Belarusian President Lukashenko may be the biggest winner of the uprising

Questions remain about the deal that Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, the authoritarian Belarusian leader, allegedly brokered between President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner paramilitary group, to get Wagner’s armed revolt in Russia. to an end.

As part of the deal, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov said Saturday, the criminal case against Mr. Prigozhin for organizing an armed uprising will be dropped, Wagner forces will not be charged, and Mr. Prigozhin left Russia for Belarus. But what, if any, promises were made on behalf of the Kremlin, Wagner or Mr. Lukashenko remains unclear.

There is only one thing that observers say with great certainty: Mr. Lukashenko appears to be the biggest winner of Mr. Prigozhin’s mutinous campaign.

“Putin lost because he showed how weak his system is, how easily he can be challenged,” said Pavel Slunkin, a former Belarusian diplomat and analyst with the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Prigozhin challenged, he attacked, he was so brutal and then retreated, looking like a loser. Only Lukashenko won points – first in the eyes of Putin, in the eyes of the international community as a mediator or negotiator and as a possible guarantor of the deal.”

Since Moscow helped violently crush a democratic movement in Belarus in 2020, Mr. Lukashenko has increasingly allowed Belarus to become a vassal state of Russia. Dependent on Moscow for political and economic support, Minsk allowed Putin to use Belarus as a staging post for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022, and more recently as a repository for Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

During Wagner’s brief revolt, Mr. Lukashenko tried to portray himself as a mediator and successful statesman. Belarusian state media reported that Mr. Lukashenko received a call Friday morning from Mr. Putin – a subtle detail that revealed that the more powerful leader Mr. Lukashenko for help – and then held meetings with his political and military top.

According to Belta, Belarusian state news agency Mr. Lukashenko, with Mr. Putin’s knowledge, spoke to Mr. Prigozhin by phone and “negotiations continued throughout the day”.

The conversation between Mr Lukashenko and Mr Prigozhin was “very difficult,” Vadim Gigin, a Belarusian pro-regime analyst, told Solovyov Live, an internet channel that supports the Kremlin. “They immediately blurted out such vulgar things that any mother would cry,” he said. “The conversation was difficult, and as I was told, manly.”

Once Mr Prigozhin announced that his troops would be stepping down, Belta reported that Mr Putin “supported and thanked the Belarusian colleague for his work”.

Dmitri Avosha, the founder of Tribuna, a Belarusian website, said Dmitri Avosha, the founder of the Belarusian website Tribuna.

“Lukashenko was just doing Putin a favor in its purest form, helping himself,” he said.

But even with Mr Lukashenko’s role in the deal potentially strengthening his international position, many observers have questioned whether Mr Prigozhin will be safe if he honors his side of the bargain and moves to Belarus.

Russian special forces are known to enter Belarusian territory to pursue “enemies”, Mr Slunkin said.

“And now,” he added, “they’ll just do whatever they want.”