At the DealBook Summit, leaders face an ‘existential moment’

This article is part of our special section on the DealBook Summit that brought together business and policy leaders from around the world.

“There are always tough things going on, wars, depressions and recessions,” Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, told me. But this time, he said, things could be different, maybe even worse.

“It’s dangerous,” he said, putting aside his rock-solid self-confidence at last week’s DealBook Summit in New York.

Business, policy and cultural leaders have always faced uncertainty, a watchword that has become almost a cliché.

Today, however, it seems that uncertainty is not fair an excuse for less than expected results. It’s a palpable feeling that seems to influence virtually every major figure at the top of the leadership complex around the world. Leaders are taught to always demonstrate optimism and confidence, but in this moment they feel a vulnerability that is often foreign to them.

That was the lesson that emerged from interviews with some of the world’s most influential leaders in their fields.

Vice President Kamala Harris spoke with great enthusiasm about the danger of democracy; Elon Musk of Disney CEO Bob Iger discussed how the film industry could be disrupted forever; Nvidia founder Jensen Huang spoke at length about the AI ​​revolution that will impact every corner of the computing world – and society.

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen expressed fears that China is trying to manipulate the country’s elections; and Israel’s President Isaac Herzog discussed how Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack and the war that followed have upended the Middle East, broader geopolitics, and discourse around the world.

It’s difficult to know how to measure the current level of uncertainty and disruption – or how to respond to it. But it’s clear here. Some leaders persevere and hope for the best, some plan for the worst, and others try to remain optimistic. If history teaches one lesson, it is that those who keep their heads down during these periods are the most successful.

“My view is that if you have this kind of risk, you better take it very seriously because the chances of something going wrong are high,” Mr Dimon said. “And if things go wrong, the costs are enormous.”

Uncertainty could be even greater in China, which was just downgraded by Moody’s this week. President Tsai of Taiwan suggested in her first major interview with a Western news organization in years that “China’s leaders are overwhelmed right now” and “my thought is that this may not be the time to consider a major invasion.” of Taiwan.”

Still, she admitted that “China is of course worried and interfering in the elections in Taiwan” and “they are indeed trying to influence the elections in their favor.” She added that China does this through “the use of military threats and economic coercion.”

War and the prospect of war are one kind of uncertainty. But it often feels like the industry is going through its own struggles, with an intensity far greater than in the past.

“The disruption of this business right now is harder and faster than we ever imagined,” said David Zaslav, CEO of Warner Bros. Discovery. “We had to make a lot of tough decisions, and we had to move much faster than we probably wanted to, because this is a generational disruption.”

Mr. Zaslav, commenting on his decision to lay off staff and lay off productions, said the situation took him by surprise a year after the merger of the two media companies.

“By the end of the first year we really thought we were getting close to shore and we were going to get there,” he said. “But this disruption, this idea that people consuming content on TikTok are moving to different streaming services, is a generational disruption.” And then he raised the prospect that artificial intelligence will once again rewrite the business models of his and many other companies. “It’s an existential moment. What is the impact of AI?”

Mr. Iger suggested that Disney was facing many of the same challenges. “I think the movie business is changing,” he said. “Actually, the box office today is about 75 percent of what it was before Covid. I think we’ve conditioned audiences to expect that these films will hit streaming platforms relatively quickly and that the experience of watching and watching them at home will be better than ever before.

In other words, the Hollywood studios have disrupted themselves.

And dozens of other industries are about to be rocked by a computer technology remake.

“Every aspect of computing has fundamentally changed,” Mr. Huang said. “Everything from networking to switching and the way the computers are designed down to the chips. And so all the software on top of it and the methodology that brings it all together is a big deal because it’s a complete reinvention of the computer industry.”

That will inevitably create opportunities and a new group of winners, but also losers. And as business becomes more digital and consolidates, it is increasingly becoming a winner-take-all economy.

But despite all the hand-wringing, Mr. Musk made us think about the future in new ways.

“If we’re a one-planet civilization, we’re just waiting for some extinction events to happen,” he said. “If you have a multi-planet civilization, you will live much longer,” he said, adding that it would also serve as a springboard “to being among the stars.”

This is not just a defensive motivation, Mr. Musk continued, but it is also a motivation that gives meaning to our lives – especially at a time when uncertainty can often feel like desperation.

“You know, there must be reasons why you wake up in the morning and are happy to be alive. You should say why you are excited about the future or what gives you hope? And if you’re not sure, ask your kids.

“I think the idea that we are a space-faring civilization and out there among the stars is incredibly inspiring and exciting and something to look forward to. And there must be such things in the world.”