A ceasefire in Gaza helps both sides. Until Calculus changes.

The decision by Israel and Hamas to extend their brief ceasefire has provided short-term benefits for both sides, but increases uncertainty about how, when and if Israel will continue its invasion of the Gaza Strip.

The agreement to extend the ceasefire from four to six days has raised expectations that both sides will now agree to more short extensions – but if that happens it could only increase competing pressure on Israel.

From the outside world, Israeli leaders will face calls to make the ceasefire permanent. Within their own country, however, there will be competing demands that they resume the fight and crush Hamas while also securing the release of Israeli hostages.

On Tuesday, both Israel and Hamas accused each other of violating the ceasefire. The Israeli army said explosives were detonated near its forces in two places in northern Gaza, and militants fired on them in one area. Hamas said its fighters were involved in a “field conflict” provoked by Israel, without providing additional details.

But neither side signaled a withdrawal from the deal, and on Tuesday Hamas released another 12 hostages – ten Israelis and two Thai nationals – who were kidnapped when it attacked Israel on October 7. fire, another release is expected on Wednesday.

Since the lull in fighting began on Friday, Hamas has returned 60 Israeli hostages and released 21 citizens of other countries through separate negotiations. Israel has released 180 Palestinians held in its prisons.

At this point, the small extensions of the ceasefire benefit both Hamas and Israel.

For Hamas, they allow the organization to extend its control over most of Gaza, where it has been routed by Israeli forces in the north. A longer pause would give Hamas more time to regroup and reposition its forces.

For Israel, any extension means the return of even more of its citizens captured by Hamas – welcome news for a public traumatized by the raids and closely following developments in Gaza. About 240 people were taken hostage by Hamas and its allies, and for each additional day of the ceasefire, the two sides agreed to exchange about 10 Israelis for 30 Palestinians imprisoned in Israel.

Gaza residents are also benefiting from the ceasefire, which has allowed more aid to be delivered through Egypt to its 2.2 million residents, most of whom have been uprooted by the fighting and are facing severe food and fuel shortages .

But the longer the dynamic continues, the greater Israel’s mystery.

With the daily releases of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, Hamas’s popularity has soared in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, where many of the freed Palestinians have returned. That has fueled the low-level conflict.

A long lull in fighting in Gaza could also delay Israel’s invasion, jeopardizing the stated goal of removing Hamas from power. Biden administration officials are already pushing Israel to fight more surgically once it returns to its invasion. And international pressure is mounting on Israel to stop its attacks completely.

Domestically, some Israelis fear a long extension would give Hamas too much power over the Israeli psyche, said Anshel Pfeffer, a political commentator for Haaretz, a left-wing Israeli newspaper.

“Israel faces a real dilemma,” Mr. Pfeffer said. “With every release of hostages, Hamas holds the whip over Israeli emotions. Ultimately, Israel will have to decide between releasing more hostages – or preventing Hamas from dictating the mood in the country.”

The arrest of so many hostages, including a nine-month-old baby, has taken a heavy toll on many Israelis, and the complicated hostage negotiation process, fraught with delays and disagreements, has only added to that torment.

The mediators who worked to broker the ceasefire hope that the current model will generate enough momentum to prevent the resumption of hostilities and create the conditions necessary for longer-term talks, they said two people with knowledge of the mediation efforts. , who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations.

But they expect the process will become more difficult once all civilian hostages are removed and negotiations move to the release of Israeli soldiers captured on October 7. Hamas is expected to demand the release of more prisoners from Israel or above. profile – a change in “the exchange rate,” as one person with knowledge of the conversations put it.

On Tuesday, Central Intelligence Agency Director William J. Burns arrived in Doha, Qatar, for a new round of negotiations aimed at freeing more hostages held in Gaza, US officials said. Mr Burns and David Barnea, the head of Mossad, Israel’s spy agency, met with General Abbas Kamel, the head of Egypt’s intelligence service, and Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani, the Prime Minister of Qatar.

Israel Defense Forces officials say they remain determined to root out Hamas, which killed an estimated 1,200 people in the Oct. 7 attack. More than 13,000 people are reported to have been killed in Gaza in the Israeli air and ground assault that followed.

“The IDF is prepared to continue fighting,” Israeli military chief of staff Herzi Halevi said in a statement on Tuesday. “We are using the days of the pause as part of the framework to learn, strengthen our preparedness and approve future operational plans.”

Israel has said it is targeting Hamas throughout Gaza, including where its members are among civilians, and in an extensive underground tunnel network.

Israeli forces have captured part of northern Gaza, roughly in the shape of a C: the northern edge of the strip, a stretch along the Mediterranean coast and the central strip below Gaza City. The forces largely surrounded Gaza City and split the strip into two halves, in an attempt to disrupt Hamas’ hold on the enclave and drive it out of the largest city.

Some analysts say Israeli domestic pressure will likely push Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to revive the invasion sooner rather than later. Delaying it would put Netanyahu on a collision course with far-right ministers who reluctantly supported the ceasefire because they were assured the invasion would continue after only a brief truce.

Ben Hubbard reporting contributed.