A new generation of abortion voters

When the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, it sent shockwaves that reverberated through American politics, helping Democrats avoid a Republican defeat in the midterm elections.

But there were always questions about whether the issue would continue with the same intensity. Would abortion rights continue to motivate Democrats in the 2024 elections? Or would the issue follow the path of “parental rights” for Republicans — a seemingly powerful rallying cry that quickly faded?

New poll from KFF, a nonprofit organization focused on health policy, is sending an early signal. It suggests that the Supreme Court’s ruling has fundamentally reordered American politics in a way that may be more lasting than Republicans would like.

‘The most important issue’

The KFF poll, conducted in late February, shows that the end of Roe has created a new class of energized abortion rights voters.

About 12 percent of participants said abortion would be the “most important issue” for their vote in the 2024 election. That includes 28 percent of black women, 22 percent of Democrats, 19 percent of women in states that ban abortion and 17 percent of women are of childbearing age (18-49 years). Among voters who said abortion was the most important issue, two-thirds said it should be legal in all or most circumstances.

That’s a big change. For decades, Americans who opposed abortion were far more likely describe themselves as single-issue voters. Even during the last presidential election in 2020, a larger share of voters who called themselves “pro-life” were more likely to say the issue was important to their vote than those who called themselves “pro-choice.”

Now those numbers have almost reversed, with political enthusiasm shifting to the pro-abortion rights side of the debate.

Republicans also have abortion voters

The poll showed that Republican voters are divided on abortion. About four-in-ten say they believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases and 43 percent support securing a federal right to abortion.

But the majority of Republicans still view abortion very differently than much of the mainstream public on the issue.

Eight in 10 Republicans view abortion as a “moral issue,” while 96 percent of Democrats and 84 percent of independents see it as one of “individual rights and freedoms.”

A clear majority of respondents (58 percent) do not support a national ban of 16 weeks, but most Republicans (61 percent) do support it.

Half of Republicans support a federal ban on abortion pills, compared to just a quarter of independents and Democrats.

These conservative views illustrate why Republican politicians have struggled to unite around an abortion message that works for both their base and the independent voters they need to win in battleground states.

A drumbeat full of news

In his opinion, Justice Samuel Alito argued that Roe had “sparked debate and deepened divisions.” But the Supreme Court’s decision plunged the country into a much more contentious national conversation. And a steady pace of news developments has increased the political resonance of abortion in the minds of many voters.

A ruling by the Alabama Supreme Court last month prompted several fertility clinics in the state to suspend IVF treatments. That sparked a national outcry — and a new set of tough questions for Republican lawmakers.

Such cases have heightened fears among some voters that other reproductive rights could be restricted. Less than half of Americans – 45 percent – ​​said they consider the right to use contraception to be “safe,” the KFF poll found. About four in 10 voters say this year’s election will have a “major impact” on access to contraception.

Later this month, the Supreme Court will hear arguments in a case challenging the availability of a widely used abortion pill. The case — and the outpouring of news coverage that is sure to follow — will once again remind voters that abortion rights will be on the ballot in November.

Trump is considering a TikTok ban

Republican leaders in the House of Representatives are moving forward with legislation that would force TikTok’s Chinese owners to sell the social media app or risk being denied entry into the United States — despite opposition from former President Donald Trump .

Trump, who promised to ban TikTok while in office, has changed course and vocally opposes the bill, a move that will test his ability to continue to undermine bipartisan legislation in Congress off the campaign trail.

Earlier today, Trump offered a rambling explanation for his reversal, saying he didn’t want to alienate young voters or empower Facebook, which he views as a mortal enemy.

In an interview on CNBC, Trump said he still considers TikTok a threat to national security, but that banning it would drive young people “crazy.”

“Honestly, there are a lot of people on TikTok who love it,” Trump said. “There are a lot of young kids on TikTok who will go crazy without it.”

“There’s a lot of good and a lot of bad with TikTok,” he added, “but what I don’t like is that without TikTok you can make Facebook bigger, and I consider Facebook an enemy of the people. , along with much of the media.”

—Annie Karni And Jonathan Swan

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