Revenge spending helped drive prices up. The trend is turning.

After two years of spending heavily on vacations and other experiences taken away from them during pandemic lockdowns, Americans may be on the verge of a retreat — a cooling that could help slow inflation.

The country witnessed two years of red-hot “revenge spending,” the name economists and business leaders gave to a spike in recreational spending that followed the coronavirus lockdowns. As demand increased, so did prices for airline tickets, hotels, and other sought-after services.

But many of those price points are now cooling. Hotel prices have recently climbed much more slowly on a year-over-year basis, and airfares have leveled off. If that trend continues this summer, it could contribute to a slowdown in general services inflation, something the Fed has been waiting for.

“We are seeing some slowdown in the so-called revenge categories,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior US economist at BNP Paribas.

New inflation data to be released on Tuesday could reveal whether gains in travel-related expenses slowed further in May. Some economists doubt it: Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect hotel prices and other recreation-related costs to have risen in May, the start of the summer holiday season.

Omair Sharif, founder of the company Inflation Insights, expects airfare and hotel costs to have contributed a little to inflation in May’s data before deducting significantly in June and July. He doesn’t expect hotels and domestic air travel to see the same increase this summer as last year.

“We just don’t get the same kind of pop anymore,” he said. “Air fares have virtually come to a standstill.”

Not only are consumers returning to more normal living patterns, they may also become increasingly cautious as they face high costs after several years of rapid inflation – and fear that the Fed’s rate hikes could soon push the economy into recession Push.