A loss to Erdogan in Turkey would cause relief in the West and fear in Moscow
Sunday’s presidential election in Turkey is being closely watched in Western capitals, NATO headquarters and the Kremlin, with Turkey’s long-standing mediating role in the complex and often troublesome relations between the parties depending on the outcome.
With President Recep Tayyip Erdogan trailing his challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in recent polls, the prospect that the Turkish leader could lose the election concentrates diplomatic minds.
Officially, people on the Western side are not allowed to talk about their preferences to avoid being accused of interfering in Turkey’s domestic politics. But it is an open secret that European leaders, not to mention the Biden administration, would be delighted if Erdogan lost.
As Carl Bildt, the former Swedish prime minister, said on Friday: “We all want an easier Turkey,” a strategically important member of NATO that under Erdogan has become an increasingly difficult partner for the European Union, which has largely abandoned the idea of Turkish sailing membership.
Russia also has a lot of influence on the outcome of the elections. Under Mr Erdogan, Turkey has become Russia’s indispensable trading partner and, at times, a diplomatic intermediary, a relationship that has become even more important to the Kremlin since the invasion of Ukraine.
Throughout his 20 years in power, Erdogan has pursued a non-aligned foreign policy that has often frustrated his alleged Western allies and provided a welcome diplomatic opening for Moscow — perhaps never more so than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
By refusing to impose Western sanctions on Moscow, Erdogan has helped undermine efforts to isolate the Kremlin and deprive it of the money to secure the war. At the same time, Turkey’s faltering economy has recently been feeding on heavily discounted Russian oil, helping Erdogan in his quest for a third five-year term.
Mr Erdogan has further angered his allies by blocking Sweden’s bid for membership of NATO and insisting that Stockholm first hand over dozens of Kurdish refugees into the country, especially from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which has identified both Ankara and Washington as a terrorist considering the organization.
More generally, there is a strong feeling for the European Union and Washington that Turkey under Erdogan has moved further away from European values and norms such as the rule of law and freedom of the press.
Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas said in an interview that NATO and the European Union viewed the election differently. It is a defense alliance, she said, and “Turkey is one of the allies with great military capabilities” to help NATO in an important part of the world. “So I don’t think anything changes in terms of NATO in this regard, whoever wins the election.”
For NATO, of course, the hope is that a change of leadership in Turkey will end the stalemate over approval of Sweden’s membership in the military alliance, ideally before a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July.
In Washington, Mr. Erdogan’s drift toward authoritarianism, his ties to Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin and his disputes with NATO officials have irked — and even led some members of Congress to suggest that Turkey should be banned from the NATO alliance .
While the United States, the European Union and, to a lesser extent, NATO benefit from an opposition victory, Mr Putin will almost certainly be seen as the loser if Mr Erdogan is ousted.
Not only has Erdogan refused to join Western sanctions against Russia and provide a market for its oil and gas, Turkey has also become a source for Moscow of much-needed imports and a vital link to the global economy amid tightening restrictions. western sanctions. The Kremlin also sees in Erdogan’s often confrontational nationalist rhetoric the potential to disrupt the NATO alliance.
Turkey, for its part, has benefited not only from cheap Russian energy, but also from Russian investments and income from Russian tourism, which have risen since the beginning of the war. Russia is building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant and has announced plans since the start of the war to make the country a hub for its natural gas trade.
The two long-serving leaders also share an authoritarian streak and confrontational rhetoric towards the West, emphasizing historical grievances against other world powers. Mr Erdogan’s relationship with Mr Putin has allowed him to play the role of statesman as a mediator for Moscow’s war against Ukraine, most recently brokering a deal to allow the export of Ukrainian grain.
But Mr Putin and Mr Erdogan’s partnership has always been based on mutual self-interest rather than ideological affinity, with the two countries competing for influence in the Caucasus and the Middle East. Notably, the two leaders support different factions in the armed conflicts in Syria and Libya. Relations became strained after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet in 2015.
Mr Erdogan has stopped offering direct support to Mr Putin in the war in Ukraine, and his government has angered Moscow by allowing the sale of Turkish armed drones to Kiev.
In another disturbing sign for the Kremlin, Mr Kilicdaroglu, the opposition leader, last week accused Russia of interfering in the country’s elections by spreading “conspiracies, deep falsifications and ties exposed yesterday in this country”.
That was a reference to an alleged sex tape that surfaced Thursday, forcing an underage presidential candidate to drop out of the race.
“Get your hands off the Turkish state,” he wrote in Turkish and Russian, though he added, “We still advocate cooperation and friendship.”
Mr Kilicdaroglu has promised to maintain economic ties with Russia if he wins the presidency, but it remains unclear whether he will continue Mr Erdogan’s delicate balancing act in Ukraine.
As an indication of the sensitivity of the situation, when US Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake met Mr Kilicdaroglu last month, he angered Mr Erdogan. The Turkish president said he would no longer meet with Mr Flake, adding: “We must teach the United States a lesson in this election,” Turkish news media reported.
While silently supporting Erdogan’s defeat, Europe’s leaders are increasingly concerned about the possibility of post-election unrest, especially if Erdogan loses narrowly or if the elections go to a second round in two weeks.
“It’s a turning point in the election,” Bildt said. “But democracy is at stake. And my second concern is that we get a result” that means a division of powers – a powerful presidency under Mr Erdogan and a Turkish parliament controlled by an unstable opposition coalition.
“The risk of a constitutional stalemate is quite high,” Bildt said.
Michael Crowley contributed report from Washington.