Conservatives poised to lead Finland in coalition with hard right

Finland’s main conservative party announced a new coalition government on Friday after weeks of negotiations, in a deal that moves the country firmly to the right and follows a pattern of similar political shifts elsewhere in Europe.

Petteri Orpo, leader of the centre-right National Coalition Party, would become prime minister under the coalition, which also includes the right-wing nationalist Finns Party.

“Finland needs change,” Orpo said at a press conference on Friday. “Our prosperity is at stake.”

Assuming the coalition is approved when lawmakers likely vote on the prime minister in parliament next week, it will see the more liberal Social Democratic party led by former prime minister Sanna Marin, who became a political rock star while in office, in the leave opposition. The new government is expected to usher in an era of financial tightness and stricter immigration policies.

Despite popular support for Ms Marin’s handling of issues such as the war in Ukraine and Finland’s entry into NATO, April’s elections hinged largely on economic concerns such as high inflation and rising national debt. Right-wing parties made gains by focusing on concerns about the country’s financial situation and calling previous migration policies too lenient. They also criticized the high spending on the social security system.

The National Coalition Party, led by Mr Orpo, promoted a conservative economic agenda, including cuts to some housing benefits and unemployment benefits, and claimed a narrow victory, taking 20.8 percent of the vote. The Finns Party came in second with 20.0 percent and campaigned for pledges to curb immigration, reduce financial contributions to the European Union and delay action on climate change. The Social Democrats came third with 19.9 percent, underlining the closeness of the vote.

Other European countries have moved to the right in recent years, including Italy, which is governed by a coalition led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, leader of a party with post-fascist roots; Sweden, which swapped a center-left government for a right-wing bloc in September; and Spain, which will hold early national elections next month after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Workers’ Party was defeated in regional and local elections.

After no party achieved a majority in parliament, National Coalition Party leaders began efforts to form a government in talks that would last for weeks. Mr Orpo said the negotiations were taking so long because the potential coalition partners were trying to decide where to make heavy cuts and how to increase revenues. Orpo eventually struck a deal with the Finns, but also with two other smaller parties, each receiving about four percent of the vote.

One of these is the Swedish People’s Party, which aims to represent Finland’s Swedish-speaking minority. The party, which is centrist, pro-European and socially liberal, was also part of Ms Marin’s government.

The other party in the coalition is the Christian Democrats, a centre-right group.

On Thursday, representatives of the parties gave a joint press conference to announce they had agreed on a government programme.

“We managed to reach an agreement under great pressure,” said Mr Orpo. “What unites us is that we want to improve Finland.”

What will the coalition change?

The new coalition plans to reduce debt levels through measures such as cutting subsidies, the program said.

Direct cuts in government spending would amount to 4 billion euros or 4.37 billion dollars, Orpo said at Friday’s press conference.

“This is not easy,” he added. “We have to cut back where it feels bad.”

The coalition also pledged to halve the number of refugees Finland takes in each year from about 1,000 to 500, and to take a generally tougher stance on immigration.

The coalition also pledged to keep Finland’s military spending in line with NATO’s target of at least 2 percent of gross domestic product and to promote alliance membership for both Sweden and Ukraine.

There are still some formal steps to be taken before the new government is installed, but Jenni Karimaki, a political scientist at the University of Helsinki, said that with the details already settled by the parties in the coalition, they cannot make any last-minute changes. .

Mr Orpo, 53, has served as finance minister and deputy prime minister in previous governments and has held several other ministerial positions. He is now about to take on the top job.

Orpo’s style is known as a compromise maker and negotiator and for his austere approach to public finances. It contrasts with that of its predecessor.

“Finland’s prosperity cannot be based on debt,” he said on Friday.

Ms. Marin, 37, gained a global profile for her defense of Ukraine and also for her off-duty activities after she was caught on private videos partying with her friends, sparking some debate within Finland about the appropriateness of her behaviour.