With the fate of Ukraine's top general in doubt, all eyes are on Zelensky
He deftly defended his country in Europe's biggest ground war in decades, halting Russia's invasion and then pushing it back with everything he had at hand: natural barriers like rivers, outdated weapons and deadly drones, deception and elements of surprise.
But the fate of Ukraine's top commander, General Valery Zaluzhny, now appears to hang in the balance – not over his position in the military, where he is highly regarded, but over tensions with Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
The president's frustrations have grown since it became clear in the fall that Ukraine's southern counteroffensive, an attack that began with Expectations for Ukraine and its allies are high, has failed. Since then, the fighting has degenerated into bloody, static trench warfare.
Should Mr. Zelensky fire the general, it could create a host of problems for him both in the war and at home. While Mr. Zelensky embodies his country's resistance to Russian aggression to many of his supporters abroad, the general is widely hailed as a hero in Ukraine.
His portrait hangs in coffee shops and bars. He is the subject of countless patriotic memes online. Public opinion polls in the fall showed his popularity surpassing Zelensky's — a reason, analysts and opposition politicians say, for the increasingly tense relationship between the men, although the general has never expressed political ambitions.
Military analysts have credited the general with preparing the army in the weeks and days before the invasion, even as Zelensky's government publicly downplayed the chances of a Russian attack. General Zaluzhny oversaw not only the defense of the capital Kiev, but also the campaigns that thwarted the initial invasion and reconquered hundreds of square kilometers.
Beyond their differences, Mr. Zelensky would lose the military advice of an experienced commander if he fired the general. The United States and other allies would have to adjust to working with new military leaders, and a resignation could fuel concerns about instability of Ukraine's wartime leadership.
And on the battlefield, Ukraine finds itself in a precarious position, facing intensified Russian attacks in the southeast and uncertainty over whether the United States and Europe will provide more military and financial support. In the event of a shake-up, it is not clear that a new top commander could quickly win the admiration that many officers and soldiers have for General Zaluzhny. Lower-ranking officers would also likely be shuffled, disrupting military plans, at least temporarily.
Yet tensions over military progress between the president and the general have been simmering behind the scenes for more than a year, sometimes expressing themselves publicly. Tensions reached a fever pitch on Monday, according to reports in the Ukrainian news media that Mr Zelensky had dismissed or planned to dismiss General Zaluzhny.
Mr. Zelenskiy's spokesman, Serhiy Nikiforov, denied that any shots had been fired at the time. There have been no dismissals, he said.
But a lawmaker said that Mr. Zelensky had asked for the general's resignation at a meeting on Monday evening, and the general had refused. And a senior military officer who has worked at the General Staff Headquarters said the president's office is still considering a resignation.
More broadly, speculation continued in Ukraine about the frosty relations between the two main men overseeing Ukraine's war effort.
“In peace and war, there are always tensions in civil-military relations,” wrote Mick Ryan, a retired major general of the Australian Army and fellow at the Lowy Institute, a research group. an analysis of the situation.
“One thing above all must be remembered,” Mr. Ryan wrote. “In democracies, civil-military relations are an unequal dialogue. The civilian leader always has priority.”
General Zaluzhny, who was appointed commander of the army general staff by Mr Zelensky in 2021, won praise from Ukrainians for his leadership in the first year of the war. Before Russia invaded in February 2022, he ordered jets to reserve airfields and move troops out of barracks so he could escape Russian bombs once the attack began.
Commanding from a bunker in Kiev, General Zaluzhny pursued a strategy that drew the more powerful Russian army deep into Ukrainian territory, weakening supply lines, which he then attacked with sabotage groups and artillery. Ukrainian engineers blew up hundreds of bridges and dams, leaving Russians stranded on roads that ended at muddy riverbanks or next to newly formed lakes.
And in counterattacks, General Zaluzhny focused on attacking supply lines in the southern Kherson region, telegraphing for months a major effort to liberate the region. He also prepared a surprise attack in the northeast, quickly recapturing hundreds of square kilometers.
The movement came to a standstill after the Kherson campaign, which ended in November 2022. The front line barely moved after two failed Russian attacks, and tensions between the general and the president began to surface after Ukraine's failed counteroffensive last summer.
Mr Zelensky's frustration manifested itself in November, after General Zaluzhny published it an essay in The Economist says the war was at a 'stalemate'. The Ukrainian president suggested the comment was helpful to Russia, a striking rebuke.
Around the same time the president's office replaced one of General Zaluzhny's deputies, the head of the special operations forces, without explanation. It also fired the head of Ukraine's medical forces.