Critical New York House elections could be defined by a new problem: snow
The race was dominated by an international migrant crisis and attracted $15 million in outside spending. But Tuesday's special election for the House of Representatives to replace George Santos in New York could come down to the most local of problems: an ill-timed snowstorm on Election Day.
Forecasters called for a half-foot or more of snow to blanket parts of Queens and Long Island, much of which would fall during key voting hours. Local leaders warned motorists to stay off the roads.
The winter mess left both parties scrambling to rewrite last-minute campaign plans and advanced modeling to understand how the storm could affect turnout. But with the outcome expected to be extraordinarily close, the most useful tools were suddenly old-fashioned shovels and snow plows — which wary Democrats feared would be used by Nassau County Republicans to their constituents' advantage.
“For partisans on both sides who believe in divine intervention, the weather will decide whether God is a Democrat or a Republican,” joked Steve Israel, a former Democratic congressman from the district, before the flakes began to fall.
“And whether he votes in a special election,” he added.
Democrats have pinned enormous hopes on the district, an affluent and largely suburban area that voted for President Biden by eight points in 2020 before flipping to Santos and Republicans two years later.
The party has outspent Republicans by more than two to one and has nominated a 30-year political veteran, Tom Suozzi. A former congressman who himself held the seat, Mr. Suozzi vowed to restore normalcy to the district after the expulsion of Mr. Santos, a serial liar who faced 23 federal felonies.
But Suozzi's campaign has faced intense pushback from suburban voters who soured on Mr. Biden and especially his handling of the migrant crisis at the border and in New York City.
His opponent, Mazi Pilip, a Republican lawmaker, has run a relatively low-key campaign, attacking Suozzi as a supporter of open borders while defending himself against attacks from Democrats who say she is a threat to abortion rights.
Democrats entered Election Day with a theoretical advantage based on early and absentee voting, a potentially dangerous position for Republicans if turnout plummets on Tuesday.
About 80,000 people had already cast ballots through Sunday, when the early voting period ended, a robust turnout for an off-cycle election. About 11,000 more registered Democrats cast ballots than registered Republicans, according to Democratic leaders. Mr Suozzi's advantage could be smaller, depending on how many voters break with their party and the distribution of independent votes.
“I'd rather be us than them,” said Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs.
But many Republican voters still prefer to vote on Election Day, and their party is used to closing a gap. The party has won virtually every major election on Long Island since 2021, thanks in part to its turnout operation.
Peter T. King, a former Republican congressman, admitted that the snow could cost his party a few percentage points. Still, he predicted that the newly revived Republican machine in Nassau County was up to the task.
Mr King said party committee members were already making arrangements to get elderly people in need of help to the polls. Mr. Suozzi's campaign made a similar offer: “❄️Do you need a ride to the polls?❄️,” he said. wrote on Xwith a link to a self-made taxi service.
“It's fucking crazy, we haven't had a real snowstorm in a long time,” he said Monday. “This one seems to just list voting hours!”
Forecasts late Monday suggested the heaviest snow would fall on Long Island's north shore, with smaller amounts further south in communities like Massapequa, which tend to vote heavily Republican.
Because this is Long Island, a vast suburban area where politics and public works have a history of intermingling, Democrats were suspicious that Republicans who control Nassau County government and each of the three townships would selectively clear the way for their voters.
“Of course we're concerned about where they're plowing the roads,” Mr. Jacobs said.
Delia DeRiggi-Whitton, the Democratic minority leader of the Nassau County Legislature, took it upon herself Monday to write letters warning Bruce Blakeman, the county's Republican executive, and others not to let county employees loose on ” snow days” so they could help. the campaign effort.
Mr. Blakeman responded that he was “personally offended” that Democrats would question the integrity of his administration and vowed to clean up the streets with justice.
“I have told everyone involved directly that no community should be favored and that they should do their work according to their usual practices, except starting earlier,” Mr. Blakeman wrote.
Ellen Jan reporting contributed.