JASON GROVES: No one will say it out loud, but maybe this was a manifesto to stem the Conservative losses

Many previous governments have run out of ideas after more than a decade in power.

That cannot be said Rishi Sunak. The 80 pages Tory The manifesto published yesterday is packed with high-profile initiatives, whether it is reintroducing National Service, protecting the basic state pension from income tax or introducing an annual migration cap.

The political test is whether they are convincing enough to shake up an organization election that seems tied to a predetermined outcome – and whether they tell a story about the future that can win back disaffected conservative voters.

Some Tory MPs would have liked to see a package that was stronger.

The Prime Minister and his team have secured £18 billion in savings through a combination of welfare reforms and a crackdown on tax avoidance.

The political test of Rishi Sunak’s manifesto initiatives is whether they are persuasive enough to shake up an election that appears locked into a predetermined outcome.

The fixation on National Insurance is risky – the Prime Minister and Chancellor have already used it twice in six months without any measurable effect on the polls

Efficiency savings, such as reducing the size of the civil service, are expected to generate around an additional £10 billion.

The Tory high command could have gambled on wasting the money on two or three bold measures – abolishing inheritance tax, for example, would have cost around £7 billion.

Instead, they have chosen to offer a large package of smaller measures, with the aim of reaching a broader target group.

So there are modest tax cuts for retirees, families and first-time buyers, and small spending commitments for everything from expanding the role of local pharmacists to protecting subsidy measures for farmers.

By far the most expensive measure is to reduce national insurance by 2 cents for most employees and abolish it entirely for the self-employed.

Helping hardworking, ambitious people is a solid Tory message.

But the fixation on National Insurance is risky: the Prime Minister and Chancellor have already made two cuts to it in six months, without any measurable effect on the polls.

No doubt any single measure will work well with focus groups – in fact, this manifesto gives the impression that it is driven more by focus groups than by a political vision.

No one will say it out loud, but the manifesto may be intended to limit damage rather than provide a platform to win.

There are clear signs that the Conservatives are now focused on remaining a viable parliamentary force after the election.

Notably, campaign visits by Mr Sunak and other ministers are almost exclusively focused on Tory seats defending a majority of more than 10,000.

To this end, the manifesto sets out the key dividing line with Labor on taxation and the dangers of giving Sir Keir Starmer a crushing majority.

Don’t give Labor (and Sir Keir Starmer, pictured) a blank cheque, the Prime Minister said yesterday. Despite all the promises in the manifesto, this is perhaps the strongest message the Tories have in the remaining weeks

The Conservatives would reduce taxes for employees based on this document.

Labor won’t be able to say that when it launches its own manifesto tomorrow – the tax burden is likely to become even higher under Sir Keir.

Don’t give Labor a blank cheque, the Prime Minister said yesterday.

Despite all the promises in the manifesto, this is perhaps the strongest message the Tories have in the remaining weeks.