In Strategic Bind, Israel weighs the release of hostages against the destruction of Hamas

After more than a hundred days of war, Israel's limited progress in dismantling Hamas has raised doubts within the military's high command about the short-term feasibility of achieving the country's main wartime objectives: eradicating Hamas and also freeing the Israeli hostages still in Gaza.

Israel at this point in the war has gained control of a smaller part of Gaza than it originally envisioned in battle plans from the start of the invasion, which were reviewed by The New York Times. That slower-than-expected pace has led some commanders to privately express their frustrations with the civilian government's strategy for Gaza, and led them to conclude that the freedom of more than a hundred Israeli hostages still in Gaza can only be secured secured by diplomatic rather than military means.

The twin goals of freeing the hostages and destroying Hamas are now mutually incompatible, according to interviews with four senior military leaders, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not allowed to speak publicly about their personal views .

There is also a clash between how long Israel would need to completely eradicate Hamas – a time-consuming battle in the group's warren of underground tunnels – and the pressure, exerted by Israel's allies, to conclude the war quickly amid a spiral of civilian deaths. toll.

The generals further said that a protracted battle aimed at completely dismantling Hamas would most likely cost the lives of Israeli hostages held in Gaza since October 7, when Hamas militants invaded Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking about 240 prisoners. according to Israeli estimates.

Hamas released more than 100 hostages in November but has said it will not release the others unless Israel agrees to a complete cessation of hostilities. Most of the remaining hostages are believed to be held by Hamas cells hiding in the underground fortress of tunnels that extend hundreds of miles beneath the surface of Gaza.

On Thursday, Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief serving in the war cabinet, exposed a rift within the government when he said in a television interview that it was an “illusion” to believe the hostages could be rescued alive through military operations . .

“The situation in Gaza is such that the war goals have yet to be achieved,” Mr. Eisenkot said, adding: “For me there is no dilemma. The mission is to save civilians before an enemy is killed.”

This strategic tie, according to the four commanders, has increased the army's frustration with the indecisiveness of Israel's civilian leadership.

The commanders said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ambiguity on a post-war plan for Gaza was at least partly responsible for the army's predicament on the battlefield.

Mr Netanyahu has yet to clarify how Gaza will be governed after the war – and commanders said that without a long-term vision for the territory, the military would not be able to make short-term tactical decisions about how to manage parts of Gaza held by the Gaza Strip, must be taken. remain outside Israeli control. Capturing the southernmost part of Gaza, which forms the Egyptian border, would require greater coordination with Egypt. But Egypt is not prepared to go into the post-war plan without guarantees from Israel, three of the commanders said.

Asked for comment, Netanyahu's office said in a statement that “the prime minister is leading the war against Hamas with unprecedented achievements in a very decisive manner.” In a speech on Thursday, Mr Netanyahu pledged to both achieve a “total victory over Hamas” and rescue the hostages.

The Israeli military declined to respond to the commanders' comments.

The generals fear that a prolonged campaign – without a post-war plan – would erode the remaining support of Israel's allies, limiting their willingness to provide additional ammunition.

Foreign leaders are alarmed by the death toll from Israel's campaign: according to health authorities in the enclave, more than 24,000 Gazans have been killed in the war, prompting accusations – strongly denied by Israel – of genocide. Officials in Gaza have not said how many of the dead were fighters, but Israeli military officials say the toll includes more than 8,000 fighters.

Families of hostages have become more vocal about the need to free their relatives through diplomacy and not violence. Some hostages taken to Gaza have since been declared dead – and it is not yet clear whether they were killed accidentally by Israeli forces or by Hamas.

Of the more than a hundred hostages freed since the start of the invasion, only one was released during a rescue operation. The others were all exchanged for Palestinian prisoners and detainees during a brief ceasefire in November.

By focusing its efforts on destroying the tunnels, the military risks making mistakes that could cost the lives of more Israeli civilians. Three Israeli hostages were killed by their own soldiers in December, despite waving a white flag and shouting in Hebrew.

“It's actually a stalemate,” said Andreas Krieg, a war expert at King's College London. “It's not an environment where you can free hostages,” he added.

“If you go into the tunnels and try to free them with special forces or whatever, you will kill them,” said Dr. Krieg. “You kill them directly – or indirectly, in booby traps or in a firefight.”

Many tunnels have been destroyed, but leaving the remaining tunnels intact will effectively leave Hamas undefeated, reducing the likelihood that the group would release hostages under any circumstances short of a complete ceasefire.

The remaining alternative is a diplomatic settlement that could include the release of the hostages in exchange for thousands of Palestinians being jailed by Israel, along with a cessation of hostilities.

According to three of the commanders interviewed by The Times, the diplomatic route would be the fastest way to return the Israelis still in captivity.

For some on Israel's right, the war's limited progress is the result of the administration's recent decision, after pressure from the United States and other allies, to slow the pace of the invasion.

But military leaders say their campaign has been hampered by a Hamas infrastructure that was more advanced than Israeli intelligence officers previously estimated.

Before the invasion, officials believed the tunnel network under Gaza was as long as 100 miles; The leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, did claimed in 2021 it was closer to 300 miles.

Military officials now believe there are as many as 450 miles of tunnels beneath an area that is only 25 miles long at its longest point. Under Khan Younis alone, Israel estimates that there are at least 100 miles of passageways spread across different levels. And across Gaza, an estimated 5,700 shafts feed into the network, making it so difficult to disconnect the network from the Earth's surface that the military has stopped destroying every shaft it comes across.

Locating and excavating each tunnel is time-consuming and dangerous. Many are equipped with booby traps, according to the Israeli army.

Once inside, a highly trained Israeli commando loses most of its military advantage above the ground. The tunnels are narrow, often only wide enough to pass through in a single file. That means all battles within them are reduced to one-on-one close quarters combat.

On the eve of the Israeli invasion, the army assessed that it would have “operational control” of Gaza City, Khan Younis and Rafah – Gaza's three largest cities – by the end of December, according to a military planning document reviewed by The New York Times .

But by mid-January, Israel had yet to begin its advance on Rafah, Gaza's southernmost city, and had still not driven Hamas out of all parts of Khan Younis, another major city in the south.

After the army appeared to have gained control of northern Gaza late last year, it said the war had entered a new, less intense phase. Generals have withdrawn about half of the 50,000 troops stationed in northern Gaza at the height of the campaign in December, with more departures expected by the end of January.

That created a power vacuum in the north, allowing Hamas fighters and civilian officials to try to reassert their authority there, alarming many Israelis who hoped Hamas had been completely vanquished in the area.

On Tuesday, Hamas militants in northern Gaza fired a barrage of about 25 rockets into Israeli airspace, angering Israelis who had hoped that after months of war, Hamas' rocket-launching capabilities had been destroyed.

In recent days, police and welfare officials from the Hamas-led government have emerged from their hideouts in Gaza City and Beit Hanoun, two northern cities, and have tried to maintain daily order and restore some welfare services, a senior Israeli official said. official who spoke anonymously to discuss a sensitive issue.

And Hamas' top leaders in Gaza – including Mr Sinwar, Mohammad Deif and Marwan Issa – remain at large.

Some Israeli politicians say Israel could more quickly defeat Hamas and rescue the hostages by using more force. They say more aggression could also force Hamas to release more hostages without a permanent ceasefire.

“We should apply a lot more pressure,” said Danny Danon, a senior lawmaker from Netanyahu's ruling party, Likud. “We made a mistake when we changed the way we worked.”

But military analysts say more violence will achieve little.

“It is a war that cannot be won,” said Dr. Krieg.

“When you're in an unwinnable war, you usually realize it at some point – and you withdraw,” he added. “And they didn't.”

Mr Netanyahu says it is still possible to achieve all of Israel's goals and has rejected the idea of ​​stopping the war.

“Stopping the war before the goals are achieved will send a message of weakness,” he said in his speech on Thursday.

Rawan Sheikh Ahmad and Johnatan Reiss contributed reporting.