Ukraine says it shot down Kinzhal missiles, one of Russia’s most advanced weapons
The new long-range missiles, attack drones and tanks and other armored vehicles that President Volodymyr Zelensky has obtained from allies in recent days will meet many, but not all, of the weapons requirements Ukraine said it needed for a counteroffensive against Russia.
Military analysts believe that at least some of the latest batch of Western weapons will soon be sent to the front lines to cut off Russian supply routes and attack their artillery systems and command centers in southern and eastern Ukraine. Others may be delivered later, including in the fall or afterward, to help Mr. Zelensky plan for future operations as the war continues.
But the robust package — announced as Zelensky visited four European capitals over the past three days — may indicate that Western officials now believe Ukraine could recapture significant swathes of territory in the counter-offensive, said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a former intelligence officer for the Danish government. army.
“We wouldn’t be sending so many weapons to Ukraine at this point if the thought was that they were unlikely to succeed,” said Mr Kirkegaard, who is now a senior fellow in the German Marshall Fund’s research group. In Brussels.
Some Western officials hope that if the Ukrainians make substantial territorial gains, they will have more leverage in any peace negotiations.
Just last week, Mr. Zelensky had that warned that the anticipated counter-offensive against Russia, expected to begin this spring or early summer, could be postponed unless Kyiv quickly gained more weapons.
European allies responded within hours.
Perhaps the most significant commitment came from Germany, which announced on Saturday — just before Zelensky landed in Berlin — that it would send Ukraine an additional 30 Leopard tanks and 20 armored fighting vehicles, 16 air defense systems, more than 200 drones and a slew. of other weapons and ammunition. The leaders of France and Italy also made vague promises to send light tanks, ammunition and air defense systems.
The additional Leopards and infantry fighting vehicles that Germany is sending as part of its package worth €2.7 billion, or nearly $3 billion, will be especially useful on Ukraine’s southern steppe, where the Russian controlled territorysaid Mr. Kirkegaard, well suited “for tank or maneuver warfare”.
But Max Bergmann, the director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that it was not clear that all the newly committed German tanks would arrive soon. (Berlin has already delivered 18 Leopard tanks to Ukraine.)
However, he said the commitment “gives Ukraine a measure of confidence” as military planners prepare for a protracted battle.
By early March, only 31 percent of tanks and 76 percent of other armored fighting vehicles had been delivered to Ukraine for the upcoming counteroffensive, according to classified US military assessments recently leaked, though US officials have said many more have been delivered to Ukraine. the months after that. The Biden administration has also pledged to send 31 US-made Abrams tanks to Ukraine, but they are not expected to arrive until the fall at the earliest.
The promised new air defense systems may allay US concerns that Ukraine didn’t have enough to protect itself as the counter-offensive approached. Four of the 16 air defense systems recently committed by Germany are considered the most advanced on the market.
The newly promised long-range Storm Shadow missiles, which Britain pledged on Thursday, help answer a long-standing request from Ukraine. The United States has so far resisted sending U.S. long-range missiles to Ukraine, in part to avoid escalating the war with weapons that Ukraine could use to reach Russian territory.
Mr Kirkegaard said the long range drones Britain promised on Monday pose a particular threat to the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean port of Sevastopol and other locations in and near Crimea, including the bridge across the Kerch Strait connecting occupied Crimea to Russia.
Crimea has been an important staging post for the Russians operating in conquered territory in southern Ukraine.