legacy to bolster the electability of Mr. Maduro, who is deeply unpopular, according to Phil Gunson, an analyst at the International Crisis Group based in the country’s capital, Caracas. .

Opposition candidates can register until March 25. It is unclear whether Ms. Machado’s party will try to push for her candidacy or whether it will seek to unite around another candidate.

A fractured opposition will likely be a boon to Maduro’s candidacy.

“The combination of a divided opposition, heavy abstentions and weak opponents gives him the best chance of winning without having to commit fraud,” Mr Gunson said.