Netanyahu’s coalition ‘may be in danger’, intelligence report says

A new US intelligence report released on Monday cast doubt on whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel could remain in power, as the CIA director said a hostage deal was the most practical way to end the war in Gaza, at least temporarily, to stop.

The annual threat assessment for 2024 expressed concern about Israel’s view on the end of the war and said Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition “may be in danger.”

“Public distrust in Netanyahu’s ability to govern has deepened and widened from already high levels before the war, and we expect major protests demanding his resignation and new elections,” the report said. “Another, more moderate government is a possibility.”

The report predicted that Israel would struggle to achieve its goal of “destroying Hamas.”

“Israel will likely face continued armed resistance from Hamas for years to come, and the military will struggle to neutralize Hamas’s underground infrastructure, which allows insurgents to hide, gain strength and surprise Israeli forces,” he said. the report.

Tensions between President Biden and Mr Netanyahu have flared in recent days over Israel’s planned military operations in Rafah in southern Gaza. But the intelligence report, months in the making, was written before the most recent tensions.

The annual report is usually accompanied by two days of hearings before the Senate and House Intelligence Committees. Intelligence officials were not asked Monday about the Netanyahu government’s assessment in testimony before the Senate panel. Instead, questions about Israel and Gaza focused on the hostage negotiations.

William J. Burns, the director of the CIA, returned Saturday from his eighth trip abroad to negotiate the release of hostages. U.S. officials had hoped to reach an agreement before the start of Ramadan, but that deadline passed.

Mr Burns said he was focused on pursuing a first phase deal to pause fighting in Gaza for six weeks to allow more humanitarian aid to flow into the area and secure the release of 40 hostages. That group – the remaining women, elderly men and injured or sick people – would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

Mr. Burns did not indicate how many Palestinians would be released, but others briefed on the talks said hundreds of low-level prisoners and 15 people convicted of serious crimes would be released.

But Mr Burns said the only way to help Gazans suffering in “desperate conditions”, and to provide aid to Israeli hostages and their families, is to take a first step towards something that will become a reality over time. could become a ‘more sustainable arrangement’.

“I learned long ago in crises like this that you have to find a practical goal and pursue it relentlessly,” Mr. Burns said.

“I don’t think anyone can guarantee success,” he said. “But I think you can guarantee that the alternatives are worse for innocent civilians in Gaza who are suffering in desperate conditions, for the hostages and their families who are also suffering in very desperate conditions, and for all of us.”

Protesters interrupted the hearing several times, calling on Israel to stop bombing Gaza and shouting that the war was “exterminating the Palestinian people.” Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, asked Mr. Burns if he agreed with the protesters.

Mr. Burns said he understood Israel’s need to respond to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, but that “we must all also be aware of the enormous toll this has taken on innocent civilians in Gaza.”

“As the president has said, it is very important that Israel is extremely aware of this and avoids further loss of civilian lives,” he said.

Mr. Burns testified along with Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, and other intelligence leaders, including Christopher A. Wray, the director of the FBI.

Mr. Wray said the United States faces increased terrorism threats from homegrown extremists, foreign organizations and others.

“Since October 7, however, that threat has gone to a whole different level,” he said. “And so it is time for much greater vigilance.”

In the annual report, the intelligence services concluded that “Israel will face increasing international pressure over the dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip.”

The war in Gaza poses a “challenge” to America’s Arab partners because of growing public sentiment against both Israel and the United States caused by “the death and destruction in Gaza.” Those countries see the United States as the power broker that can end the conflict before it spreads.

The report says what many U.S. officials have said in recent months: that Iran did not orchestrate or have prior knowledge of the Oct. 7 attacks.

Both Iran and Israel are trying to coordinate their actions and avoid direct conflict, the report said. But intelligence officials say they believe Iran will continue to arm and aid proxy forces that threaten the United States even after the Gaza war is over.