After Indian Wells and Miami, Intrigue awaits the Top of Tennis

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. It doesn’t take a code-cracking expert to understand the pattern that has emerged in pro tennis over the past month as tours descended on the United States for the winter-spring swing in California and Florida.

For four weeks, and two of the major tournaments other than the Grand Slam events, a small group at the top of the sport got a little busier, especially as some members were injured (Iga Swiatek, Rafael Nadal) or sidelined as the United States still prohibit entry to foreigners who have not been vaccinated against Covid-19 (Novak Djokovic).

Carlos Alcaraz, the 19-year-old Spanish prodigy who was fast becoming the biggest draw in the sport, was already in the group. But once again make way for Daniil Medvedev. Medvedev, a magically headstrong Russian who fell from the top last year, won the Miami Open for the first time on Sunday, beating Jannik Sinner 7-5, 6-3 after making it to the final in Indian Wells two weeks ago.

Elena Rybakina is now officially here too. She is a fluent and powerful Kazakh who almost won the so-called Sunshine Double, losing to Czech veteran Petra Kvitova in the Miami final after winning in Indian Wells on Saturday.

Then there’s Sinner, the lithe Italian who lost to Medvedev on Sunday and made it to the semi-finals in Indian Wells, cementing his position as the most reliable contemporary rival for an otherwise almost unstoppable Alcaraz. Sinner matched Alcaraz bang for bang, beating him in their semifinal on Friday night to tie their head-to-head record at 3-3. By the way, Rybakina has managed to pull off the same trick with Swiatek, becoming her Kryptonite in a way no one else has done recently.

“The best start to the season I’ve ever had,” said Medvedev, who has won 24 of his last 25 matches and four of his last five tournaments since losing in the third round of the Australian Open in January.

Trophies and big checks are handed out every March and April in Indian Wells and Miami, but this time the top of the sport’s tectonic plates shifted just enough to create new intrigue as tennis moves to Europe for clay-court season and then tennis season. grass.

Nadal, the so-called King of Clay, winner of 14 French Open titles, posted a photo of himself on Instagram stretching for a shot in practice last week an unsubtle hint that he intends to be ready. The prognosis is good for Swiatek, who was unbeaten on clay last spring. Djokovic has endured layoffs for not being vaccinated earlier and has come back stronger. No one doubts that he will not do the same this time.

Those three may be about to strike, but they also know the ever-evolving challenges that await them. Although he left one round before the finals here in Florida, Alcaraz, with his stunning display of shotmaking, left another string of casualties, cementing his status as the most disruptive force in the game.

Taylor Fritz, the best American, enjoyed the chance to meet Alcaraz for the first time in the quarterfinals here on Thursday. He came away from the beating, wondering what had hit him. Fritz came out with a pounding 110-mile-per-hour second serve that turned the Spaniard into clean winners. Fritz crushed backhands across the field that Alcaraz hit back with impossible backhands down the line. He said Alcaraz produced a degree of suffocation that he had not experienced the first time he played against Djokovic, Nadal or Roger Federer.

“I definitely felt like I had more breathing room against those guys than I did in this game,” said Fritz.

Medvedev, safe from Alcaraz on the other side of the draw, watched on television – Medvedev watches a lot of televised tennis if he stays alive in a tournament – and saw Alcaraz hit forehands with blazing speed. He shook his head.

“People say, why can’t other people play against Carlos?” said Medvedev. “Well, I can’t hit a 110-mile forehand. Yes, that is an advantage.”

But Medvedev, who lost to Alcaraz in the men’s singles final at Indian Wells and is almost as much an expert as he is a player, came up with a counterintuitive analysis. Conventional wisdom would suggest that beating Alcaraz would be a fool’s errand, because that’s how Alcaraz prefers to play.

However, Medvedev said this is most likely why Sinner has had more success than anyone else against Alcaraz. Alcaraz is more consistent and boasts crisp volleys, the most deceptive drop shots and relentless defense. But, said Medvedev: “Jannik can hit the ball very strongly. I think they have this kind of ping pong tennis there. That’s where he can cause him trouble.

And then Sinner did, coming back from a set down against Alcaraz, giving him leg cramps in yet another of their highlights on the rolls.

“You have to go for shots you don’t normally go for” to Alcaraz, Sinner said.

Medvedev, who has now won all of their matches, presented another challenge to Sinner, who said he woke up to a bad weather. Medvedev is a human board, whose flat power didn’t get into Sinner’s strike zone like Alcaraz’s powerful topspin did on this slippery hard court that matched Medvedev’s play almost perfectly.

Medvedev rocked Sinner early on in long rallies. Sinner switched to a more aggressive course, which helped. But he felt less than 100 percent and with a three-hour battle with Alcaraz still in his legs, he sank into the 86-degree heat, unable to find the next gear he needed to finish his first Masters. 1000 title win.

“I’m getting closer and closer,” Sinner said of his lopsided record to Medvedev. “Every player has a player or two they’re not comfortable with.”

Another pattern worth noting: It is said that an unkempt Medvedev is the best Medvedev. When he showed up to play clean-shaven with his hair almost groomed, like he just came out of a fashion shoot for Lacoste, his game was level. But when he enters court with a tousled beard, his hair flying in four directions and his shirt a size or two too big, his inner artist and assassin seems to be fully realized.

It’s no surprise, then, that Medvedev has been pretty neglected over the past month. He’s also been working with a new mental coach, though he won’t reveal the name, after a year without one that didn’t go well.

“I always try to give my best, always try to work hard,” said Medvedev. “You never know when it’s going to pay off.”

Even after losing in Saturday’s final to snap a 13-game winning streak, Rybakina enters the clay-court season as a force that grows more terrifying each month. She won her first Grand Slam singles title at Wimbledon last year, but her ranking remained artificially low because after Wimbledon banned Russians and Belarusians from participating, the tours withheld ranking points from the event. She spent all summer and autumn trying to make up for that, but arrived in Australia rested. She reached the final, where she lost to Aryna Sabalenka in three tight sets.

She’s barely let go since then, using her powerful serve and rolling backhand to overwhelm her opponents. She finally ran out of gas on Saturday after a mesmerizing tiebreak in the first set. Kvitova, who won her ninth Masters 1000 title, saved six set points before winning, 7-6 (14), 6-2.

“Happy with the run and super proud of myself,” said Rybakina when it was over.

And what about Kvitova? She is 33 and a two-time Wimbledon champion who has just won her first Masters 1000 title since 2018, not to mention the 2016 attack at her home that left her dominant left hand bloodied and with torn ligaments. Even Kvitova couldn’t answer that as she sat next to the glass trophy early on Saturday night.

“I have no idea what this will do,” she said. “The clay waits and then the grass. The tennis world is just very fast, and I can’t really keep looking at this trophy.”

Neither Medvedev nor any of the others who excelled in the past month. Novak and Rafa and Iga are waiting.