What to Watch for in the 2024 Iowa Caucuses
The coldest Iowa caucuses in history arrive Monday night, amid expectations that Republicans in the state will propel former President Donald J. Trump to a third GOP presidential nomination.
The battle for second place, a hard-fought battle between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, will be Trump's biggest rival ahead of the New Hampshire primary and beyond.
The stakes for Iowans are high. Mr. Trump is seeking a return to the presidency despite — or perhaps because of — 91 felonies from four criminal prosecutions, a looming fraud verdict that could decide the fate of his New York real estate empire and a pending decision on the defamation of a woman who he has already been held liable for sexual abuse.
His opponents have called on Republican voters to move beyond the “chaos” and controversies of the Trump era and choose another standard-bearer to take on President Biden, who defeated Mr Trump in 2020. Iowans will make the first judgment on those pleas.
Here's what to watch as the results roll in.
Will Trump reach 50 percent?
Traditionally, the Iowa caucuses are squeakers, so close that Democrats failed to produce definitive results in the chaotic battle of 2020. Republicans wrongly declared Mitt Romney the narrow winner in 2012, leaving the de facto victor, Rick Santorum , was deprived of the momentum that a caucus triumph can deliver.
This time, polls show Trump consistently with a large lead, so much so that the former president has barely campaigned in the state. Until the final weekend, he and his campaign projected confidence in a major victory, which has raised expectations while most campaigns are trying to lower them.
If Trump tops 50 percent, he will earn what he says would be “a historic landslide.” Perhaps more importantly, Iowa will have sent the signal that even if the Republican field shifts to Mr. Trump and one competitor, he can still have the loyalty of a majority of the party's primary voters, at least in the heartland of the country.
Who will claim second place?
DeSantis officially entered the Republican presidential race in May with strong financial support, saying he would win Iowa and help the party turn the page on Trump while still embracing his policies.
But a campaign apparatus built around his super PAC faltered just as Ms. Haley found her footing. She had initially focused on New Hampshire and her home state, arriving late at Iowa.
Not surprisingly, the latest Iowa poll from The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom had Mr. Trump comfortably in the lead, with the support of 48 percent of likely caucusgoers. Ms. Haley had 20 percent and Mr. DeSantis had 16 percent — a separation at the edge of the survey's margin of error.
A second-place finish for Ms. Haley would give her an edge ahead of New Hampshire, where she is closing in on Mr. Trump and could benefit from former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey's withdrawal from the presidential race on Wednesday. For Mr. DeSantis, third place could spell doom, ahead of New Hampshire, true he's gotten into single digits in terms of polling averages, and South Carolina, a redoubt for Mr. Trump and home to Ms. Haley.
Can Haley ensure that electability is preserved?
Ms. Haley's closing argument in Iowa was that she would not only beat Mr. Biden in the general election but defeat him in a resounding landslide that would usher in an era of unified conservative governance in Washington. a CBS News poll was released Sunday showed that both Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis narrowly led the president, but Ms. Haley defeated him by eight percentage points, 53 percent to 45 percent.
Many Republicans in Iowa are convinced that Mr. Trump is a proven asset who can defeat Mr. Biden, despite the former president's personal baggage and legal jeopardy. But Ms. Haley's argument about electability has produced compelling results among college-educated Republican voters, 39 percent of whom supported her in a New York Times/Siena College poll released last month.
Her job in Iowa is to ensure that a significant number of Iowans remain without a college degree while trying to appeal to a broader Republican electorate that Mr. Trump has transformed into a bastion of voters without a college education. Ms. Haley received support from just 3 percent of those voters in the Times/Siena poll.
Who will show up to the caucus?
The Iowa caucuses have never been particularly Democratic. Monday's meetings at 1,657 locations look more like party meetings. The locals will gather, do some business, hear pitches from representatives of each campaign, and then finally turn in secret ballots. Caucuses can be time-consuming and public – and not particularly well attended.
In 2016, when Republicans held their last contested caucuses, 186,874 votes were cast. 615,066 registered Republicansa turnout of about 30 percent.
Temperatures will reach minus 7 degrees in much of the state on Monday evening, with snow blowing across icy roads. Mr. DeSantis has boasted of a sweeping operation to win the vote. Ms. Haley is the door knocker for Americans For Prosperity Action, a conservative activist group funded by the fortune of Charles and David Koch. Trump has a much better organized ground game than in 2016, when he finished second to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. All of that will be a battle against the elements.
Mr. Trump told his supporters in Indianola, Iowa, on Monday to meet even if “you are as sick as a dog.” Then he joked: “Even if you vote and then die, it will be worth it.”
Turnout will affect not only the order in which the candidates finish, but also how real their bragging rights are in the coming more representative primaries.
What about the other candidates?
No one has put as much shoe leather into Iowa as Vivek Ramaswamy, the entrepreneur and increasingly conspiratorial political newcomer who briefly saw a peak in support in Augustand then dive back into the individual figures – 8 percent in the latest Iowa Poll.
There's also former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and a Texas businessman and pastor, Ryan Binkley, who both came in at 1 percent in the latest Iowa Poll.
Such numbers do not indicate that any of them have enormous influence, although Trump was clearly playing to Ramaswamy's voters when he attacked his former ally on Saturday.
Traditionally, the Iowa caucuses have weeded out the “also-rans.” Former Vice President Mike Pence, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina and Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota did not even make it to the first round of voting. (Mr. Burgum endorsed Mr. Trump at the Indianola rally.)
Both Mr Ramaswamy and Mr Hutchinson say they will exceed expectations.
“I believe I am the last, best chance this country has,” Mr. Ramaswamy told Iowans at an event on Friday.
But depending on their performance Monday, it remains to be seen whether they will drop out and choose a side: Mr. Trump, or whoever.