More Modi, Less Hindu Nationalism: Reading Tea Leaves in India Voices
With how often and how fiercely Narendra Modi injects himself into elections, you would think that every race – right down to the vote for municipal bodies in what will soon be the world’s most populous nation – is a referendum on his status as India’s leader.
On Wednesday, state elections in Karnataka, home to 65 million people, were closely watched for what it could predict about the national elections early next year in which Mr Modi will seek to extend his transformational premiership into a second decade.
In Karnataka, his Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, has been trying to cling to the single state it rules in the country’s wealthier south, where its Hindu nationalist policies have been much slower to receive.
Initially, the BJP not only boasted social welfare programs, but also used its usual campaign pamphlet to try to polarize the state’s electorate along religious lines. This included, as a last-ditch effort, an attempt to take benefits away from Muslims and distribute them to two electorally important Hindu castes, before the judiciary stepped in to sanction and interrupt the effort.
Having seemingly reached a saturation point in the number of votes that can be won by religious divisions in a place like Karnataka, where caste rivalry and divisions among Hindus remain a major electoral factor, the BJP then entered the race of confidence in the popular Mr. Modi. He arrived in full force and held 19 different rallies across the state.
Among them were long “roadshows” in which he drove through the streets of Bengaluru, the engineering center also known as Bangalore, in an open vehicle, decked out with flowers and pictures of himself. News reports estimate that anywhere from 10 to 50 tons of petals were needed for his longest roadshow, covering 26 miles, as supporters handed them out on the Prime Minister.
“I didn’t make much profit from that because the flowers are offered to Mr. Modi – he is like God,” said V. Manjunath, who owns a flower shop.
In the final days of the campaign, even as Manipur, a state in eastern India, was engulfed in deadly communal violence, Modi remained focused on Karnataka. His lieutenants promoted the idea of a “two-engine government”, with the BJP national government having huge resources to help the BJP state government. The message was clear: it doesn’t matter who the state leaders are, because there is one driver, Mr Modi.
The result of the vote in Karnataka is expected on Saturday. For the Indian National Congress opposition, which was crushed nationally by Mr Modi in the last two elections in 2014 and 2019, a victory there would be a much-needed morale booster.
The Congress has many things to offer in Karnataka that it does not have at the national level. It has largely kept its ranks united there and even tempted key BJP leaders to switch sides, while it has been mired in power struggles nationally and in other states.
It also tried in Karnataka to keep the electorate focused on issues such as rising food and fuel prices, as well as repeated allegations of corruption against local BJP leaders.
At one of the culminating meetings, Priyanka Gandhi, the secretary-general of the Congress, stressed to those present that her party was focused on “your problems” – guaranteeing electricity subsidies, small payments to women-run families and unemployed graduates, and rationing for families in need. .
She contrasted such practical assistance with the BJP leader’s grievance-laden attempts to portray himself as a victim despite his immense power. “Not in one program have they told you how many jobs they have created, how many hospitals they have built,” Ms Gandhi said as she scrutinized Mr Modi. “He just told you the list of how many times he was abused.”
According to polls, the Congress parties appeared to have strong chances of forming a government in Karnataka either alone or in a coalition. The hardest part, analysts said, would be keeping momentum in other state elections and scaling up Karnataka’s performance in the national election.
If Congress is to challenge Modi’s electoral juggernaut in the national race, it will need to assemble an expanded coalition of regional parties that have shown they can beat the BJP, and do so to uphold its claim to lead that coalition. it doesn’t derail.
The opposition should unite on key issues such as job creation and avoid “leadership-driven unity,” said Sandeep Shastri, an academic and political analyst in Bengaluru. “If it is a leadership-driven unit, then you have lost the battle before it even started – because the BJP wants it to be a leadership-driven battle, and against Modi they have no chance.”
When the Karnataka Congress Party took on an issue that was right in the BJP’s comfort zone, Mr Modi’s lieutenants seized on it.
In its campaign manifesto, Congress promised “decisive action” and even a ban on Bajrang Dal, a right-wing Hindu group often engaged in vigilante violence. The BJP, which has banned similar Muslim groups, quickly touted it as evidence of Congress’ disregard for Hindu values and appeasement of the minority group.
In recent years, Modi’s party and its supporters have raised several religiously charged issues in Karnataka, whose population is approximately 13 percent Muslim. BJP leaders and supporters banned girls from wearing the headscarf as part of their school uniform, restricted halal food and even called for an economic boycott of Muslims by banning them from doing business near Hindu temples.
According to analysts, the BJP’s move on those issues as the election approached was an admission that religious polarization simply solidified the support of a segment of voters it would have won anyway. In a sign of Mr Modi’s reign with his supporters, even those who disagree with the country’s divisive politics often do not blame him.
Evidence of the limited dividend of division was evident at the Shree Siddagangaa Mutt, an important temple institution of the Lingayat caste, a strong support base for the BJP, in the town of Tumkur.
In northern India, the BJP has successfully used religious polarization to unite Hindus and reduce caste differences. But in a demonstration of how caste allegiance in Karnataka does not necessarily translate into support for exclusionary politics, a majority of the 10,000 students in the schools and colleges the Lingayat institution runs are from other castes and religions.
“There is no doubt about their caste and creed – they stay together, eat together,” said Siddalinga Mahaswami, the head of the institution.
BJP leaders said they had not abandoned their Hindu nationalist agenda in the state, known as Hindutva, but simply stepped it up a notch during the election.
“Without the Hindutva agenda, there is no BJP,” said Chalavadi Swamy, a party member in the Karnataka Legislative Council. “But aggressively, we’re not taking it now.”
“In the north, Hindutva means Hindutva – everyone will follow,” said Mr. Swamy. “In South India it is very difficult to understand the game – the complexity is there.”
When the people of Karnataka went to vote, Mr Modi was already in another state, Rajasthan, where elections will be held later this year.