They predict the weather in New York, but they are not in New York

Good morning. It's Monday and since it's National Weathermen Day, we'll look at where New York's forecasts come from. We will also find out what happened to a police robot.

It's going to be sunny in New York today, National Weather People Day. Highs will be in the low 40s.

Many of the forecasts that reflect this information will be written by meteorologists who are not in the New York area. If they looked out the window, they wouldn't see the New York imperiousness of the skyline, the New York sparkle of the bridges, or the New York yellow of the cabs.

The New York office of the National Weather Service is located on Long Island, 65 miles from Times Square. AccuWeather, the forecast service, has 100 forecasters issuing forecasts at its headquarters in State College, Pennsylvania. The Weather Company, which operates the Weather Channel app and the Weather.com and Weather Underground websites, is located just outside of Atlanta.

“The way forecasts are made these days, you don't have to be there,” says Melissa Medori of the Weather Company. And with data from automated weather stations and weather “spotters” around the city, “even here,” said Dave Radell, a Weather Service meteorologist, from Long Island, “we have enough data to sift through to let us know what happens. in the city.”

For the record, the New York Today forecast is written in New York, based largely on the Weather Service forecasts. The weather forecast for the print issue of The New York Times comes from AccuWeather. The Times also has a weather data team with a meteorologist based in Atlanta.

National Weatherperson's Day recognizes those who follow the example of a colonial-era Bostonian, Johannes Jeffries. He became one of America's first weather observers when he began recording daily conditions in 1774.

Jeffries kept an eye on the weather until 1816, but from 1776 there was a period of fourteen years. During the Revolutionary War, Jeffries had a tendency to wound redcoats. That put him on a kind of enemies list: he was among the 300 Tories named in a Massachusetts law making it illegal for them to return to that state.

Apparently things had settled in 1790, when he resettled in Boston and resumed his resistance work.

No such gaps exist in weather records for New York City, but they only go back to 1869 – and involve less drama.

Automated measurements, except when it snows

New York is unusual these days: The Weather Service bases its forecasts on measurements of temperature, humidity and precipitation taken from within the city itself – from a gated area in the shadow of Belvedere Castle in Central Park.

Meteorology discovered remote technology long before much of the rest of the world did, so no one takes measurements in Central Park unless it's snowing. When that happens, only rarely in the past few years, the Central Park Conservancy, the nonprofit that manages the park, sends out employees to measure snowfall and report their findings to the Weather Service. New York went 701 days without significant accumulation, until January 16, when a modest decline of 1.7 inches occurred.

Is it harder to predict the weather for New York than for other places?

“Everyone tells you their place is the worst to predict, yada yada,” says Dale Eck, director of the Weather Company's global forecast center.

But, he said, the city's proximity to the Atlantic Ocean could make a difference if a winter storm barrels toward New York. And Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist, said a relatively small shift in a storm track could be important.

“For things right along the I-95 corridor, a difference of 10 or 12 miles could mean very little snow or an icy mix or a foot or more of snow,” Porter said, recalling a recent storm when the rain-snow line followed. Interstate 95 along the east coast.

The Weather Service's Radell mentioned a nationwide network that provides data on sightings from 126 locations 24 hours a day.

But that network, the New York State Mesonet, operated by SUNY Albany, only collects data and does not provide forecasts, the director said. Christopher Thorncroft. He is also director of the university's Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, which is also responsible for the New York City Micronet, a series of seventeen weather monitoring stations at Con Edison facilities around the city.

The Mesonet can help state and local officials know when a storm becomes more intense than predicted, Thorncroft said, such as when torrential rains from Hurricane Ida in 2021 turned some basement apartments into death traps.

Weather

Enjoy a sunny day in the low 40s. The evening will be clear, with temperatures dropping into the upper twenties.

ALTERNATE PARKING

In effect until Friday (New Year's Eve).

The latest Metro news

It was an unceremonious end to a short test drive that started with much fanfare. The police robot, which has stood 6 feet tall in the Times Square subway station since September, has been retired.

The device, which weighed 400 pounds and was known as the Knightscope K5, was initially deployed to keep an extra eye on crime.

It had limited mobility – it could not use stairs – and companions were needed. The police have instructed officers to accompany her on her rounds.

“Who took care of whom, the robot for the police, or the police for the robot?” asked Jose Natera, a construction worker who said he usually saw two officers standing awkwardly next to him.

Adams had hoped the robot would bring safety and order to the subway at a time when crime remains a pressing concern for many New Yorkers. The robot should have provided an extra pair of eyes in a system where passenger numbers are still far below pre-pandemic levels.

On Friday, my colleagues Dana Rubinstein and Hurubie Meko wrote that the robot was collecting dust in an empty storefront at the station like a sad Wall-E.

A spokesperson for the mayor said the robot had worked a shift from midnight to 6am. On Thursday, two police officers stationed at the turnstiles near where the robot was parked said they did not recall ever seeing the robot on the track, although they noted they were not regularly assigned to the station.

One of the officers said he was relieved the robot was mothballed. He didn't want to be responsible for it.

METROPOLITAN diary

Day off in Manhattan

Dear Diary:

The first time I visited New York City was in June 2001 as part of a youth group working for a week at a church on Staten Island.

During the trip, we spent most of the week at church, but we planned a day off in Manhattan. It was my only purpose to go.

When the day arrived for our trip to Manhattan, we were all asked what we wanted to see. I asked to go to Chinatown. My father had immigrated to the United States from Hong Kong and spent some time in Chinatown before moving south and meeting my mother.

The group leader agreed to add my stop to the list, and off we went.

After taking a tour of several other tourist spots, it was time for Chinatown. I was looking forward to busy walking paths, street vendors and maybe a quick snack at a dumpling restaurant.

As we walked up the steps of the subway, my excitement was crushed when another girl said she couldn't stand the strong smell coming from the shops where the fish was displayed on the sidewalk.

We quickly got back onto the subway at Canal Street. Our next stop – a big box store in Midtown – was chosen by the girl who had objected to the fishy smell.

I live in the city now and have never gone back to that shop, but I have eaten a lot of dumplings in Chinatown.

– Ginger Lau

Illustrated by Agnes Lee. Send your entries here And read more Metropolitan Diary here.